UPDATE: though this is preliminary, word is getting out now that these cases, so far and i stress so far, are mild. The virus might be taking the spread easier, hurt host less route. It is still early, but this is encouraging.
Global financial markets were roiled and sent into a bit of futures shock overnight, presumably due to the news that the U.K. and Israel were “red listing” South Africa and five neighboring countries. This was seen by those reading tea leaves as the type of panic move you might see in a Hollywood movie. Indeed there is palpable fear on the part of scientists as to what this variant may bring, however, it exists mostly in the hypothetical and there is no evidence that vaccine immunity is seriously threatened.
To start with, it appears that while “Nu” is outcompeting Delta, it is doing so in regions where Delta is more dormant and with low vaccination rates. Bloom Lab has a lengthy thread detailing why we should not be panicking. Concerned, evaluating, and being responsible, but we are not to the “send in the HAZMAT suits and lock the town down” stage.
There is a lot to unpack, but the bottom line is your ability to defeat a variant is multi-pronged, so panic about vaccine escape, while it is possible, is not warranted. We also have no firm evidence it is able to outcompete Delta, as it is spreading in areas where, like I said, Delta does not seem to be competing with it. All of this is subject to change with new data, however.
There is other good news, in a sense. I have several sources of confirmation that the six cases of breakthrough transmission with the Nu Variant, all are said to be asymptomatic.
I am posting Eric Feigl-Ding but perhaps won’t be choosing to quote him in the future. He is hyperventilating, and seems to think it is bad the travelers, Pfizer vaccinated, tested positive for it.
These travelers have a high viral load but as previously mentioned, are said to be asymptomatic. This could be seen as positive-if you are vaccinated, and you have no comorbidities. Vaccinated people will get variant infections, it will happen, so if Pfizer is working to prevent severe disease, that is a key “Can we sleep tonight?” question.
It is not the only “Can we sleep tonight?” question. One of the things that gets overlooked are the aforementioned comorbidities. These can have the practical effect of being unvaccinated, so a highly transmissible variant with similar virulence, that does little to prevent transmission from the vaccinated is a noteworthy concern.
So far we have uncovered no symptomatic cases of the new variant among those who are vaccinated. With enough volume, that will almost certainly change, but if breakthrough is not drastically different than Delta this is still something the current game plan can handle.
All of that says is that it might be, and this is just based upon preliminary modelling, that the variant may not seriously sicken the vast majority of the vaccinated, but the vaccine may do next to nothing with this one to prevent transmission from the vaccinated. Again, a lot we don’t know.
Now I want to move onto Dr. Monica Gandhi from the University of California at San Francisco, because she is much less unnvered.
This is basically from what I can gather, saying vaccines will most likely still be effective, but she is referring to Astra-Zeneca’s vaccine here. Taken with the Pfizer vaxxed travelers in Hong Kong, the early signs seem to imply solid protection if you are vaxxed. Again, very early in this discovery process.
This one is very important. Dr. Gandhi suggests while the virus might adapt, so do the antibodies.
I suppose the easiest way to describe this post, is think of the virus as knocking on doors, looking for a party. The virus might sneak into the vaxxed, but will quickly get thrown out. Eventually it will find its way into unsecured (unvaxxed) doorways and tear up your house.
Here she expresses clear confidence in the ability of vaccines to respond to the variant.
This is also echoed by this doctor with a new expert thread here-
This is all a very fluid situation. And none of this is to imply that you should ease off the protection gas pedal and blow this off. The U.K. and Israel’s response is concerning, because we do not need to be geniuses to figure out some heavy science was shown to people in charge. And Boris Johnson is not a proactive type of leader. That said, it is quite likely that the bulk of concern is focused on the health risk to the unvaccinated or immunosuppressed.
And even with all of this, we don’t know the R-naught, we don’t know the severity, or even at this point have a handle on the actual transmissibility. We just know there are a significant number of spike mutations that could assist in antibody evasion, but again, it is unlikely at this point that it would completely evade vaccines and send us to square one. And even then it would not be square one, as science now has a handle on how to create variant specific boosters.
Finally, and I can not stress this enough, these doctors I have quoted are otherwordly intelligent. I am not usually in the bottom half of bears in the room when it comes to intelligence, but these folks are on another level.
My intent was not to try to keep pace with them and stray out of my lane, but simply to present their analysis in the hopes that if some see this story when they wake up they might be less uneasy and have more optimism about this development, rather than panic.
We have entered another wave as it is, and it is likely this variant will have an impact, but it is just as likely that you will be protected by being fully vaxxed, from severe disease. And that is the best we can hope for. While there is a lot of talk about “breakthrough” infections, this misses the point. The point is at some point all of us are likely to be exposed to a variant that we would show positivity for. This does not mean the vaccine is not working.
Keeping us alive is the vaccine’s job. It was never realistic to expect perfect immunity, and the media did a grave disservice in hinting at that possibility.
The ultimate goal is not to expect to never get Covid, but to survive it with reasonably minimal effects. But that goal is only feasible long term-
If you are vaccinated.
-ROC
I am weak, dealing with a stretch of fatigue I have been unable to pinpoint. We continue to monitor for cancer recurrence. This is the only living my health allows me to earn and I appreciate you. My newsletter is unaffected. Sign up here to subscribe! It publishes every Wednesday and is full of original reporting, laughs, and fun!
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-ROC