Here are some updates on the Omicron variant and on COVID-19 in general. The news on this front has moved quite fast this week and there is lot more to come.
- More countries around the world joined the travel ban against South Africa and neighboring countries
- Israel closed its border to all foreigners for 2 weeks. So did Japan late in the day.
- UK will require travelers to take a PCR test on day 2 and self-isolate until a negative result is returned (which seems like a better idea than country bans)
- Additional countries have reported Omicron cases such Germany, Austria, Denmark, Australia and Canada.
- COVID cases in S. Africa have been on the rise — 3,220 cases on Saturday, 2,828 on Friday, 892 a week ago. www.worldometers.info/…
- S. Africa hospitalizations have been rising — this week 664, last week 571; much sharper rise in Gauteng Province. www.nicd.ac.za/…
- What has scientists concerned is the large number of mutations in the genome of the virus, some of which are known to increase transmissibility and reduce immunity from current vaccines.
- Vaccine makers are gearing up to evaluate the virus against booster shots and to adapt their vaccines to the Omicron variant, if necessary; the best estimate is 100 days to make the new vaccine in production quantities.
- Rt, the effective Reproductive Number, is estimated at 2.0 in South Africa which is is quite high. Current estimate of Rt in the US is 1.1, although there are significant differences across states.
- There is a lot we do not know at this point — measuring transmissibility, virulence and immune evasion of this new variant will take time; we do not have sufficient data at this point.
In this fast moving news cycle and in the presence of opinions from non-experts and rogue agents, there is a lot of misinformation and disinformation out there, which we need to guard against and help neutralize with data from reliable sources.
Dr. Richard Lessells, a leading South African infectious disease specialist, cautions there we do not have sufficient data to make calls whether this variant causes mild or severe disease.
S. Africa has one of the best surveillance system (which is why this variant was discovered so quickly) and more data will provide answers in the coming weeks.
How much has the new variant spread so far?
- See the table from bnonews.com/… below (updated at 6:00 p.m. ET, Mon, Nov 29)
Praise for S. Africa
There is unanimous praise from the scientific and diplomatic community for S. Africa’s transparency in this matter.
Condemnation of travel bans
There is almost universal condemnation for the blanket bans on travel from S. Africa and neighboring countries, only two of which have reported Omicron cases so far.
The variant has not been detected in the U.S., where genomic surveillance is quite weak to begin with, but what’s the probability that it is not here already?
The next COVID-19 wave
Even without this variant, a new wave seems to be forming in Europe and the USA as winter approaches. Case numbers in many countries are higher than in the previous wave.
Vaccination levels are still low in the U.S. — only 11% have gotten the booster shots.
Disinformation
There is a tsunami of disinformation about COVID-19 and now about Omicron from the usual suspects on social media, right-wing media outlets and from republicans in general.
This is from the former WH physician and now congressman — what a disgraceful character!
This is the barrage of insidious garbage drilled into fox viewers’ heads every day. At what point will fox viewers realize that these merchants of death are not their friends?
Dr. Fauci is relentless attacked by the right, but he is keeping his cool and keeps on fighting the lies from the GOP.
Some more technical data
Do viruses evolve to become less deadly "to keep their hosts alive and thereby transmit more?”
- There is no historical evidence to support the thesis
- The following thread contains a good explanation
How did so many mutations appear together so abruptly?
- A possible explanation provided by virologists is that the virus evolved in a single immunocompromised patient with a long duration infection.
- Scientists have known about this and studied the mechanism before with the emergence of earlier variants. E.g., see www.science.org/… and www.nejm.org/…
- In immunocompromised patients, the immune system is not able to fully clear out the virus, which gives time for the virus to generate more mutants; the ones that resist the immune system survive and thrive. The cycle repeats many times and the virus gets “fitter” each time. It is evolution in action in a relatively short time scale within one individual.
Image of the day -
Check out these diaries for more in-depth info. on Omicron —
Epilogue
The COVID pandemic is hardly over, as we are reminded every day; nor is the ability to virus to evolve. Even without this variant, a new wave seems to be forming in Europe and the USA as winter approaches. Anti-vaxx sentiments, pushed by the right in many countries, is making things worse, so is waning immunity from vaccines. The probability of new variants arising remains high so far as the virus circulates in a large section of the population.
The B.1.1.529 variant may create new challenges or it may fizzle out, we do not know yet. It may have vaccine escape properties, but vaccines could still provide protection against severe disease.
This is a global problem and requires a global response. Otherwise, we will be chasing variants forever. The whole world needs to get vaccinated. Nobody is safe until everyone is safe
As we all understand, we need to stay vigilant, get the booster shot if we have not already done so, keep practicing masking and social distancing protocols, encourage others to do so and keep an eye on the news from reliable sources.
And let’s keep fighting the right-wing disinformation campaign, even if it means we save their sorry lives. Let’s keep our friends and family informed and expose the GOP as the enemy of our health, our pocket books and our Democracy.
This is an open diary for folks here to add to the discussion based on information they have gleaned from reliable sources and to ask/answer questions about Omicron.
Let’s keep our discussion rooted in science and reliable sources and avoid tidbits of info. based on hearsay.