There is much angst, anger, and panic here on DKos and in liberal social media circles about What Went Wrong last night. I am wallowing in it as well. Many people have settled on the theory that Democrats lost because their elected officials and establishment pundit class weren’t aggressive enough in passing, promoting, and selling a bold, progressive economic plan. And, boy, do I ever want Democrats to nuke the filibuster, enact a true universal healthcare system, paid family and sick leave, no cost childcare and college, a $15 minimum wage, as well as pass other progressive policies like police reform, voter protections, and increase the size of the Senate and the Supreme Court. But I am under no illusion that if democrats do this a winning majority of voters will rain votes on Democrats in gratitude.
Democrats, liberals, and especially progressives, deeply care about progressive economic policies and therefore think a majority of voters will as well. But the last twenty years of midterm elections show that this is not what happens. Medicaid expansion, the Affordable Care Act, and an economy pulled out of free fall, that then came raring back, weren’t enough to win midterm elections during Obama’s presidency. A tax cut, record stock market highs, low unemployment, and an ongoing historic economic expansion couldn’t win off presidential year elections for Trump and the GOP. And as results in Virginia and New Jersey show, a competent pandemic response, stimulus checks, child tax credit money, Medicaid expansion in VA, and a $15 minimum wage in NJ, did not result in a rush of grateful voters to the polls to reward Murphy and McAuliffe. Voters in several states have passed citizen generated referenda to increase the minimum wage and legalize pot while voting for republicans on the very same ballot, like Ron DeSantis and Doug Ducey.
Several pundits and people posited that because a plurality of voters in VA exit polling said The Economy was their most important issue, and that a “moderate” like TMac lost, surely this means that the answer is to do something different and run on a progressive economic message. Governor Murphy and democrats in NJ enacted many progressive policies and the long chased after non-college educated white voters—the people I’ve been told will respond to a progressive populist economic agenda—voted in droves for republicans.
Some of this is because the economy is now seen through a polarized partisan lens. Remember how the day after Trump was inaugurated republicans suddenly gushed about how Trump gave us the Best Economy Ever! The same allegedly crappy economy Obama presided over the previous day. Well, those same VA exit polls demonstrate this polarization.
I’m guessing that all of those Youngkin voters who said the economy sucked were more motivated by GOP messaging on taxes and socialism. I doubt a progressive economic plan would have motivated them to switch teams. In fact it may have motivated them to vote for republicans even more.
What did motivate white parents and grandparents of school aged children to vote Team Red was a coordinated, months long, relentless and ongoing campaign against the evils of Democratic controlled schools indoctrinating children with Critical Race Theory. FishFry has and excellent diary up about her election day spent with a “blonde, GOP Karen.” This woman’s family benefitted form Northam and Biden’s competent pandemic response, received stimulus checks, and likely got a child tax credit. It didn’t even register. She is all about the CRT.
Culture wars. Racial resentment. Othering and demonizing the political opposition. This has been the republican schtick since the Southern Strategy and Lee Atwater. And they’ve stuck to it for decades. Because it works with enough voters to give them a winning coalition. Former Republicans and Never Trumpers have been telling us this for the past 5-6 years. They should know since they helped build this. Hate them and be angry with them for their part in this all you want, I do. But they know what they know.
The last two tweets are from a former Republican Hill staffer, GOP operative, and Clinton, Northam, Biden, and McAuliffe voting Virginia resident.
But what about core Democratic voters? Not the situational allies or the 5-10% of the electorate who are chronic malcontents who always vote against the party in power? Will aggressively running on and enacting progressive economic policies motivate them to turn out in greater numbers in elections, especially non-presidential year elections? Not this year. As stated above, New Jersey and Virginia democrats DID deliver on several progressive priorities. And this is what happened:
Hey, I’m all for giving our base voters every reason to turn out. Let’s do it and see if it works. But I’m skeptical that enacting every progressive with list policy into actual law would solve the longstanding problem of lower base turnout in non-presidential year elections. Kudos to the republicans for creating a political identity that includes showing up to vote in every election.
What will work? That’s a subject for another diary. But what I do believe elections this past decade have shown is that progressive economic policies—or even the general state of the economy—are not a defining issue that will cause a winning majority of people to vote for Democrats. Absolutely pursue progressive economic policies when in power because we want them. But don’t ever assume voters will reward Democrats for it.