Today, I am going to be looking at three more Texas state house districts: HD 52, HD 54, and HD 115.
TX HD 52
TX HD 52 is currently located in Williamson County (just north of Austin), covering the community of Round Rock. The district has trended very heavily to the left under the existing boundaries, having gone from supporting Mitt Romney by around 12 points to supporting Donald Trump in 2016 by around a percentage point to supporting Joe Biden by about 10 points. In 2018, Dem James Talarico flipped the district, winning the open seat by about 3 points, and was reelected by a similar margin in 2020. Unfortunately, the district has been redrawn for 2022 to be considerably more Republican leaning, with Round Rock (which leans heavily Dem) being carved out the district, along with the part of Georgetown currently in the district, and the heavily Republican-leaning areas (east of the district’s current boundary) being added in. Under the new boundaries, Trump would have now carried the district by a little more than 4 points in 2020. Still, this is quite a bit closer than his 2016 performance in the (new) district, where he would have carried it by over 15 points, so the overall trends in the district still seem to be favorable to Dems. Interestingly, unlike a lot of other suburban districts, which are quite a bit redder down-ballot, Dem M.J. Hegar didn’t underperform Biden by all that much here, as she lost the district (under the new boundaries) by about 8 points in the 2020 U.S. Senate Race, though this margin is likely due to her being from this region of the state. In addition, as a result of the unfavorable redistricting (for Dems), Talarico has opted to run in a different district this cycle, making HD 52 open. I’m classifying the district as Likely Republican. Given how much redder the new district is and the lack of a Dem incumbent, the Republicans should be heavily favored to flip the seat (making it one of their easiest pick-up opportunities), especially considering that 2022 is expected to favor the GOP overall. However, the district still has the potential to be competitive, given how favorable the trends have been to Dems overall. At least two Republicans are running for the seat: Caroline Harris and Nelson Jarrin, while Luis Echegaray seems to be the Dem nominee.
TX HD 54
TX HD 54 is located in the central part of the state (a bit north of Austin) and currently contains all of Lampasas County and the southwestern part of Bell County. Under the existing boundaries, the district has remained a moderately Republican leaning and fairly inelastic district, as it supported both Romney and Trump by about 7 points. The Dems were able to improve on these margins in 2018, with Dem Beto O’Rourke losing the district by about just about a percentage point, and in 2020, with Biden coming within a quarter of a percentage point of carrying the district. At the state house level, the district has been somewhat competitive for the most part, with Republican Brad Buckley winning the seat by between 7 and 8 points in 2018 (after defeating then incumbent Republican Scott Cosper in the primary) and being reelected by just under 7 points in 2020. For 2022, redistricting has changed the boundaries of HD 54 considerably, with Lampasas County being removed, and the district now essentially being “donut-shaped” in Bell County, with the center of the county carved out of the district, including half of the Dem-leaning community of Killeen. As a result, the district has become quite a bit redder, as Trump would have now carried it by about 7 points. For this cycle, I am classifying the district as Likely Republican. With more favorable boundaries, Buckley should be heavily favored, but the district still has the potential to be competitive, especially considering that it doesn’t seem to be as elastic as a lot of other TX districts, so perhaps a bad national environment for the Dems won’t make as big an impact here. The Democrats already have at least one candidate running for the seat, Jonathan Hildner. (Note: for those who are interested, I previously wrote a DK post solely on HD 54 in March of this year, before the redistricting plans were announced.)
TX HD 115
TX HD 115 is located in the northwestern corner of Dallas County. The district swung very heavily to the left in 2016 under the existing boundaries, having gone from supporting Romney by 12 points to supporting Hillary Clinton by nearly 8 points. The district was also very close at the state house level in 2016, with Republican Matt Rinaldi just narrowly winning reelection by under 2 points, after having easily won the seat by over 17 points in 2014 when it was open. The Democrats made even further progress here in 2018, with Dem Julie Johnson flipping the seat, easily defeating Rinaldi by between 13 and 14 points, and Beto carrying the district by almost 18 points, which is nearly 10-points better than Clinton’s margin in the district. The 2020 results were fairly similar to 2018, both at the top of the ticket (with Biden performing similarly to Beto), and at the state house level (with Johnson more or less matching her 2018 margin). Interestingly, while redistricting has changed the district’s boundaries somewhat for 2022, with the district extending further south and the community of Carrollton being removed, the district’s partisan lean has basically remained unchanged, in contrast with a lot of other (previously competitive) Dem held districts that have been made safer. Under the new boundaries, Biden would have carried the district by almost 19 points, about just a percentage point better than his margin under the current boundaries. (Romney’s, Clinton’s, and Beto’s new margins are also within a percentage point of their margins under the existing boundaries.) While HD 115 seems to be comfortably Dem at presidential level now, the district does seem to be quite a bit redder down-ballot, as Hegar would have only carried it by about 11 points (under the new boundaries). For 2022, I’m classifying the district as Lean Democrat. Given how rapidly blue HD 115 is trending, Johnson should be favored somewhat. However, with the national environment expected to favor Republicans, it seems conceivable to expect a competitive race, as seen through the 2021 Virginia Elections, where many of the Democrats (running in districts similar to HD 115) had competitive races. The Republicans have at least one candidate running for the seat, Melisa Denis.
Thanks to Texas Legislative Council (for the statewide/presidential election results under the new boundaries, as well as the 2020 statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), Daily Kos Elections (for the remaining statewide/pres results under the existing boundaries), New York Times (for precinct-level data), and Patrick Svitek (for 2022 candidate list).