So recently Trump has made multiple public appearances and statements where he has gone out of his way to promote pro-vaccine messages.
First he appears with
O’Reilly and tells his base that he is vaccinated and boosted.
Then he appears with
Candace Owens and says the vaccine is safe and effective.
Then his base lost its collective mind. Alex Jones goes off on him. Candace Owens said he was old and out of touch. Marjorie Taylor Greene issued a
message trying to explain Trump’s apparent contradiction. Conservatives don’t know what to make of it, and honestly neither do I.
The one thing Trump has always had going for him, is that he puts out a consistent message. He has a simple talking point. It may not be true. It may not make sense. It may contradict other parts of his speech, but he sticks with it. He repeats it. His followers chant it. Every part of the conservative echosphere amplifies it. So what gives?
The Republican message on the virus and vaccine is pretty clear (and stupid).
1) Vaccines are scary. They’re made with aborted foetuses, and bad things happened to some of the millions of people who took them.
2) No one should have to do anything or suffer any consequences. Real men get immunity the old-fashioned way. Asking about my personal stance on vaccination violates HIPAA.
3) I fought the virus super aggressively. Biden has more deaths than me.
4) China is lying about everything. This is all their fault. They should pay.
5) I believe in science. I have all the best science. Tony Fauci was wrong about everything and I was right. This is all his fault. He should pay.
6) This is basically the flu. Do you know how many people die of the flu every year? Republicans don’t believe in undermining our liberties or damaging the economy over a few [hundred] thousand deaths.
7) Why are we even talking about this? The media is creating a story to hurt America / Real Americans / White people / The Republican Party. If we pretend the virus doesn't exist it will go away.
This has been the consistent message that Republicans have echoed in varying flavors since the beginning of the pandemic. So why now is Trump paddling against it? Especially now that he is out of power, rather than 2020 when covid response could have been his issue? His position is not “Mandates are bad”, his message is: “The vaccine is safe. The vaccine saves lives. You should follow the government’s advice on vaccines.” You can’t make statements like that and then fall back to the Republican talking points. They don’t fit.
Trump cannot own the vaccine issue. Anti-vaxx and anti-government conspiracy have been part of his core brand since the beginning. He could preach vaccination from dawn to dusk, and he won’t take the issue away from Joe Biden and the Democrats. He can’t pivot to good government and rationality now, since he’s out of power. Trump has far more to lose on culture war issues than he has to gain on economic issues. Trump and the GOP’s core issue is socialism and fear of government. He can appeal to his base by protecting them against mandates, while appealing to elites by a pro-business, anti-tax, anti-government message. Boosting the vaccine as safe and effective undermines his anti-government message.
I see two possibilities:
1) Trump is angry that DeSantis has gotten to the right of him as the leader of vaccine resistance in government. He is trying to draw a contrast by carving out a moderate position as pro-freedom and also pro-science. That won’t work because the country is very divided, and the Republican populist base in particular despise equivocation and moderation. If Trump was angry at DeSantis, he would fight him by doubling down on being the loudest, dumbest and rightist. Trump will never win by tacking to the middle.
2) Trump sees the pandemic as an ongoing concern, and eventually the death toll will undermine Republican resistance, morale and population. I don’t see it. The demographics are bad. Covid will kill primarily old people. But even most old people survive it, especially if they are vaccinated. Trump doesn’t have to come out against vaccines, just against mandates and be quiet about the rest. Economic elites will probably be annoyed, but he’s not going to lose them. He’ll win a lot more by insisting that Trump and the GOP are the party of a return to normalcy, and the halcyon days of 2019. Look around. People aren’t wearing masks. People are tired of the pandemic and they want to go back to the way things were. “Make America Great Again” resonates now more than ever.
So why has Trump suddenly lost his touch? A year ago he led 40% of the country in an attack on the Constitution. Now he’s telling his base to be reasonable and tolerant, and that the college-educated doctors know what’s best for them? It makes you think maybe he has been replaced with one of those lizard clones...