Note — didn’t see Mark's diary on this topic before posting this one. He says pretty much the same thing from the same sources.
Go straight to the source for all the details but the bottom line is that unless you have been infected once and shot twice (or, hopefully) shot thrice, you will have minimal protection against Omicron. In addition, all the fears about high transmission rates are proving to be true. And to just keep up the “good” news, it does not seem to be any less severe and/or deadly as of yet. Now, for some of the details.
The loss of protection data comes from studies out of a lab in South Africa, led by Alex Sigal. What they learned is that (small good news), the virus is using the same door keyhole to get in. Bad news, it is now a much better lock-picker, and can avoid much of our vaccine protection. From the link above (Katlyn Jetelina)
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Among people with the 2-dose Pfizer series (orange dots), neutralizing antibodies took a significant hit —40 fold reduction— with Omicron compared to the original virus. This is far higher than we’ve seen with any previous variants of concern (Delta had a 5 fold decrease; Beta had a 8 fold decrease). But, honestly, Omicron’s decrease is not as bad as some expected.
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Among people with the 2-dose series + previous infection (green dots), neutralizing antibodies took a hit from Omicron but are still relatively high.
My interpretation of this — two shots leaves you almost bare. Kinda like summer clothes in a New England blizzard. You aren’t naked, but it is gonna feel that way. BUT — if you have been sick PLUS two shots — you are now properly dressed. MY interpretation, and Jetelina’s as well, is that we can probably use one infection as a proxy for another shot, thus those with three shots will still have decent, but probably not 80%+ protection.
Moving on to transmissibility, let’s see if this picture populates. (Credit Jetelina from the above cited study)
Can you say “vertical”? That is a three day doubling rate, and way faster than Delta. That is in South Africa — but here is what she says about Britain and the U.S.
We’re starting to get data from the UK and it’s really not looking good. On Dec. 2, 2% of their PCR swabs were positive for Omicron. This is compared to less than 0.01% positive PCRs on Nov 20. Mathematical models estimated an R(t) of 3.47 in the UK right now. This is likely an overestimation, but even the best case scenario (i.e. lower bound) of the R(t) is concerning at 2.75. This tells us that high levels of Delta and/or immunity are not stopping Omicron in the UK. And it probably won’t stop Omicron in the United States either.
Finally — hospitalizations (and ultimately, death rate). Another ugly graph.
Jetelina’s final comments:
There’s a good chance Omicron will outcompete Delta in the United States. This coupled this with the high unvaccinated rate and lab data showing partial vaccine immunity will result in a substantial Winter wave. The rate of breakthrough cases will be higher, but I’m hopeful that boosters will largely keep people out of the hospital.
We’re all exhausted. The scientists. The healthcare workers. The parents. The pharmacists. The teachers. Everyone. But the virus isn’t. And it won’t be until we all take it seriously. Wear a good mask. Ventilate spaces. Test, test, test. And, for the love of all things, go get your vaccine and/or booster.
Just as an aside, there is a segment of the population that willingly got their first shots, and willingly got their booster. And there is another segment that under pressure got their first two shots. And finally, there is that last, very red, very trumpy group that remains unvaccinated. My not so bold prediction. The first group will have break-through infections but over all do way better than the next two groups. The second group will split into two — and those that recognize getting the vaccine was ultimately a good thing will join group one. And those that don’t will join the third group. And almost all of them will eventually get sick, will overwhelm our healthcare system AGAIN, and about 2% or more (given ages and comorbidities) will die.
Pack your bags, we are getting ready to go on a long winter “vacation” from hell