And no, I don’t mean the neo-Confederates trying to secede. I mean the civil war within the GQP. (I love that “GQP” thing!)
I am not going to try to list all the signs of the growing split in the Ugly Party. You folks know them. I was chortling reading today’s GNR which had a lovely list of examples. Delicious.
I just want to make a simple point which is to me the single most important political issue we face:
A fractured GQP will get killed in elections from Nome to Miami. For the first time in decades, progressive initiatives have a chance.
The iron grip of reactionary truculence which has strangled our nation since Nixon has been based on an unholy but ultimately unsustainable alliance between wealthy technocracy and populist resentment. We all know that, but too often we allow anxiety to lead us to forget that that alliance is unsustainable. Wealth, poverty, and religious fanaticism share few actual interests. Eventually, the gravitational forces were going to pull those spheres out of the diabolically engineered force field soldering them awkwardly together.
To keep the troops in line despite continuously preying on their economic resources, the corporatists have had to feed the beast of paranoid fantasy ever more radically. Remember the Tea Party? It seemed a political master stroke but within a couple of cycles the monster began to turn on its masters. Trump was the last step in the GQP masters losing control of their own party. The writing was on the wall, but the Masters couldn’t resist continuing to feed the beast that was getting them tax breaks and election wins from an electorate that could never be allowed to realize the predators feeding off of it.
The patchwork engineering simply could not last. Eventually, the populist monster was going to turn on its technocratic masters. I have been waiting for this for years. Well, it’s happening.
Mitch McConnell’s speech was a watershed moment in American politics. Don’t misunderstand me. I give him not one ounce of moral credit. He is himself a technocratic monster, a profoundly evil man, in some ways worse than Trump. But he knows how to count. And he knew that the game was changing. As always, he made a calculation about how to minimize costs and maximize benefits. He is clearly hoping to limit the damage and get the GOP back in the saddle as quickly as possible. Part of his calculation is that he couldn’t go so far as to vote to convict.
But he knows that the long delayed civil war is at hand. The corporatist technocrats have to fight it out with the crazies whose mania they have stoked for decades. The Malevolent Turtle knows that 20% or so of the GOP base will not tolerate continued anarchy and overt Fascism. And he knows that the GOP cannot win elections without that wing of the base.
The crazies don’t get that. They think the way to win more hearts and minds is by quadrupling down and going ever more fanatical. They are the majority of the Party and they think it belongs to them. Was it Lindsey who said the other day that Trumpism is the way of the future for the GOP? He knows better, but figures the beast can be ridden for another couple of cycles.
McConnel knows that the confrontation can’t be delayed any further. It is time to stare the crazies down and try to get them back on the leash. And ultimately, his technocrats will win. They have the party infrastructure and the funding. It will take a few cycles, but the crazies will eventually learn that they have to mind their masters.
In the meantime, the party will split. It may or may not get to the point of actually creating a new party. And if that does happen, I dunno which side keeps the GOP identity. I do know that we have an opportunity.
I also know that that opportunity won’t last. David Frum was on with Lawrence last night and he quietly urged a major point. He said that the “moderate” GOP base, for example, the educated suburbs, are currently in the Democratic coalition, as he called it the right fringe. More than once, he insisted “not permanently!”
And he is correct. Traditional, rock-ribbed Republican principles of low taxes and limited governmental interference still matter to lots of affluent people currently either staying home or temporarily pulling the D lever. We cannot trust them to remain with us after the spectre of fanaticism dies down.
To build a lasting coalition capable of substantive transformation, we have to aggressively take the political ground suddenly available to us. And since we trade in progressive initiatives rather than fear and loathing, we must start actually making America better in ways that people experience as real. We have to authentically reward people of color for supporting us. Re-invigorate unions with labor gains. Inspire young progressives with victories. Provide innovations that the suburbs will recognize as worthwhile. We must shatter the lie that government cannot help.
The old GOP will be back. It will end and heal its civil war. McConnell will do everything he can to reduce the schism to a minimum.
It’s up to us to keep the pressure on long enough to achieve serious transformation. I am encouraged at the moment, since both Biden and the Party seem to largely get that. But we have to keep hammering on the wedge between the GQP factions and taking advantage of this opportunity to make a real difference.
Onward!