Pakalolo has a diary up: Google Earth 3D timelapse of Lake Mead shows just how screwed the American West is from megadrought. The images show how year to year the lake is getting smaller. Like the apocryphal boiled frog, short-attention span humans have a real problem dealing with the long term. Water restrictions appear imminent.
There’s a law whose name I forget, which goes something like “A crisis always takes longer to arrive than you expect, and happens faster than you expect when it does arrive.” We appear to be crossing that threshold.
Here’s another example. Hat Tip to Charles P. Pierce for: This Is the Climate Crisis in One Sentence: Tuesday’s index patient for a dying planet is, ironically enough, the Dead Sea. Pierce is picking up on an LA Times report by Nabih Bulos: The Dead Sea is dying. Drinking water is scarce. Jordan faces a climate crisis.
Jordan is experiencing a serious problem with sinkholes as the Dead Sea retreats.
The sinkholes are a harbinger of a future in a Middle East precariously balanced on dwindling resources. With the Dead Sea — a lake, really — shrinking at a rate of 3 to 5 feet a year, its saltwater is replaced by freshwater, which rushes in and dissolves subterranean salt layers, some of them hundreds of feet below. Cavities form, and the soil collapses into subsurface voids, creating sinkholes.
In the last three decades, the Dead Sea’s level has fallen almost 100 feet. The rate of loss is accelerating, and sinkholes now number in the thousands, like a rash spreading on the exposed seabed.
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The sinkholes are a piece of a larger danger revealing how Jordan’s perennial thirst is worsening. A virtually landlocked desert kingdom with few resources, the country’s yearly decrease in rainfall could lead to a 30% reduction by 2100, according to Stanford University’s Jordan Water Project. Jordan’s aquifers, ancient groundwater reservoirs that take long to replenish, are being pumped at a furious pace, even as the pandemic has increased demand by 40%, the Water Ministry says. And precarious finances mean desalinization, which serves some of Jordan’s richer neighbors, is — for now — too expensive an option.
There’s the conundrum in a nutshell — growing demand for water in a country which has dwindling supplies and limited financial resources.
Much of Jordan’s water problem is a simple matter of math: In the 1950s, its population numbered half a million people. Now there are more than 10 million, housed in a country whose water supply, researchers say, can’t sustain a population exceeding 2 million. Residents make do with 135 cubic meters, or about 36,000 gallons, of water per person per year; the U.N. defines “absolute scarcity” at 500 cubic meters per year.
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Something’s going to break. And it’s not just water:
Making matters worse are broiling summers, with the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry projecting average daytime temperatures to exceed 116 degrees Fahrenheit and reaching almost 90 by night. (And it’s not just estimates; the temperature in Mitribah, in northern Kuwait, reached 129 degrees in 2016.)
Without air conditioning, parts of the region are going to become unsurvivable for humans, let alone the indigenous flora and fauna. The demand for water will also be matched with a rising need for power for AC.
At one time, a proposal was being floated for building a pipeline from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea. Because the Dead Sea is below sea level, once the water from the sea reaches a certain point, it’s all downhill. This was brought up as a way of developing a hydropower resource while reversing the shrinkage of the Dead Sea.
Gwen Ackerman reported on the details as of 2019 at Bloomberg: Israel Ready to Build Red Sea-Dead Sea Project With Jordan
Israel’s regional cooperation minister said Israel is ready to move ahead with a multibillion dollar project with Jordan to pipe water from the Red Sea to the Dead Sea, an idea that’s been on the drawing board for years.
Tzachi Hanegbi said he expects the Israeli cabinet to approve the Red Sea-Dead Sea project, which will bring water from the Red Sea to a desalination center in the Jordanian port of Aqaba. The brine byproduct will be piped 200 kilometers (125 miles) north to the Dead Sea, a salt lake bordered by Jordan to the east and Israel and the West Bank to the west, whose severe shrinkage has created a slew of environmental problems.
Each country will pledge $40 million per year to the project for 25 years, Hanegbi said, which would bring the total to at least $2 billion. Jordan’s Ministry of Water didn’t respond to a request for comment.
The project could help to relieve a dire water shortage in Jordan, and Palestinians will be able to buy the desalinated water at cost, Hanegbi said. It’s also meant to alleviate the evaporation of the Dead Sea, where Jordan and Israel harvest potash and do a brisk tourism business. A hydroelectric plant will provide power to both countries.
As might be expected, political tensions in the region are making it untenable so far.
“This is the largest joint project in the Middle East between Israel and an Arab state,” Hanegbi said. “Jordan has severe water issues and Israel wants to maintain Jordan’s stability. It’s the country with which we have our longest border.”
A 2014 World Bank feasibility study on the project said that if no action is taken, the area near the Dead Sea will suffer from further sinkholes, mud flats and landslides that will affect terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, tourism and the chemical industry. The lake’s water level is declining by more than one meter (3.3 feet) a year.
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From the sound of current conditions, the pipeline project should be upscaled and construction put on a crash basis. It would be worth exploring if the incoming brine could be used to raise the local humidity. If it was directed into spray fountains offshore in the Dead Sea, evaporation of the mist would raise the amount of moisture in the air while leaving the minerals behind — hopefully. We are approaching the point where all options need to be on the table.
Invisible Drought
Everyone can see when a lake shrinks or a river dries up. What about the water we can’t see? Industrial farming in the midwest depends on pumping water out of the Ogallala Aquifer.
Large scale extraction for agricultural purposes started after World War II due partially to center pivot irrigationand to the adaptation of automotive engines for groundwater wells.[4] Today about 27% of the irrigated land in the entire United States lies over the aquifer, which yields about 30% of the ground water used for irrigation in the United States.[5] The aquifer is at risk of over-extraction and pollution. Since 1950, agricultural irrigation has reduced the saturated volume of the aquifer by an estimated 9%. Once depleted, the aquifer will take over 6,000 years to replenish naturally through rainfall.[6]
The aquifer system supplies drinking water to 82% of the 2.3 million people (1990 census) who live within the boundaries of the High Plains study area.[7]
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The most recent California Drought saw ground water being pumped out to keep crops growing, to the point where subsiding ground levels began to damage infrastructure.
For decades, farmers have relentlessly pumped groundwater to irrigate their crops, draining thick, water-bearing clay layers deep underground. As the clays compress, roads, bridges, and irrigation canals have cracked, causing extensive and expensive damage. In 2014, when NASA scientists flew radar equipment over the California Aqueduct, a critical piece of water infrastructure, they found that one section had dipped 20 centimeters over 4 months. Such sagging can leave canals carrying less water—an “ultimate irony,” says Graham Fogg, a hydrogeologist at the University of California (UC), Davis, because they were built in part to slacken demand for groundwater. Excessive pumping also jeopardizes water quality, as pollutants accumulate within groundwater and the clays release arsenic. Worst of all, the persistent pumping means that, one day, aquifers might run out of usable water. “If you pump too hard,” Fogg says, “you’re playing with fire.”
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It’s not just a problem that wells can go dry — it’s also a risk that water can become unsuitable for drinking as pollutants become concentrated in the water that remains. Irrigation can also end up making soils unusable. The water used for irrigation evaporates, but the minerals in groundwater remain behind — and the soil can become salinated.
NASA’s GRACE satellites were able to get an estimate of how much water had been lost during the drought by its effects on local gravity measurements.
California's Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins, including the Central Valley, have suffered the greatest losses, in part due to increased groundwater pumping to support agricultural production. Between 2011 and 2014, the combined river basins have lost 4 trillion gallons (15 cubic kilometers, or 12 million acre-feet) of water each year, an amount far greater than California's 38 million residents use in cities and homes annually.
Heavy rains in northern California in 2017 were enough to have the drought declared officially ended, but effects on groundwater linger.
Aquifer depletion is a global problem, a hidden crisis in slow motion, but relentless. Sinking cities are literally disappearing into the ground.
From too little to too much
The counter to drought is flooding — and that’s also something the climate emergency is making worse.
Dangerous and very active Atlantic hurricane season 2021 expected: Above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental US coastline
The official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th. The Atlantic basin covers the area which includes the entire Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea. The long-term average (taken over the last 70 years – between 1951 and 2019) of named storms is 11. The short-term average (taken over the last 15 years – between 1995 and 2019) is 14 named storms.
Thanks to the ongoing La Nina global weather pattern and well-above-average Atlantic sea temperatures, including the Caribbean and the Gulf temperatures, the upcoming hurricane season is expected to be rough. Although the tropical Pacific Ocean waters are gradually warming up now, weak La Nina is expected to continue until early summer this year, with ENSO conditions revert to neutral a month or two later.
Some estimates:
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is predicted to be more active than usual, according to an outlook released on April 15 by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.
The outlook created by Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company, calls for 18 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or higher (115-plus-mph winds) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
This forecast is somewhat above the 30-year average (1991 to 2020) of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
Global Warming is driving change in several ways. Hot, dry regions are becoming hotter and drier. The heat is also putting more moisture in the air and driving storms and other weather events to become more extreme. Long term weather patterns are destabilizing as different parts of the globe warm up at different rates.
The California Drought got a lot of media attention. What happens when California drowns — as it periodically does? Tom Philpott at Mother Jones describes the great California Flood of 1861-1862 when the rains came and didn't stop. The Central Valley of California became a lake, hundreds of miles long. There was massive loss of life and destruction of infrastructure.
It’s a recurring event that happens roughly every 100-200 years. Geological evidence suggests the last one was not the largest of the floods that have occurred in the past, and the consequences of the next one are likely to be catastrophic beyond belief. As Philpott notes:
...The state produces nearly all of the almonds, walnuts, and pistachios consumed domestically; 90 percent or more of the broccoli, carrots, garlic, celery, grapes, tangerines, plums, and artichokes; at least 75 percent of the cauliflower, apricots, lemons, strawberries, and raspberries; and more than 40 percent of the lettuce, cabbage, oranges, peaches, and peppers.
And as if that weren’t enough, California is also a national hub for milk production. Tucked in amid the almond groves and vegetable fields are vast dairy operations that confine cows together by the thousands and produce more than a fifth of the nation’s milk supply, more than any other state. It all amounts to a food-production juggernaut: California generates $46 billion worth of food per year, nearly double the haul of its closest competitor among US states, the corn-and-soybean behemoth Iowa.
All of this could be obliterated within a couple of months when the rains next return — along with all of the other development in the region. There’s no way to prevent it, and no way to deal with it. Read the whole thing for a full picture of what’s at risk. Climate change is likely to make the next one worse.
The Future Isn’t What It Used To Be
The American Jobs Plan is proposing a lot of investment in critical areas. It’s a massive expenditure — in part because we’ve been putting this kind of public investment off for a long time. President Biden has elements in there that address climate change, but here’s the deal:
The American Jobs Plan is not a one-shot deal that will reverse climate change and make us ready for the 21st Century. Surviving the Climate Emergency requires two things:
We have to invest in decarbonizing our economy, possibly to the point of actively removing carbon from the atmosphere. We have to do it as fast as we can.
We have to invest in resilience at the same time — increasing our capacity to respond to climate disasters (both immediate events and long term changes). The cumulative effects of the carbon already in the air are going to be felt for decades to come — even if we go to zero carbon overnight. Things are going to get worse before they start getting better.
The American Jobs Plan is, realistically speaking, just a down payment on what is going to have to be an effort on a global scale for the long haul. It’s going to have to be comparable to fighting World War II and the Cold War combined. With 8 billion humans on one planet, we have no margin for error and no time for denial.