I just launched my election forecast for the NYC Mayor Election. It runs through 20,000 simulations of the election, running 10 rounds of ranked-choice voting every time. Eric Adams is the modest frontrunner, in a very tightly contested race.
In 2020, I correctly called Joe Biden’s narrow wins in Georgia and Arizona in June, and overall I called over 93% of states right in the Presidential and Senate elections. My projections were closer, on average, than Nate Silver’s at FiveThirtyEight.
Check it out here → www.racetothewh.com/…You can also run a simulation of the election, or see the latest polling.
I’m happy to answer any questions about the forecast. I’d love to know who you think is going to win, and who you think should win.