Here’s the thing: Putin believes that he is at war with the western world.
He truly believes that he is in the midst of an existential global conflict with the values of democracy. He is an autocrat. A thug, a bully, and a murderer. He feels that power is for those who grab it, hold onto it and deal it. He doesn't believe in elections, here regularly meddles with the vote in numerous countries he doesn't believe in the will of the people or the consent of the governed and that doesn’t just count for Russia, that counts for everywhere.
For years he's been sponsoring a massive multinational disinformation campaign that promotes cynicism and disdain for the rule of law. He engages with criminals, making the oligarchs and mob bosses of the Russian Mafia into his apparatchiks and cyber soldiers. He uses elaborate means to poison his political opponents with polonium or novichok making the source of their attack obvious while denying any involvement.
There isn't much that Biden could possibly say that is going to change any of this.
But there is one thing.
On top of all the issues that Biden and Putin to discuss, from areas of potential cooperation to the fate of Alexie Navalny, Ukraine, his own significant hidden personal fortune, as well as Americans currently held in Russian jails, there is one overriding issue that needs to be discussed. Cyberspace.
Putin already believes, and he's recently said in an interview that NATO is on "war footing" in cyberspace. He also claimed that this is no "proof" of Russia's cyber activities.
Putin said the U.S. allegations that Russian hackers or the government itself were behind cyberattacks in the U.S. were "farcical," and he challenged NBC News, and by implication the U.S. government, to produce proof that Russians were involved.
"We have been accused of all kinds of things," he said. "Election interference, cyberattacks and so on and so forth. And not once, not once, not one time, did they bother to produce any kind of evidence or proof. Just unfounded accusations."
The proof is in the Mueller indictment against the GRU, which thanks to the Netherlands who had managed to hack into the GRU/SVR camera surveillance system, details step by step which GRU member hacked into exactly which portion of the State Dept and DNC systems when.
According to a report in the Dutch newspaper de Volkskrant, the General Intelligence and Security Service of the Netherlands (AIVD)—the Netherlands' domestic intelligence service—had hacked into the network of a building at a Russian university in Moscow some time in the summer of 2014. The building housed a group running a hacking campaign now known as "Cozy Bear," one of the "threat groups" that would later target the Democratic National Committee.
AIVD's intrusion into the network gave them access to computers used by the group behind Cozy Bear and to the closed-circuit television cameras that watched over them, allowing them to literally witness everything that took place in the building near Red Square, according to the report. Access to the video cameras in a hallway outside the space where the Russian hacking team worked allowed the AIVD to get images of every person who entered the room and match them against known Russian intelligence agents and officials.
Based on the images, analysts at AIVD later determined that the group working in the room was operated by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). An information and technology sharing arrangement with the National Security Agency and other US intelligence agencies resulted in the determination that Cozy Bear’s efforts were at least in part being driven by the Russian Federation’s leadership—including Russian President Vladimir Putin.
So they have the culprits on tape. Red-handed, if you will. In the indictment, the specifics are laid out in detail.
COUNT ONE(Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the United States)
1. In or around 2016, the Russian Federation (“Russia”) operated a military intelligenceagency called the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff (“GRU”). The GRU hadmultiple units, including Units 26165 and 74455, engaged in cyber operations that involved the staged releases of documents stolen through computer intrusions. These units conducted large-scale cyber operations to interfere with the 2016 U.S. presidential election.
2. Defendants VIKTOR BORISOVICH NETYKSHO,BORIS ALEKSEYEVICHANTONOV, DMITRIY SERGEYEVICH BADIN, I VA N SERGEYEVICH YERMAKOV, ALEKSEY VIKTOROVICH LUKASHEV, SERGEY ALEKSANDROVICH MORGACHEV,NIKOLAY YURYEVICH KOZACHEK, PAVEL VYACHESLAVOVICH YERSHOV, ARTEMANDREYEVICH MALYSHEV, ALEKSANDR VLADIMIROVICH OSADCHUK, and ALEKSEY ALEKSANDROVICH POTEMKIN were GRU officers who knowingly and intentionally conspired with each other, and with persons known and unknown to the Grand Jury (collectively the “Conspirators”), to gain unauthorized access ( to “ hack”) into the computers of U.S. persons and entities involved in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, steal documents from those computers, and stage releases of the stolen documents to interfere with the 2016 U.S.presidential election.
3. Starting in at least March 2016, the Conspirators used a variety of means to hack the email accounts of volunteers and employees of the U.S. presidential c ampaign of Hillary Clinton (the“Clinton Campaign”), including the email account of the Clinton Campaign’s chairman.
4. By in or around April 2016, the Conspirators also hacked into the computer networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (“DCCC”) and the Democratic NationalCommittee (“DNC”). The Conspirators covertly monitored the computers of dozens of DCCC and DNC employees, implanted hundreds of files containing malicious computer code (“malware”), and stole emails and other documents from the DCCC and DNC.
5. By in or around April 2016, the Conspirators began to plan the release of materials stolen from the Clinton Campaign, DCCC, and DNC.
If Putin believes his people are innocent he can turn them over to our DOJ and plead their case in court. Unlike his countries Justice System and its secret trials, his people can present their defense in open court and there's a chance, just a chance, that they might be acquitted.
If he's not willing to take the battle to court, he can STFU.
Based on the sequence of Biden’s meetings and travels during this current foreign trip, visiting with the G7, with NATO and the EU, and believe that all of this is diplomacy of course, but it's also part of a plan, part of a strategy.
Biden needed to have these discussions with all these groups directly before talking to Putin because I believe that he’s going to offer him a choice.
Change your ways, refrain from cyberattacks on assaults on democratic nations or else the next time the government of any NATO nation is attacked or infiltrated through cyberspace, under Article 5 of the NATO charter -- an attack on one will be considered as an attack on all — there will be proportional cyber counter-assault by NATO.
If the GRU or SVR mounts another attack on the US or the UK, the response won't from America or England — it’ll come from NATO.
Exactly which NATO nation will spearhead the counter-assault will probably not be clear. NATO does have a Cyber Operations Center in Belgium but it may not come directly from there.
NATO Policy on Cyber Defence
To keep pace with the rapidly changing threat landscape and maintain robust cyber defences, NATO adopted an enhanced policy and action plan, which were endorsed by Allies at the Wales Summit in September 2014. An updated action plan has since been endorsed by Allies in February 2017. The policy establishes that cyber defence is part of the Alliance’s core task of collective defence, confirms that international law applies in cyberspace, seeks to further develop NATO’s and Allies’ capabilities, and intensifies NATO’s cooperation with industry. The top priority is the protection of the networks owned and operated by the Alliance.
The policy also reflects Allied decisions on issues such as streamlined cyber defence governance, procedures for assistance to Allied countries, and the integration of cyber defence into operational planning (including civil preparedness). In addition, the policy defines ways to take forward awareness, education, training and exercise activities, and encourages further progress in various cooperation initiatives, including those with partner countries and international organisations. It also foresees boosting NATO’s cooperation with industry, including on information-sharing and the exchange of best practices. Allies have also committed to enhancing information-sharing and mutual assistance in preventing, mitigating and recovering from cyber attacks.
At the Warsaw Summit in 2016, Allies reaffirmed NATO’s defensive mandate and recognised cyberspace as a domain of operations in which NATO must defend itself as effectively as it does in the air, on land and at sea. As most crises and conflicts today have a cyber dimension, treating cyberspace as a domain enables NATO to better protect and conduct its missions and operations.
At Warsaw, Allies also pledged to strengthen and enhance the cyber defences of national networks and infrastructures, as a matter of priority. Together with the continuous adaptation of NATO’s cyber defence capabilities, as part of NATO’s long-term adaptation, this will reinforce the cyber defence and overall resilience of the Alliance.
Developing the NATO cyber defence capability
The NATO Computer Incident Response Capability (NCIRC) based at SHAPE in Mons, Belgium, protects NATO’s own networks by providing centralised and round-the-clock cyber defence support. This capability is expected to evolve on a continual basis and maintain pace with the rapidly changing threat and technology environment.
To facilitate an Alliance-wide and common approach to cyber defence capability development, NATO also defines targets for Allied countries’ implementation of national cyber defence capabilities via the NATO Defence Planning Process.
So we're not just talking about a one-on-one tit-for-tat conflict. I believe this will present Russia with a “wack-a-mole" problem. Attack France and Germany will respond. Counterattack Germany and Spain will respond. React to Spain and Canada will respond.
Russia has significant cyber-attack capability, but I can't believe that their rickety spit and ducktape systems could withstand a sustained cyber assault from multiple NATO nations.
Let's see if he's got the balls to go toe-to-toe with all of NATO all at once.
Either he backs down and packs it in, or things are gonna get ugly up in here.