The behavior of Joe Manchin in opposing any filibuster reform is not surprising. Old Conservative White male Democrats/Independents with giant egos who flaunt their power are certainly nothing new in the Senate. Here’s looking at you Joe Lieberman!
On the other hand, Kyrsten Sinema’s behavior on its face is extremely hard to understand.
Once upon a time, she was considered among the most Progressive members of the Arizona Democratic legislative caucus. She was a strong advocate for immigrants and a previous anti-war protester. When elected to Congress, she was the first Democrat to win a Senate seat in Arizona in 30 years, the first Arizona woman, and the first bisexual Senator to be elected from anywhere.
THE 180 TURN
Now she is among the most Conservative of Democratic Senators. She voted with Trump fully one-quarter of the time, including against humane treatment of immigrants and undocumented workers as part of 2020 COVID relief package.
She also voted against including an increase in the minimum wage as part of the 2021 COVID relief bill. This vote involved a bizarre f**k you curtsy and thumbs down to American workers. She was MIA (without a stated reason) when the vote to form a bipartisan January 6th Commission was underway, even though she claimed to support it — it LOST by a vote of 54 for and 35 against. Talk about anti-democracy!
Now, she seems to loudly and proudly stand beside Manchin and Republicans in strongly opposing even reforming the filibuster, thus assuring defeat of essential legislation.
LIKELY TOO SMART AND TOO SAVVY
Sinema is likely too intelligent to actually believe that giving Senate Republicans an insurmountable minority veto power over passing what the people want and need is a good thing. It is also likely she is too savvy not to see the fascist, anti-democratic actions of the Republican party in state after state and not know that her position is blocking protection of voting rights, as well as too savvy not to know her position is a huge barrier to addressing the global climate crisis — she was a former candidate for the Green Party after all. And she cannot be so naive as to think that Trump and Republicans in the Senate will reward her for her support of their positions.
So, maybe you say, it’s just cynical politics designed to win in Arizona. But that makes no sense either. Sure she ran on appealing to suburban women and more conservative voters. But she must realize that she would not have won without Democratic voters - progressives, hispanics, and other core democratic groups — groups she keeps poking in the eye.
She must also realize that there is little chance she will keep enough of their votes to win a primary, let alone re-election. Only 8% of Arizona Democrats have a highly favorable view of her, whereas 14% have a highly unfavorable view. And her unfavorables are as high as her favorables, 40% to 39%, not a winning position. She must also be aware of newspapers in her state repeatedly calling her out for her inexplicably bad behavior.
Arizona is trending blue, including those suburban women, and she is talking and voting ever more conservative and obstructionist. Maybe she thinks she can win by becoming a Republican or by appealing to enough Republican voters to make up for lack of Democratic support. But I believe she is too smart to have missed the fact that Democrats who run as Republican-lite usually find that Republican voters simply pick the Republican instead. And now cult-like worship of Trump is clearly required for Republican support in Arizona. Does she think she can pull that off?
Her campaign staff is no doubt also too smart and too savvy not to understand all this and be very worried and confused.
THE QUESTIONS
Why is Kyrsten Sinema actively destroying her chances for re-election and a future in the Democratic Party?
Why is she willing to be seen by history and by the vast majority of the American people as a villain in the fight for progress and democracy?
IF NOT CLUELESSNESS, THEN THE BROAD ANSWER HAS TO BE
The promise of some reward (personal or professional) that makes her betrayal of the people and short-circuiting of her political career worth it and/or ...
A threat of some kind that is so grave that she would sacrifice her honor, her integrity, her re-election, and the American people rather than face it.
IT’S CRITICAL TO FIND THE ANSWER
People who really know her need to find the answer to these questions and identify a countervailing incentive/disincentive that will change her attitude and behavior.
An effective incentive/disincentive that will change Joe Manchin’s behavior would also be an outstandingly good thing for the world.
Anyone?