Delta cases are exploding in several states. The outbreaks in June focused on states with very low vaccination rates, including Missouri and Arkansas.
Florida is a little bit different. According to COVID Act Now data, Florida has vaccinated 55% of residents with at least one dose, compared to only 47% in Missouri, 44% in Arkansas.
Percent vaccinated with at least one dose:
Which is fairly good, although you can see the Republican panhandle lagging.
So just how rapidly has Delta spread in Florida in the past 4 weeks? See for yourself:
That’s pretty darn fast.
Jacksonville is exploding, with an Effective Transmission Rate (Rt) of 1.92 and a positivity rate of 21.7%, meaning there is A LOT of COVID out there not being identified.
But even Miami-Dade, at 69% vaccinated with at least one dose, has 37 cases per 100k, an Rt of 1.74 and a positivity rate of 8.7%.
Long story short: Delta is coming, regardless of your vaccination rate.
I like to look at the Rt to gauge where things may be headed, though it is not 100% predictive. I use COVIDestim.org
An Rt of 1.2 means that if 10 people are infected, they will likely infect 12 additional people. The darker the red, the higher above 1.0 the Rt is. The darker the black, the closer to 0 the Rt is.
Rt values two weeks ago:
Rt values Saturday:
That is A LOT of red. A lot of Florida is near or above 2.0.
I am fearful that we will soon see the same levels we saw last fall, or worse. Which actually makes perfect sense. Delta is 2-3 times more transmissible, has a higher viral load, and most places have no preventative measures (masking or social distancing).
We also have a potentially concerning article out of Las Vegas last week.
Back in June, at least 11 employees at Sunrise Hospital and Medical Center attended a private party. They developed symptoms and tested positive for COVID. 8 of the 11 were fully vaccinated back in January/February.2 of the 11 received only the first dose of a 2 dose vaccine. This raises several questions, for which there currently are no answers:
- Were these really breakthrough infections? It should be noted that CDC is only tracking breakthrough infections that result in hospitalizations and deaths. They may be worried that reporting an increasing number of breakthrough infections would further discourage vaccinations. In the past two flu seasons, flu vaccine effectiveness was less than 40%.
- Were the tests false positives? There is debate in the testing community about how many PCR cycles are used to determine a positive case. Some argue the cycle threshold should be 30 or less, and running more cycles reduces accuracy, and that all positive tests should report the cycle threshold to all further scrutiny.
- Did immune protection only last 6 months?
- Does this validate the prior findings in Israel that found the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine was only 64% effective at preventing infection?
- As Delta spreads, will we see an increasing number of breakthrough infections reported?
- Will breakthrough infections be under reported because people who are fully vaccinated will believe any symptoms are a cold or allergy and not bother to get tested?
We just don’t know.
And at the rate of vaccinations over the past 4 weeks, 29 states may not have 60% with a first dose (only 33% effective against Delta) before Labor Day, and 24 of those states may not have 60% fully vaccinated until into 2022.
Get vaccinated, but take extra steps to protect yourself. It is going to be a very bumpy ride over the next several months.
Monday, Jul 19, 2021 · 4:26:31 PM +00:00
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tln41
In the comments, some have questioned my comment about CDC only investigating hospitalizations and deaths for breakthrough infections.
From the CDC itself:
As of May 1, 2021, CDC transitioned from monitoring all reported vaccine breakthrough cases to focus on identifying and investigating only hospitalized or fatal cases due to any cause.
www.cdc.gov/...