To start off, the Senate has now passed the Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill and the $3.5 Trillion (Soft Infrastructure) Budget Resolution, the latter by a vote of 50 Democrats verses 49 Republicans (see Mark Lippman's Post). With both of these items passed, the Senate has gone into recess, as the House has already done, with both not scheduled back until September. So this pause in the action is a good opportunity to take a look at where we (Progressives) stand and how (I think) things can unfold to get “most” of what we need in both Hard & Soft Infrastructure.
In the interests of keeping this post as short as possible (which I always try to do, but rarely succeed), I would refer you to this Wednesday morning Post by Joan McCarter for a great overview of the key players and the legislative process to come. Joan has done a great job in identifying the key players and the give and take that we are likely to see in the coming weeks. So I urge you to go read her post (if you have not already done so) and then come back here to hear how (I think) we can have most of our cake and eat it too.
Good, you came back!
This post will mainly deal with the “Soft Infrastructure” Budget Reconciliation Bill to be initially crafted by the Senate, and not the Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill just passed by the Senate. I will explain why latter.
Now that the Senate has passed the $3.5 Trillion Budget Resolution, action will now shift to the various Senate Committees who have jurisdiction over matters of revenue and spending. The Budget Resolution tasks these relevant committees to come up with their revenue and spending plans in accordance with Budget Reconciliation instructions in the Budget Resolution. As quoted in Joan McCarter’s Post, Schumer has given the various Committees a deadline of September 15th to complete their plans. These will then be melded together into a Budget Reconciliation Bill to be put on the Senate Floor. But before I get into the details of how I think this House/Senate legislative sausage making process might/should play out, we need to keep the following KEY points in mind:
1. Correcting Inadequacies in the Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill — A number of items and/or $$ that was left out of the Senate’s Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill in order to get the needed Republican votes to end debate on that Bill, need to be added into the Budget Reconciliation Bill at some point in the legislative process in order to secure House and Senate progressive votes. I am certain that Senate Progressives (e.g., Sanders, Warren, etc.) only voted for the Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill because they were promised or at least believe that the left out items/$$ will be in the Reconciliation Bill. For example, spending on combating/mitigating Climate Change was substantially cut in order to pass the Bipartisan Bill, and needs to be substantially added to the Reconciliation Bill. However, keep in mind that addition of such necessary “hard” infrastructure spending may require cuts in some “soft” infrastructure spending in order to stay within the $3.5 Trillion cap in the Senate’s already passed Budget Resolution.
2. Financing — As pointed out in this Joan McCarter Post, the Budget Resolution passed by the Senate leaves it up to the Senate Finance Committee to come up with how to pay for the $3.5 Trillion spending in the Budget Reconciliation Bill:
Much of it is "to be determined," like how the Finance Committee will find the funding to do all this and not raise taxes on anyone making less than $400,000 a year, and reduce the deficit by $1 billion. That's going to be higher taxes for the rich and corporations.
As Igor Bobic tweeted:
“That is like the SAT math problem of my nightmares.”
Their task is further complicated by the fact that Manchin has already said he will only raise taxes on the Uber Rich and Big Corporations from 21% to 25% instead of the 28% in Biden’s original proposal. However, Committee members should keep in mind that the Big Corporations got a sweetheart deal in the Senate’s Bipartisan (Hard) Infrastructure Bill. They got all the fixes and upgrades to hard infrastructure that are vital to them, without having to pay out a dime in increased taxes. But in the end, the Committee will somehow have to come up with the revenue without tax increases on those below $400,000 a year in order to keep support of some Democrats worried about significantly increasing the debt.
3. The Senate Parliamentarian — Senate Republicans are sure to raise “Points of Order” to try to get as much as possible jettisoned from the Reconciliation Bill under the rules which require all aspects of the bill to have significant budgetary impacts in order to qualify as “budget reconciliation” and therefore exempt from the filibuster. For example, they are sure to object to any DACA provisions that may be in the bill. Once such “Points of Order” are raised, the Senate Parliamentarian will be asked for her recommendation as to whether the contended item does or does not qualify under the budget reconciliation rules and whether it can stay in the bill or must be jettisoned. In each such case the Chair presiding over the Senate will almost certainly rule in line with the Parliamentarian’s recommendation which can only be overruled by a majority vote of the Senate. Although it’s possible, it is highly unlikely that Manchin, Sinema and other Conservative Democrats will vote to overturn a ruling that says certain items must be taken out of the bill based on the Parliamentarian’s recommendation. Unfortunately, this may be the political reality we will have to deal with.
4. Both Bills Together — In order to get both the Budget Reconciliation Bill and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill passed in the House, Pelosi MUST keep to her word that she won’t put the latter Bill before the House until the former Bill is provided to the House by the Senate. This should be a RED line for House Progressives.
5. Moderate and Progressive Democrats Give and Take — In order to get any Bill passed there will have to be COMPROMISES (yes, that dirty word) between Moderate and Progressive Democrats. Manchin and Sinema have both said they want things cut from the Reconciliation Bill for their votes, although neither has been specific. On the other side, the Progressive Caucus in the House has sent a letter to leadership in the House and Senate informing them that they will need a “robust” spending bill to secure their essential 96 House votes, again with no real specifics. Both sides will have to give some to get the vast majority of the bill across the finish line. In the end, I doubt if either side wants to blow the whole thing up and torpedo the Biden agenda. But if compromises only go in one direction substantially gutting the Bill, blowing it all up is a possibility.
Notice I didn’t mention anything about Republicans in the Key elements above. That’s because fortunately they have no direct involvement in the budget reconciliation process, aside from raising Points of Order as discussed above. There only power is indirect, in as much as they can get Manchin and/or Sinema to do for them.
So finally, onto how I think this legislative process should play out:
Step 1 — The Senate Committees must put out their separate legislation in accordance with the Senate passed Budget Resolution. Besides the Senate Finance Committee having to solve the impossible SAT problem of how to pay for the entire $3.5 Trillion bill, there will be other tough situations. For example,
Manchin has some more influence, sadly, as chair of the Energy and Natural Resource Committee—the last thing a guy who's making money off of the coal industry should be in charge of in 2021.
So how much spending this Committee comes up with for combating/mitigating Climate Change may be woefully inadequate. That can be rectified by amendment of the Reconciliation Bill on the Senate Floor or by the House later on in the process.
Step 2 — Pass the Budget Reconciliation Bill in the Senate. Optimistically, this will be passing the robust Budget Reconciliation Bill that Progressives want and the Country needs. Realistically, it may mean passing a paired down Bill in the Senate in order to secure the absolutely necessary votes of Manchin and Sinema. Which means that Senate Progressives may have to vote for whatever Bill Manchin and Sinema will agree to in order to move the process forward. But just remember, voting “yes” assures us of getting something, while voting “no” assures us of getting nothing.
Step 3 — The House has to act on both the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill and the Budget Reconciliation Bill passed by the Senate. Just how they act will depend on what kind of Reconciliation Bill they are handed by the Senate.
Optimistically, if it’s a decent bill that both both moderate and Progressive Democrats find acceptable, the House can pass both Bills and send them on to President Biden for signing.
Realistically, if it’s an inadequate Reconciliation Bill that House Progressives cannot accept, they can continue to hold on to the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill while passing a more Progressive Budget Reconciliation Bill. A Bill that is more Progressive than the Senate version, but which can muster enough votes from Conservative Democrats to pass the House.
Step 4 — Go to Conference on the Budget Reconciliation Bills, while continuing to hold off voting in the House on the Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill, holding it hostage as a point of leverage over Conservative Democrats (Manchin, Sinema, etc.). When the Senate and House pass different Bills, they can agree to send both versions to a joint House/Senate Conference Committee to work out the differences and come up with a single bill for both Houses to vote on. Yes, the House could simply send over the version they pass to the Senate and ask them to pass it, and the Senate could send back another version to the House, in a possibly never ending legislative ping-pong match that could kill the bill. But a Conference Committee would be under tremendous pressure to come up with a single bill that can get enough votes to pass both the Senate and House, and historically Conference Committees usually succeed.
In addition, the beauty of a Conference Committee on this Bill is, although Republicans will be on such a Committee, they will have no real power. First, they will be in the minority on the Committee. Second, since this is a Budget Reconciliation Bill they will not be able to threaten to withhold Republican votes when the Bill comes to the Senate/House floors since their votes aren’t necessary for passage of the final bill (i.e., the Conference Report). So this will strictly be a negotiation between Progressive and Conservative Democrats on the Committee.
Step 5 — Pass the Conference Report on the Budget Reconciliation Bill in both the House and Senate, and pass the Senate’s Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill as is, in the House. There is no sense in passing a different Infrastructure Bill in the House and sending it to the Senate because Senate Republicans will likely filibuster it.
In the end, I think the above 5 step procedure is the best way forward to achieve the goal of getting the most Progressive legislation possible passed into law.
I will leave you with two things to keep in mind in the coming days:
1. On one hand, we (Progressives) must be willing to blow it all up if we are handed woefully inadequate legislation and told to take it or leave it.
2. On the other hand, we (Progressives) can’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good, meaning we should be prepared to make relatively small concessions to moderate Democrats in order to get the bulk of the legislation passed into law.