29,145,505 Texans with 95% of the increased population being from people of color.
"According to results of 2020 census congressional reapportionment, Texas will have 38 districts, and each district will have an ideal 2020 census population of 766,987." For comparison the Texas State Senate has 31 seats and therefore will have an ideal population of 940,000.
“After years of litigation and undeniable proof of intentional discrimination, minority voters in Texas — despite constituting a majority of the population within the state — will continue to be underrepresented in the political process.” (from Justice Sotomayor dissent)
Now they will be a permanent majority and under represented. Please remember issues of redistricting are brought under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and go directly to federal court taking forever. Since 2011 Texas has been litigating the last redistricting (otherwise known as gerrymandering and disenfranchisement) and only ended IIRC in 2018. Since Section 5 which goes to the DOJ has been gutted the normal procedures regarding direct discrimination as to polling locations and pre-clearance will not be available.
Please note we have reached the point where Hispanics are just .5 away from being the majority in Texas on their own. I could easily make the argument that they are already there based on the time frame of the census and COVID-19 as well as the implied threat regarding non-citizens answering the census.
In addition the Hispanic and Black populations are younger than the White population. Around 20% of the Hispanic population is under 12 in addition to those >12 but <18. By 2024 those eligible to vote 15+ years of age now will dramatically increase.
"Texans of color accounted for 95% of the state’s population growth. The 2020 census puts the state’s population at 29,145,505 — a 16% jump from 25.1 million in 2010. Hispanic Texans were responsible for half of that increase."
"Non-Hispanic white Texans now make up just 39.8% of the state’s population — down from 45% in 2010. Meanwhile, the share of Hispanic Texans has grown to 39.3%."
"The state’s Hispanic, Black and Asian populations all significantly outgrew the white population since 2010. The white population growth — an increase of just 187,252 — was swamped by the total growth among Asian Texans, who make up a tiny share of the total population but have seen their numbers grow at the fastest pace in the state. The state’s Asian population grew by 613,092 since 2010."
"The Hispanic population saw the biggest growth, with nearly 2 million additional Hispanic people now calling Texas home."
Texas Tribune article
"In 2020, Trump put a dent in the Democratic edge among Latinos in Texas, winning 40 percent of that vote. But he made inroads largely in communities along the border, while the Latino population growth in the state is centered in urban areas that are heavily Democratic. Of the nearly 2 million new Latinos in the state, 484,000 live in the Dallas metro area, 593,000 are in the Houston region and 236,000 are in San Antonio." (From the Washington Post)
Then there is the urban rural divide. Of the 254 Texas counties 140 rural counties lost residents, 3 stayed the same and 111 gained residents the largest numbers were urban and suburban voters.
An example of this is the current 23rd Congressional district which stretches from San Antonio (Bexar county) to the Mexican border and west to El Paso, 8 hours away by car. That district loaded up on Hispanic rural and small town voters but then reached into a conservative portion of San Antonio in order to produce a Republican win by around 1,000 votes.
The declining rural White voter of west Texas and 80+ voter will be increasing more difficult to gerrymander so you will see more of the example of Austin dividing the county up into 5 Congressional districts to dilute the vote. That may work this one last time but in that example within 6 years 3 of those districts were very close to turning back to a Democratic win.
This is going to be an all Republican hands on deck to meld gerrymandering and the current voter suppression bills to hold on to power. There is a reason that Abbott and his cabal want to restrict the education of the horrible history of Texas regarding discrimination so all these young people have no idea of what happened to their ancestors.
Texas has until December of this year to produce the maps and it will be very nasty.