Preface: I dislike “rebuttal” diaries. However, I took issue with a trending diary that tells us to “chill out,” because this election’s nowhere near “in the bag” for Newsom. I reached out to the diary’s author with a request to amend the diary to reflect the following but the author declined to do so.
Please DON’T chill out!
A diary on the recommended/trending list tells us to chill out about the California recall election based on a recent poll showing the “Keep Newsom” effort leading by 15 points. However, the diary fails to note that this was from a single poll, and that fivethirtyeight.com gives the pollster a B- rating.
I took screen shots of both fivethirtyeight’s and RCP’s aggregates, which show a much closer race than the single outlier mentioned in the diary. The graph above shows fivethirtyeight’s aggregate, which shows that Keep is ahead of Remove by only 4.3%, though Keep is trending in the right direction for Newsom and will hopefully continue growing. However, RCP’s aggregate shows the Remove effort leading by 0.5% (there’s an outlier in there, too):
Beyond the obvious implications for Californians, this election could have disastrous consequences for the entire country, some of which were itemized here and here. Consider this:
Dianne Feinstein is 88 years old. If her seat is vacant for any reason, guess who gets to appoint a Republican senator from California?
You think Biden has a tough time with the Senate now? What if one of California’s Senators is replaced by a GQPer? It’s Mitch McConnell’s wet dream.
The reality is that California Dems aren’t sufficiently enthused about the election because they complacently believe the recall doesn’t matter (“California would never elect a Republican Governor!”) or they have issues with some aspect of Newsom’s leadership so they don’t want to affirm support for him, or a combination of both.
Digby notes in this piece for Salon:
Last spring I wrote an optimistic piece about the attempted recall of California Governor Gavin Newsom, concluding that it wouldn't go anywhere because "California is the beating heart of blue America and this time the Terminator isn't going to be on the ballot, the state isn't in a perpetual state of crisis over funding and the California Republican Party is a joke." All of that remains true, but three weeks out from election day, it's clear that unless Democrats get out the vote, Newsom could actually be in trouble — and that means the U.S. will be in trouble too.
Ed Kilgore explores the reasons for Newsom’s trouble in this piece for New York Magazine: “Newsom has been hit with a perfect storm of bad timing” and “Republicans are psyched about the chance to purge Newsom and win a statewide election.”
Given the enthusiasm gap, the recall effort could succeed — is very close to succeeding — which would mean a California-sized migraine for the voters who don’t realize that if “Remove” wins, the next Governor will probably be a RWNJ talk radio host:
Do. Not. Chill. Out.
Contact every Californian you know and make them aware of the dire consequences of not voting to Keep Newsom. Our democracy could literally depend on it. Just ask Mitch McConnell.
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