Intro to the Recall:
For the fourth time in US history, there will be a Governor Recall election, this time in California for Gavin Newsom. Voters will decide whether Newsom gets to finish his term, or whether he gets booted out of office early. If over 50% of people support a recall, he will be gone. The replacement will almost certainly be a Republican, and they will finish his term.
Latest Polling:
Newsom lost a tremendous amount of ground in the polls over the last month, and voters are only supporting keeping him by 49.6% to 44.8%. In a California Recall Forecast, Newsom’s chances of winning are just 78.8%. That’s tiny for California. 21% may not sound like much, but it's the type of upset we see all the time. Ever seen a baseball player get a base hit? The average hitter this year gets a hit when they come to the plate about 21% of the time. 78.8% is also almost exactly the same chance Democrats had of winning the Maine Senate seat in 2020. Its the type of upset that happens all the time.
Now, for full transparency, I designed that California Recall forecast on my site, RacetotheWH.com. Bragging is rude, but I'm doing it here briefly so you get why I have some credibility, and why you should get engaged and volunteer for Newsom. I'm pretty good at this, and my models were in the top three in the nation the last cycle in terms of accuracy. I called Arizona and Georgia correctly in June, and both Georgia Senate Races in September.
While I’ve gone to great lengths to make sure the forecast itself is unbiased and non-partisan, I’m a Democrat and I've worked in Democratic politics before.
Get Involved
It’s apparent that far too few Democrats are taking this election seriously because it's California, but that's a grave mistake. In fact, Republicans in California are indicating to pollsters they are far, far more likely to vote than Democrats. After lockdowns, a Biden Presidency, and a very liberal California Governorship, they are more fired up than ever. However, Democrats will win if they turn out because they have a big numbers advantage.
That's where you can come in. Sign up to volunteer, and make sure Californians know how close this election is so they actually get out and vote. Many people aren't tuned into politics at all right now, so you can make a huge difference here.
Now, the most important part - here are a few links to sign up and get engaged.
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First, sign up with Gavin Newsom's Campaign to volunteer. They want your email, and they want to know how you want to get involved: https://act.gavinnewsom.com/signup/campaign-volunteer/
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Ready to help out right away? Here’s a list of Democratic phone banks you can sign up for now. Normally, you would sign up for an event near you, but because of the pandemic a ton of the events are virtual, so you can do it from anywhere: https://events.democrats.org/?q=recall
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Finally, donations make a huge difference. Newsom needs to mobilize Democrats to win, and that means he needs to effectively get his message out. Republicans have raised a ton of money to fight him, so we need him to be prepared too. https://secure.actblue.com/donate/gcn-web190213-nav?refcode=gcn-web190213-nav
Why should you care?
First, California has 39.51 million people, and this will make a huge impact in their lives. Second, if Republicans do win here, you can bet that you will be hearing about this every time you turn on the news for months. Reporters will take it as a crystal clear sign, true or not, that there will be a Republican wave in 2022. We can't sleep on this just because it's such a weird year for an election. Get engaged, and do your part for democracy.
Here’s a link to sign up for opportunities to volunteer: https://act.gavinnewsom.com/signup/campaign-volunteer/
Here’s a list of Democratic phone banks, many if not most of which are virtual: events.democrats.org/…
Here’s a link to donate: secure.actblue.com/...
Why should you get engaged? Well, for one, California is the biggest state and this election will have big consequences on the lives of 39.51 million. Even if you don't care about that specifically, imagine what it will feel like the day after. From that point on, all anyone in politics will be talking about is how Republicans won California, one of the bluest states in the nation. Reporters will believe and repeat endlessly that this is a clear sign of a Republican wave in 2022. I don’t know about you, but I don’t want that. So, get involved, get engaged, send a small donation. We can't sleep on this just because it's not a midterm year.