In the wake of President Joe Biden's aggressive efforts to vaccinate the nation’s unvaccinated, Republicans have predictably exploded with fury and pundits are now weighing whether there could be political fallout for Democrats heading into next year.
But an internal swing-state poll conducted by the pro-Biden super PAC Unite the Country has found exactly the opposite in some of the states that will matter most in next year's midterms.
Veteran Democratic consultant and PAC director Steve Schale tweeted Thursday that his group had surveyed swing states about an employer vaccine mandate similar to Biden's proposal compelling companies with more than 100 employees to vaccinate their workforce. In five states that narrowly cemented Biden's 2020 win, roughly two-thirds of respondents favored the employer mandate.
Here are the top lines from the five swing states, which average out to 65% in favor, 35% opposed.
Arizona
• Favor: 68%
• Oppose: 32
Georgia
• Favor: 63%
• Oppose: 37
Michigan
• Favor: 61%
• Oppose: 39
Pennsylvania
• Favor: 64%
• Oppose: 36
Wisconsin
• Favor: 68%
• Oppose: 32
"Given how closely divided those five states are, this is about as much consensus as you will ever find," wrote Schale, who managed Barack Obama's Florida campaign in 2008 and consulted on his 2012 reelection campaign.
Biden's vaccination requirement for large companies is the centerpiece of his effort to force vaccine holdouts off the sidelines. It will cover more than 80 million private-sector workers across the country, according to the White House.
In addition to the topline numbers, those who “strongly” favored the mandate outpaced those who “strongly” opposed it by double digits in every case, and usually by roughly 20 points or more. The biggest gaps were in Arizona and Wisconsin, where those strongly favoring the requirements registered 27 points higher than those strongly opposed. Pennsylvania had the smallest gap, with strong opposition falling 14 points short of those strongly in favor.
In other words, these mandates matter to far more voters who passionately favor them than to those who disdain them, regardless of who’s winning the yelling contest.
(Cautionary editor’s note: after publishing this piece, I realized the AZ and WI numbers were exactly the same, which seems odd. We are asking for clarification, but in the meantime, I think the overall point of the piece stands and hesitate to unpublish.)
