Via Talking Points Memo, a group from the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats has been tracking insurrectionist beliefs for months with surveys. Here’s the latest assessment from Robert A. Pape, a professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago:
...We have found that 47 million American adults – nearly 1 in 5 – agree with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Of those, 21 million also agree that “use of force is justified to restore Donald J. Trump to the presidency.”
Our survey found that many of these 21 million people with insurrectionist sentiments have the capacity for violent mobilization. At least 7 million of them already own a gun, and at least 3 million have served in the U.S. military and so have lethal skills. Of those 21 million, 6 million said they supported right-wing militias and extremist groups, and 1 million said they are themselves or personally know a member of such a group, including the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys.
Read the whole thing. They explain how they get the numbers and how confident they are of their survey results. They also have some alarming additional findings.
Combined with their military experience, gun ownership and connections to extremist groups and militias, this signals the existence of significant mainstream support in America for a violent insurrection.
This group of 21 million who agree both that force is justified to restore Trump and that Biden is an illegitimate president has two additional views that are also on the fringes of mainstream society:
Some people with insurrectionist sentiments hold one of these political views but not the other, suggesting there are multiple ways of thinking that lead a person toward the insurrectionist movement.
emphasis added
If the numbers sound too crazy to be credible, consider how many people are invested in irrational beliefs about Covid-19, vaccines, and “cures”.
News Roundup for 9-23-21 has several stories that add more data to the mix. Tucker Carlson is one of those mainstreaming extremist views. Violence from anti-vaxx, anti-mask partisans is increasing. Conservatives are developing a set of rationales to justify overthrowing American government and anything else that stands in their way.
There has been a continuing stream of revelations that the January 6 insurrection to overturn the election was part of a deliberate plan on the part of Trump and those around him. Competent leadership might have pulled it off — and the danger has not gone away. (Although the press doesn’t seem to have even noticed how close it was.)
The book “Peril” by Woodward and Costa has been laying out just how much more dangerous the last months of the Trump presidency were than people realized. Robert A. Pape’s report from the University of Chicago warns us that the threat is still around and cannot be ignored.
Granted, there’s been some level of awareness that things aren’t right out there — but with so much going on (border shenanigans, the infrastructure bills, the debt ceiling, climate, the pandemic, the economy, Gabby Petito… ) we’ve almost gotten to the point where existential threats have to take a number.