Today, I am going to be looking at three more Michigan senate districts: SD 4, SD 13, and SD 14, all of which are all in the Detroit area.
MI SD 4
MI SD 4 is located in the southern part of the Detroit area. Geographically, the new SD 4 covers a somewhat similar area as the existing SD 6. The current SD 6 has been a heavily Democratic leaning district, but did swing heavily to the right in 2016, with Hillary Clinton carrying it by about 11 points, after Barack Obama had carried it by a considerably larger 29-point margin four years earlier. (Joe Biden did about a percentage point better than Clinton in the district.) However, the new SD 4 is quite a bit more competitive than the existing SD 6. Under the new boundaries, Clinton would have carried SD 4 by about 2 points and Biden would have carried it by about 4 points (though, not surprisingly, the district would have supported Obama by a larger 23-point margin). With the recent presidential results being fairly close, the district should be competitive, especially considering the fact that it will also be open, as there don’t seem to be any incumbent senators residing in district. However, one positive note for Dems is that the district does seem to be friendlier to them down-ballot. For example, in the 2018 AG Race, Dem Dana Nessel easily won the district by 12 points, despite only winning statewide by a little less than 3 points (roughly the same as Biden’s statewide margin) and Dems easily won the district at the congressional level by about 13 points in 2020. In addition, the Democrats seem to have a strong candidate running in term-limited state representative Darin Camilleri, who narrowly flipped an open house seat in 2016 and was reelected by about 5 points in 2020, despite Donald Trump carrying the district by about 12 points in 2016 and by between 8 and 9 points in 2020. If Camilleri ends up being the Dem nominee, some might argue that the Dems would be favorites here in 2022. To be on the safe side, I’m classifying the district as a Toss-Up regardless, given that the national environment is expected to favor the GOP and that the district’s trends don’t seem great for the Dems overall. (The Dems down-ballot successes might not be as meaningful this cycle, given the general increase in polarization.)
MI SD 13
MI SD 13 is based primarily in Wayne County (home to Detroit) and Oakland County (directly north of Detroit), encompassing suburbs such as West Bloomfield Township. Geographically, much of the Oakland part of the new SD 13 is currently contained SD 15, which is the only Biden/GOP-held senate district in the state, while much of the Wayne part of SD 13 is currently contained in the more Dem-leaning SD 7. Note that both the existing SDs 15 and 7 have been competitive districts that have been trending blue, with Biden narrowly carrying SD 15 by just under 3 points, after Romney and Trump (in 2016) carried it by about 4 to 6 points, while SD 7 flipped to the Dems in 2018 (with Dem Dayna Polehanki winning the open seat by a little more than 3 points) and was extremely close at the presidential level in 2012 and 2016, with both Obama and Clinton carrying the district by less than 2 points, though Biden carried it by a much larger 11-point margin. The new SD 13 is a quite a bit more Dem leaning than either of the two districts above, with Clinton carrying it by about 8 points and Biden carrying it by between 14 and 15 points. Note that neither Jim Runestad (the current Republican incumbent in SD 15) nor Polehanki reside in the new district. However, Rosemary Bayer, the Dem incumbent in the nearby existing SD 12, is planning on running in the new SD 13. Given Biden’s decent margin in the district, the Dems should be favored in SD 13, but with a national environment likely favoring the GOP, the district should be somewhat competitive, so I’m classifying it as Lean Democrat.
MI SD 14
MI SD 14 is based around Ann Arbor, home to the University of Michigan. Under the existing boundaries, the Ann Arbor area has been heavily gerrymandered to favor the GOP, with the core of Ann Arbor being confined to SD 18, a solidly blue district that supported Biden by over 55 points. However, the 2022 redistricting undoes much of this gerrymandering, with two Dem leaning districts based around Ann Arbor. One of the two districts, SD 15, is a completely safe district for the Dems (like the current SD 18) and would have supported Biden by about 47 points. However, the new SD 14, which contains the western portions of the city and the immediate surrounding areas (many of which are currently located in the Republican leaning SD 22) is also decently Dem-leaning. At the presidential level, Biden would have fairly easily carried SD 14 by between 10 and 11 points, though the district would have been a bit closer in 2016, with Clinton carrying it by a single-digit margin of 7-points. As with many other districts, SD 14 seems to be open for 2022, as there don’t seem to be any eligible (i.e. not term-limited) senate incumbents residing here. Given the fundamentals, the Dems should be somewhat favored here, but the district will likely be competitive (as an open seat in a Biden midterm), so I’m classifying it as Lean Democrat. It should also be noted that college turnout could be a factor here.
Thanks to Bridge Michigan website (for the 2020 and 2016 pres election results under the new boundaries and map of incumbents), Drew Savicki and @umichvoter (for additional 2020 results under new boundaries), Daily Kos Elections (for statewide/presidential results under the existing boundaries), and New York Times (for precinct-level data).