We’ve seen indictments this week of Oath Keepers for sedition. John Rhodes bought over $30,000 worth of weapons and ammunition immediately prior to January 6th, and brought it with him.
But while the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys were organizing to storm the Capitol, the plan was moving forward with the hope that Mike Pence would cooperate. He didn’t formally announce he wouldn’t play Trump’s game until just before the vote counting began.
The Eastman memo laid out a six step plan, and step 4 involved sending the election to the House, where each delegation would get one vote. And here’s where the need for violence kicks in, folks.
The number of Republicans who would back Trump for President is, probably, about the same number as voted not to certify the electoral college votes — 139. Some might cave under pressure if the vote really mattered, while others might have second thoughts for the same reason. Here’s the Coup Caucus.
Here’s the composition of each House delegation after the 2020 elections — the new House was already seated on January 6th.
If you count the members of the Coup Caucus by state, Trump had enough to win the following states:
State |
Coup caucus count |
total delegates |
alabama |
6 |
7 |
Arizona |
5 |
9 |
Kansas |
3 |
4 |
lousiana |
4 |
6 |
mississippi |
3 |
4 |
missouri |
5 |
8 |
montana |
1 |
1 |
north carolina |
7 |
13 |
oklahoma |
5 |
5 |
south carolina |
5 |
7 |
tennessee |
7 |
9 |
Utah* |
2 |
4 |
west virginia |
2 |
3 |
Utah gets an asterisk because I’m not sure what happens if a delegation is evenly split.
If membership in the Coup Caucus is a reliable indication of how delegates would have voted had the Presidential election gone to the House, Trump would have won 12 or 13 delegations, and Biden the remaining 38 or 37. And in several states his margin would have been thin — he couldn’t afford to lose even a single Coup Caucus member in Arizona, Kansas, Louisiana, Missouri, Montana, North Carolina, Utah, or West Virginia without the state at a minimum becoming a tie. He had only Alabama, Oklahoma, and Tennessee with cushion.
This is obviously a major flaw in the Trump / Eastman seditious conspiracy. Even if Mike Pence cooperates, Biden still wins. Unless, of course armed men were in the Capitol, and people who didn’t vote to elect Trump were shot on the spot.
That was the plan. That’s why the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys were stirred up prior to Pence’s announcement. The attack on the Capitol was going to happen no matter what Pence did; because even with Pence’s cooperation, the members of the House needed to be in fear of immediate death for the Eastman memo to succeed.
There was never a non-violent path to Trump’s second term. He knew it. Eastman knew it. Bannon knew it.