Ann Coulter is an avowed racist and antisemite. I can’t stand her. Yet there is one thing that I have always acknowledged: she has her finger on the pulse of the right-wing. In June 2015, there was a discussion on Bill Maher’s show about who would win the GOP nomination, and Ann Coulter said “Donald Trump” to uproarious laughter. Recall at this time, Trump was a joke candidate that very few took seriously. I remember seeing graphics on news channels that featured the “serious” candidates of Jeb, Mitt, Marco, and Scott Walker, but none of Trump. No one thought he would win the nomination, much less the election—including Trump himself.
Now Ann Coulter has made another bold claim that both sides think is equally ridiculous, and that is her claim that Trump is finished. How can that be? He’s the unofficial leader of the GOP. He has turned the Republicans into a cult of personality that has spawned into a literal cult who thinks he’s the Second Coming. Few seem willing to stand up to all his lies and craziness. But if you look at the clear trajectory of Donald Trump, some uncomfortable truths about his chances, and finally, what’s behind his poll numbers, you come to the same inescapable conclusion.
Many people are comparing Trump’s trajectory to Adolf Hitler, where he made a ridiculous coup attempt, was given essentially a slap on the wrist, and then immediately started to rise to power. A more accurate trajectory would probably be a former GOP darling named Sarah Palin. This comparison is so obvious that Ann Coulter used it as well. When Sarah Palin was selected to be John McCain’s running mate in 2008, it was because she was a flame thrower. Angry white men packed stadiums to hear her hateful diatribes against Muslims and immigrants while claiming Obama “pals around with terrorists.” If Trump was a thing, it was because Palin proved there was a market for such hate.
I recall seeing car stickers on pickup trucks here in Florida (before flags became vogue) that only said PALIN. She completely overshadowed John McCain with her divisive, hateful rhetoric. Furthermore, like Trump, Palin was extremely incompetent and unprepared. McCain would admit later that he deeply regretted choosing her as his running mate. Nonetheless, she was the face of the new GOP.
After losing the election, she was considered a frontrunner for 2012. There was a “Draft Palin” movement supported by Fox News. She was giving keynote speaking slots at conservative conferences like CPAC. Some establishment figures tried to groom her for a run. She formed a super PAC, and her endorsements were coveted. She was singularly responsible for Christine O’Donnell’s (Delaware) and Sharon Angle’s (Nevada) GOP primary Senate victories in 2010.
Then it all crashed. She made the news for all the wrong reasons. Obama’s oratory gift was often contrasted with Palin’s incoherent screeds on Fox News, which ended up dropping her because of the embarrassment she caused. The establishment was furious at her for supporting fringe candidates who crashed and burned and blamed her for costing them the Senate with Angle’s and O’Donnell’s spectacular failures. (Remember O’Donnell’s ad claiming she wasn’t a witch? Good times.)
Palin’s speeches attracted less and less attention, until an Iowa speech went so far off the rails that even pundits that loved her admitted she shouldn’t speak at Republican events.
Yet for everything you can say about Palin, you have to admit Trump is far, far worse. Palin graciously conceded when her ticket lost. She wasn’t stupid enough to claim that her landslide loss was due to thousands of Republican officials and judges conspiring against her. Even Palin’s people didn’t stop the GOP’s takeover of the House in 2010, whereas Trump single-handedly cost the GOP both Houses of Congress and the presidency within two years. His pick of Hershel Walker and his feud with Brian Kemp will likely cost him Georgia again this year, at least.
The latest CIVIQs poll shows Trump’s approval among all voters at negative 14%. With the exception of non-college-educated white men, which is 23% net favorable, there is not one subgroup that goes over 15% net favorable rating. Women are minus 24%. Hispanic/Latinos are minus 44%. African Americans are minus 85%. White men? 14%.
These numbers don’t line up with the narrative that Trump is popular with half the nation. Ann Coulter supposes that the reason Trump has such a high favorable rating among people who identify as Republicans is that the Republican party is now identified as the party of Trump. So mostly diehard Trumpists are identifying themselves as GOP, while all the other conservatives are identifying as non-party affiliated/independent.
Of course, if the choice is between Trump and Biden, I expect a lot of them will hold their nose and vote for Trump. But if there is a real choice in the GOP primary, Trump is toast. That’s why he and Roger Stone are telling everyone that if they try to compete, they are disloyal scum. We will see if Ron DeSantis caves. Truth be told, this is Ron’s best shot, and Fox News is pushing him hard on their viewers. By 2028, he will become a has-been.
Being a right-wing extremist, Ann doesn’t go into the toxicity of the Republican brand in general. The fact is that Trump is now primarily associated with the insurrection. The GOP can no longer claim their big issues are being pro-police and being fiscally responsible—that went out the window with Trump at the helm. Not to mention the fact that hundreds of Trump’s most loyal supporters are those who insist on being anti-mask and anti-vaxx, and are being killed BY THE HUNDREDS every day.
All this being said, Trump will definitely run again. He has to—the legal walls are closing in all around him. He’s hoping that the GOP will be there to pay his bills, which the RNC is already doing, and legislators will be there to protect him. None of that will happen if he isn’t the nominee. Trump desperately wants to be president again because all of his legal woes will go away as he abuses the DoJ and pardons his cohorts. The problem is that saving Trump from jail and running on election conspiracies from 2020 is not a solid platform for 2024. Everyone is sick of him, even conservatives. Not only has his schtick gotten old, but he’s getting more irrational by the day. Things are going to get much worse, not better.
Ann Coulter is not the only one who has turned on Trump. Brian Kilmeade said Trump needs to “learn how to lose.” Alex Jones called him a “dumbass.” A longtime RedState columnist pointed out how ridiculous Trump’s endorsements are, as Trump considers endorsing multiple people in races so he can take credit for whomever wins. Senators are calling his lies out (finally), including McConnell, Romney, Mike Rounds, Kevin Cramer, John Thune, and Shelley Capito. Keep in mind it’s only been one year since he was removed from power.
There was a time I was really worried that Sarah Palin might become president. No one fears that now. Trump will have his diehard cultists for years, but the rest of the country has moved on from this loser. When you begin to lose the most racist, hateful people in your party—the Ann Coulters—who the hell is going to be left?
I don’t agree with Ann Coulter on much, but she’s right. Trump is finished. He just doesn’t know it yet.
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