The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
● Redistricting: As the redistricting process rumbles onward nationwide, one key question emerges every time a new map is adopted: How much of the population in each new district comes from each old district? Scrutinizing a map won't tell you, but fortunately, Daily Kos Elections' redistribution tables will. We've put together tables for all of the states that have completed congressional redistricting so far and will keep updating this resource until every state is finished.
We've also written a detailed guide explaining exactly how to use these tables. They reveal, for instance, that 40% of the population of Oregon's brand new 6th Congressional District came from the old 1st District, while the remaining 60% was drawn from the old 5th.
This aspect of the new map presented a conundrum for Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader, who currently represents the old 5th: Most of his constituents, who've seen his name on the ballot for Congress in every election since 2008, now live in the 6th. However, his hometown of Canby—his proverbial base—is still in the new 5th.
Schrader in fact considered both districts when evaluating his re-election plans, but he ultimately decided to run in the new 5th, even though a smaller share of its population comes from the old 5th—47%—compared to the proportion that makes up the 6th (the 60% noted above). Put another way, Schrader already represents 420,000 people who live in the 6th but just 330,000 who live in the new 5th. Nevertheless, he opted to stick with the latter for what were doubtless a variety of reasons, with geographic familiarity likely high on the list.
This kind of question comes up over and over as states draw new maps, so you'll want to bookmark our complete data set and keep it handy all year.
● MS Redistricting: Mississippi's Republican-run state House passed a new congressional map on a party-line vote on Thursday, sending it to the state Senate, which is reportedly likely to take up the plan next week. While the map would not alter the GOP's current 3-1 advantage in the state's congressional delegation, Democrats opposed it because it would extend the majority-Black 2nd District to cover almost the entire length of the state down the Mississippi River. They instead proposed a more compact version that would incorporate more of the Jackson area, but it was rejected by Republicans.
● NH Redistricting: New Hampshire's Republican-run state House passed a new congressional map as well as a map for its own chamber on party-line votes on Thursday, sending them to the state Senate.
● NM Redistricting: Despite expressing some hesitancy earlier in the week, Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham signed New Mexico's new state Senate map on Thursday. Lujan Grisham's ratification came more than week after she approved a new map for the state House, even though the two reached her desk at virtually the same time.
The reasons for the governor's reluctance were unclear, though the Senate map was the subject of controversy on its way to passage after one top Democrat tried to swap in a substitute plan that would have replaced one developed in consultation with Native leaders. Tribal leaders vigorously opposed the alternative map, which was ultimately yanked in favor of the original proposal.
● OR-Gov: Secretary of State Shemia Fagan announced on Thursday that former New York Times columnist Nick Kristof was not eligible to run for governor, saying he "does not meet the constitutional requirements to serve." Those requirements include a mandate that candidates be Oregon residents for at least three years prior to election, a standard Fagan's office said Kristof did not meet.
In a letter to Kristof, who had been seeking the Democratic nomination, aides to Fagan cited a variety of factors in explaining the decision, foremost among them the fact that he'd been registered to vote in New York for two decades and cast a ballot there as recently as the Nov. 2020 elections. The letter called this a "particularly powerful" indicator of residency "because voting is the center of engaged citizenship."
Kristof claimed without evidence that a "failing political establishment in Oregon has chosen to protect itself, rather than give voters a choice" and promised to file a legal challenge.
● SC-Gov: Businessman John Warren announced Thursday that he would not seek a Republican primary rematch against Gov. Henry McMaster.
● WI-Gov, WI-Sen: Former Rep. Sean Duffy said Thursday that he would not seek the Republican nomination for governor, a declaration that came more than two months after Donald Trump publicly called on the now-New Jersey resident to take on Democratic Gov. Tony Evers. Duffy's decision leaves former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch as the only notable Republican in the primary, though businessman Kevin Nicholson has repeatedly said that he'll take on Evers if Sen. Ron Johnson decides not to retire.
Duffy added that he won't campaign for the Senate either if Johnson calls it quits, though he left open the possibility of running for office in Wisconsin again in the future.
● CA-13: Assemblyman Adam Gray's team said Wednesday that the lawmaker hasn't made any decisions about whether to challenge Rep. Josh Harder, a fellow Democrat who represents the current 10th District, in the new 13th or run for re-election. GV Wire writes, however, that his "camp acknowledged that a 2022 election decision is coming shortly." Harder's current constituents only make up about 30% of the 13th, while Gray represents 60% of the redrawn seat in the legislature.
On the Republican side, former Trump administration official Ricky Gill has yet to say where he'll run. The revamped 13th, which includes Merced and other communities in the mid-Central Valley, would have gone for Joe Biden 54-43, while Harder's existing 10th supported Biden by a much smaller 50-47 spread.
● CA-47: Former Orange County Republican Party chair Scott Baugh has picked up an endorsement from House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy for his bid against Rep. Katie Porter, a Democrat who represents the current 45th District but is seeking re-election in the redrawn 47th.
● CO-03: State Sen. Don Coram has launched a longshot campaign to deny the nationally infamous Lauren Boebert renomination in the June Republican primary. It's incredibly hard to envision Coram, who recently said that he "feel[s] bad for the 80% in the middle because the 10% on the far left and far right get all the attention," convincing enough GOP voters to fire a far-right congresswoman who has no trouble getting attention. The state senator, though, doesn't have a seat to run in following the adoption of Colorado's new legislative maps, so he may have just decided that he has nothing to lose.
● IL-01: Both state Sen. Elgie Sims and state Rep. Marcus Evans tell NBC Chicago that they're considering running to succeed retiring Rep. Bobby Rush, a fellow Democrat.
● NY-03: Deputy Suffolk County Executive Jon Kaiman announced Thursday that he would campaign to succeed Rep. Tom Suozzi, who defeated him in the 2016 Democratic primary for New York's 3rd Congressional District. Kaiman joins a field that currently includes Nassau County Legislator Josh Lafazan and 2020 candidate Melanie D'Arrigo in a state where redistricting is still in process.
Kaiman, who is a former North Hempstead town supervisor, ran here six years ago when this seat last opened up, but he ended up getting badly outspent by Suozzi and two other intra-party foes; Suozzi ultimately won the nomination with 36%, while Suffolk County Legislator Steve Stern and Kaiman were well behind with 22% each. Kaiman kicked off his new campaign by arguing he stood for the "traditional values of the Democratic Party" and opposed efforts to move it too far to the left.
● WV-02: Republican Rep. David McKinley has released a TV ad, backed by a $111,000 buy, ahead of his May primary with fellow incumbent Alex Mooney that makes it clear just how McKinley plans to go after his colleague.
McKinley's commercial begins by highlighting the fact that his rival is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for allegedly spending campaign funds on personal expenses, with the narrator declaring that Mooney spent "$1,900 at Chick-fil-A" and "$6,100 on luxury travel to a theme park in California." After quoting Forbes calling Mooney "the portrait of a political prostitute," the commercial ends by alluding to his out-of-state origins by dubbing him "Maryland Senator Alex Mooney."
● Suffolk County, MA District Attorney: Republican Gov. Charlie Baker has chosen state Sex Offender Registry Board chair Kevin Hayden to replace Rachael Rollins, a Democrat who is leaving to become U.S. attorney for Massachusetts. While Rollins has repeatedly clashed with Baker over criminal justice reforms, she praised his pick. Hayden, who is a registered Democrat, will serve out the final year of Rollins' term as the top prosecutor in Suffolk County, which includes Boston and three nearby communities, though it's not clear yet if he'll run in the November general election to keep this prominent post.