Just a quick post about something in The NY Times October 11, 2022:
Here’s what Russia’s attacks may indicate about its weapons stockpile.
The Russian missile and drone attacks that killed at least 19 people across Ukraine on Monday were traumatic and wide-ranging, but they were not as deadly as they could have been, in the context of a war that has included widespread civilian killing.
That has renewed questions over the quality of Russia’s weapons and about the capacity of its forces to carry out President Vladimir V. Putin’s military designs.
Ian Storey, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said it could be a sign that Russia’s guided missiles are not very effective, or that it is running short of precision munitions. Most of the missiles targeted energy and other civilian services, in what Mr. Putin said was retaliation for a blast on Russia’s bridge to occupied Crimea.
emphasis added
Russia may be running low on sophisticated missiles.
Many of Russia’s attacks — increasingly aimed at civilian targets — have been long-range strikes that used outdated, unguided and imprecise missiles, including some from the Soviet era. Ukrainian, Western and Russian analysts have said that the attacks appear to suggest that Russia is running low on its most sophisticated weapons.
Western intelligence officials say that Russia used up many of its most accurate weapons, including cruise missiles and certain ballistic missiles, in the early days of the invasion. Russia’s arms industry has long relied heavily on imported electronic parts. As a result, analysts say, sanctions and export controls appear to have limited the Kremlin’s ability to restock its supplies, leaving it to rely more on unguided munitions.
Experts said that by using dozens of precision missiles against civilian targets, Russia would have fewer to use on the battlefield as it faces Ukrainian counteroffensives in the east and south.
...It is increasingly turning to Iran and North Korea for supplies.
Russia has been buying military drones from Iran and, according to intelligence sources, artillery shells and rockets from North Korea. Analysts see both developments as a further sign that sanctions have hampered Russia’s military supply lines.
And here’s what Kos had to say October 10, 2022:
...And for those who say that Russia is “retaliating” for the Kerch bridge attack, 1) retaliation would be hitting a bridge or rail station Ukraine uses to move its equipment, and 2) Russia has been hitting Ukrainian civilian infrastructure literally every single day since February 24. Even playgrounds, in the morning, when kids might’ve been playing there (thank heavens for air raid sirens).
...The silver lining to Russia’s murderous terrorirsm, and it’s a shitty one but real, is that every munition expended against a civilian target is one less munition used against the Ukrainian armed forces that are, at this moment, pushing Russia back all across Ukraine.
There are lots of reasons Russia is losing this war, and amongst them, the unimaginably cruel prioritization of civilian targets over military ones. Russia has a limited number of long-range precision-guided missiles and rockets. Using up the last ones to take out playgrounds, rather than HIMARS or other high-value targets, only hastens the end of the war.
While Russia is tossing what it has left at targets whose only significance is that the indiscriminate destruction might somehow persuade Ukraine the cost of fighting back isn't worth the sacrifice, — precision weapons can have a real impact on Russia’s ability to wage war in the first place.
Each Excalibur round costs around $100,000, but no need to spray and pray. Nearly each round is money. And if you wonder if it’s worth spending a $100,000 round on a supply truck, note Russia’s biggest liability is logistics. Both the vehicle, the drivers, and the cargo are precious to Russia (especially ones supplying artillery, which is what we see in this video, along with their GRAD rocket launchers). Each loss is a hit on their ability to wage war. As a result, Russia has lost the ability to go on the offensive. Now, their ability to defend is being degraded.
There’s more to it. Just the presence of certain weapons and certain capabilities can shape the battle space, in ways that go beyond immediate destruction.
In a science fiction book “The Chosen” by S. M. Stirling and David Drake, there’s a scene where a young pilot is complaining to his father that while he and the members of his squadron have been able to take out enemy freight trains despite them being equipped with anti-aircraft gunners on special cars, they don’t have enough planes and crews to hit every such train.
His father points out that although some trains aren't being attacked, their gun crews, their weapons, the supplies they needed to operate, are still out of combat as effectively as if they’d been blown up. So — it's still making a difference.
For a real-world example, just demonstrating a capability can reshape contingency planning. The Doolittle Raid was not only pay back for Pearl Harbor, it forced Japan to reallocate military resources to defend the Japanese home islands, away from offensive operations elsewhere in the Pacific. And it’s why we are still having to take off shoes to board an airplane...
Ukraine’s ability to use precision weapons effectively is why Russia is flailing to respond on the battlefield, and why Russia is resorting to what are essentially terrorist tactics. It’s why Russia is having supply issues that go way beyond their demonstrated lack of competence — they have to operate under the assumption that no target within reach of the weapons Ukraine now has can be considered ‘safe’ from attack.
