The war in the country’s south and east continued apace through the strikes, with Russia mostly falling back, though it was attacking along one section of the front in the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia moved on Friday to reassure his country that it was making progress getting fresh troops to the front, saying that 16,000 draftees had recently been deployed “in units that get involved in fulfilling combat tasks.” He made the remarks as pro-war bloggers intensified their criticism over the reported deaths of new recruits fighting in Ukraine.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin likely attempted to make a virtue of necessity by announcing that his “partial” mobilization will end in “about two weeks”—the same time the postponed fall conscription cycle is set to begin. Putin told reporters on October 14 that “nothing additional is planned” and that "partial mobilization is almost over."[1] As ISW previously reported, Putin announced the postponement of Russia’s usual autumn conscription cycle from October 1 to November 1 on September 30, likely because Russia’s partial mobilization is taxing the bureaucracy of the Russian military commissariats that oversee the semiannual conscription cycle.[2] Putin therefore likely needs to pause or end his partial mobilization to free up bureaucratic resources for conscription. Putin ordered the conscription of 120,000 men for the autumn cycle, 7,000 fewer than in autumn 2021. However, Russia’s annexation of occupied Ukraine changes the calculus for conscripts. Russian law generally prohibits the deployment of conscripts abroad. Russian law now considers Russian-occupied Kherson, Zaporizhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts to be Russian territory, however, ostensibly legalizing the use of conscripts on the front lines.
Putin may intend for mobilized personnel to plug gaps in Russia’s frontlines long enough for the autumn conscripts to receive some training and form additional units to improve Russian combat power in 2023. Putin confirmed on October 14 that mobilized personnel are receiving little training before they are sent to the frontlines. Putin announced that of the 220,000 people who have been mobilized since his September 21 order, 35,000 are already in Russian military units and 16,000 are already in units “involved in combat missions.”[3] Putin also outlined the training these mobilized forces allegedly receive: 5-10 days of “initial training,” 5-15 days of training with combat units, “then the next stage is already directly in the troops taking part in hostilities.” This statement corroborates dozens of anecdotal reports from Russian outlets, milbloggers, and mobilized personnel of untrained, unequipped, and utterly unprepared men being rushed to the frontlines, where some have already surrendered to Ukrainian forces and others have been killed.[4] Even the 10 days of training that mobilized personnel may receive likely does not consist of actual combat preparation for most units; anecdotal reports suggest that men in some units wandered around training grounds without commanding officers, food, or shelter for several days before being shipped to Ukraine.[5] Many would-be trainers and officers were likely injured or killed in Ukraine before mobilization began.[6] Russian training grounds are also likely understaffed, a problem that will likely persist into the autumn conscription cycle. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on October 14 that Russian military officials in Krasnodar Krai suspended sending mobilized persons to the training grounds in Primorsko-Akhtarsk until November 1 because Russian training grounds are not ready to accommodate, train or comprehensively provide for a large number of personnel.[7]
www.understandingwar.org/…
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine earlier this year and the fighting that has followed has yielded some remarkable imagery, sometimes providing suggestions of what future warfare might look like, and other times seemingly recalling warfare of a previous age. Among the latest such video shows a close-quarters ‘duel’ fought between a pair of quadcopter unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, the kind that are familiar to hobbyists, but which now are also firmly established as critical capabilities in conflicts in all corners of the globe.
The video, just 16 seconds long, began to circulate widely on social media today and has attracted much commentary in the process. The footage is reportedly shot from a Ukrainian Armed Forces UAV, a Chinese-made DJI Mavic-type quadcopter, but no details about the type are discernable from the video. The camera aboard the drone observes what is purported to be a Russian (or pro-Russian) controlled quadcopter, which approaches the Ukrainian UAV before seemingly moving to collide with it, losing at least one rotor blade as a result, then plummeting toward the ground. The footage is undated but is said to have been taken in the skies over the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine.
Descriptions of the incident as a “WW1-style duel” or of the Ukrainian drone “destroy[ing] a Russian opponent” are a little fanciful, to say the least. It isn't clear to what degree the operator of either the Russian or the Ukrainian UAV was attempting to take down their opponent, but, based on the video, it’s not inconceivable that it was the Russian drone that was trying to knock down the Ukrainian Mavic. Moreover, there is evidence that on the pro-Russian side, at least, they are developing tactics to use drones against each other in aerial combat. A simple collision between two drones, even when operating in close vicinity, leading to an accidental kill seems somewhat unlikely, especially based on the video evidence we do have, but it's not an impossibility.
Regardless, in aerial combat, when it comes to destroying the opposition, ‘they all count.’ Whether deliberate or otherwise on the part of the Ukrainian drone operator, and whether either of these drones was actually armed with any kind of weapons or not, the result was one (apparently Russian) drone destroyed.
www.thedrive.com/...
Southern Ukraine: (Kherson Oblast)
Russian forces conducted limited ground attacks in northwestern Kherson Oblast on October 14 to regain lost positions. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack on Sukhyi Stavok, 10km southwest of Davydiv Brid and near the Inhulets River along the Kherson-Mykolaiv Oblast border.[39] Russian sources similarly reported that Russian troops are attacking Ukrainian strongholds around Sukhyi Stavok and making marginal gains in this area, although ISW has not observed any confirmation of Russian gains in the Sukhyi Stavok-Davydiv Brid pocket.[40] The Russian MoD and other Russian sources additionally claimed that Ukrainian troops are conducting ground attacks throughout northern and northwestern Kherson Oblast, particularly towards Piatykhatky (20km southeast of Davydiv Brid) and Ishchenka-Bezvodne (8km southeast of Davydiv Brid).[41] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian troops are reinforcing their positions along the Osokorivka-Novooleksandrivka line along the west bank of the Dnipro River north of Beryslav.[42] The same Russian sources also cautioned that the Ukrainian command is preparing for a counteroffensive northwest of Kherson City towards Ternovi Pody and Pravdyne.[43] ISW makes no effort to forecast potential Ukrainian operations.
Ukrainian military officials maintained operational silence regarding Ukrainian counteroffensive actions in Kherson Oblast on October 14. Footage and imagery taken by locals provides visual evidence of the continued Ukrainian interdiction campaign against Russian concentration areas and military assets east of Kherson City in the Beryslav-Nova Kakhkova area. Social media footage shows smoke rising over Tavriisk and the Kakhovka Raion (district), approximately 55km east of Kherson City.[44] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command confirmed that Ukrainian troops struck four Russian air defense positions in Beryslav and the Kakhkova Raion.[45]
www.understandingwar.org/...
www.dailykos.com/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued ground attacks in Donetsk Oblast on October 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks near Bakhmut, northeast of Bakhmut near Vesele and Nova Kamianka, and south of Bakhmut near Optyne, Odradivka, and Ivanhrad.[46] Russian sources made conflicting claims on whether Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from or rotating forces in and around Bakhmut.[47] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground attacks west of Donetsk City near Nevelske.[48] Russian news outlet RT reported that Ukrainian sabotage and reconnaissance groups frequently probe Russian positions near Zolotarivka, east of Siversk, indicating that the Russian position near Bilohorivka may be vulnerable.[49] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Ukrainian forces retreated from positions in the Vremivka area in western Donetsk Oblast and that Russian forces took positions on high ground near Vremivka, though ISW cannot verify this claim.[50]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
Russian sources continued to claim that Ukrainian troops are conducting counteroffensive operations in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast on October 14. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted ground attacks in the Kupyansk area.[34] A Russian milblogger similarly claimed that Ukrainian troops are continuing to attack along the Pershotravene-Kyslivka line, about 20km east of Kupyansk.[35] ISW offers no assessment of these Russian claims.
Russian sources conducted limited ground attacks to regain lost positions west of Kreminna on October 14. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian troops repelled a Russian attack near Terny, 16km northwest of Kreminna.[36] Russian sources similarly reported fighting ongoing in the Terny-Torske area, with one milblogger claiming that the 208th Russian Cossack Regiment is fighting near Terny.[37] Russian milbloggers claimed that between 35,000 and 45,000 Ukrainian personnel have concentrated along the Svatove-Kreminna line and that Ukrainian troops are continually conducting reconnaissance operations in the direction of Kreminna.[38] ISW offers no assessment of this Russian claim.
www.understandingwar.org/...
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A statement signed by more than 300 historians who study genocide, Nazism and World War II said Putin’s rhetoric about de-Nazifying fascists among Ukraine’s elected leadership is “propaganda.”
“We strongly reject the Russian government’s cynical abuse of the term genocide, the memory of World War II and the Holocaust, and the equation of the Ukrainian state with the Nazi regime to justify its unprovoked aggression,” the statement says. “This rhetoric is factually wrong, morally repugnant and deeply offensive to the memory of millions of victims of Nazism and those who courageously fought against it, including Russian and Ukrainian soldiers of the Red Army.
“We do not idealize the Ukrainian state and society. Like any other country, it has right-wing extremists and violent xenophobic groups. Ukraine also ought to better confront the darker chapters of its painful and complicated history. Yet none of this justifies the Russian aggression and the gross mischaracterization of Ukraine.”
One of the authors of the statement, Eugene Finkel, an associate professor at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University, told us the influence of Ukraine’s neo-Nazi faction is relatively small.
“Neo-Nazi, far right and xenophobic groups do exist in Ukraine, like in pretty much any other country, including Russia,” Finkel said. “They are vocal and can be prone to violence but they are numerically small, marginal and their political influence at the state level is non-existent. That is not to say that Ukraine doesn’t have a far-right problem. It does. But I would consider the KKK in the US and skinheads and neo-Nazi groups in Russia a much bigger problem and threat than the Ukrainian far right.”
www.factcheck.org/...
ASTANA — Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday there was no need for massive new strikes on Ukraine and that Russia was not looking to destroy the country.
Putin told a news conference at the end of a summit in Kazakhstan that his call-up of Russian reservists would be over within two weeks and there were no plans for a further mobilization.
He also repeated the Kremlin position that Russia was willing to hold talks, although he said they would require international mediation if Ukraine was prepared to take part.
Taken together, Putin’s comments appeared to suggest a slight softening of his tone as the war nears the end of its eighth month, after weeks of Ukrainian advances and significant Russian defeats. Wall Street shares opened higher as traders interpreted them as easing geopolitical tensions.
But Putin – who has said he would be ready to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s “territorial integrity” – also warned of a “global catastrophe” in the event of a direct clash of NATO troops with Russia.
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