Despite the fact that voters from the party out of power usually steamroll midterm elections, Democratic voters are almost equally as engaged this cycle as Republican voters. At the same time, President Joe Biden has improved his standing among key Democratic voting blocs over the past year, according to the final Daily Kos/Civiqs survey of the 2022 cycle.
Among registered voters, 84% said they would "definitely" vote this year, including 83% of Democrats, 89% of Republicans, and 80% of independents.
For Democrats, that's a vast improvement from reports earlier this year suggesting Republicans had a double-digit voter intensity advantage approaching 20 points in some polling.
But the Civiqs survey also revealed that Democratic voters increasingly believe President Biden is doing a better job of delivering on his campaign promises and improving their lives in the process. The survey revisited several questions Civiqs had posed to voters in previous polls, and Democratic respondents—particularly among people of color—have warmed to Biden over the past year.
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Asked this month if the Biden administration had done anything that "benefitted you personally" since 2021, 40% of voters said "yes" while 56% said "no." That doesn’t seem great at first blush, but it's a clear improvement from a year earlier, in August 2021, when just 37% responded "yes" and 57% said "no."
However, digging into the demographics suggests an even bigger upside for Biden.
Since a year ago, 11% more Democrats think Biden policies have benefitted them, 80% now compared to 69% in August 2021. Independents and Republicans barely budged in that timeframe.
Biden also enjoys improved standing among Democrats for having delivered on promises since earlier this year in April, when Civiqs first asked whether respondents agreed with this statement: “President Biden made a lot of promises during his campaign that he hasn't delivered on.”
In April, a solid 60% majority of voters agreed that Biden had failed to deliver, while a shrinking 48% plurality agree with the statement now. Among Democrats, Biden has cut the perception that he hasn’t delivered nearly in half, from 32% in April saying he hadn’t delivered to 18% holding that view now. Biden has also improved his standing with independents (68% said he was falling short in April, whereas 55% say that now), and even with Republicans (85% agreed he was failing in April, 77% say that now).
In terms of promises kept, Biden has improved his standing among a wide range of voters, but perhaps the most notable swing has come with Black, Latino, and especially urban voters.
Do you agree Biden made lots of promises he hasn't delivered on?
|
total
(Now/aug ‘21)
|
White
(Now/’21)
|
Black
(Now/’21)
|
Latino
(Now/’21)
|
urban
(Now/’21)
|
suburb
(Now/’21)
|
rural
(Now/’21)
|
|
| Agree |
48%, 60% |
53%, 65% |
33%, 46% |
31%, 44% |
40%, 57% |
46%, 59% |
54%, 63% |
|
| Disagree |
28%, 22% |
22%, 17% |
43%, 39% |
46%, 33% |
37%, 25% |
29%, 21% |
24%, 20% |
|
In April, Biden was underwater on the statement with Black voters (5 points), Latino voters (11 points), and urban voters (32 points)—all of whom were more likely to agree than disagree that Biden had failed to make good on his promises.
But several weeks from Election Day, two of the groups now disagree with the failed promises statement by double digits, putting Biden 10 points above water on it with Black voters and 15 points above water with Latino voters. Among urban voters, Biden went from a 32-point deficit to falling just 3 points short of achieving parity on the statement—a 29-point swing.
To be clear, President Biden's overall numbers still aren't as shiny as Democrats would prefer them to be heading into the midterms. But through policies such as student debt cancellation, historic investments in clean energy, and steps toward decriminalizing marijuana, Biden has given substantially more Democratic base voters a reason to cast a ballot this cycle.
On Daily Kos’ The Brief, we speak with polling giant Drew Linzer, who runs polling firm CIVIQs and comes in to talk about a new poll his team conducted for Daily Kos. He is also here to explain, as a professional, how to not stress out every time you see a poll going your way or the other way. One thing is for sure, though: We are living in historic times, and what that means for these midterms cannot be easily predicted—so Get Out The Vote!
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