After a short bout of exuberance about Democrats' midterm chances, the Beltway media narrative has taken a wicked turn against Democrats, sending some of them into that old familiar defensive crouch.
Perhaps the most decisive turning point in Democrats' perceived fortunes came earlier this week after the latest New York Times/Siena poll gave Republicans a 3-point edge among likely voters in the generic ballot. The poll was fatally flawed on multiple fronts, but the most glaring data point was the notion that female voters were equally split between Democrats and Republicans at 47%. For context, Joe Biden won women in 2020 by 15 points. In 2018, Democrats won women by 19 points.
“There isn’t another poll in America that shows that,” Democratic pollster Celinda Lake told The Nation's Joan Walsh. “If I did an outlier poll like that for a candidate, I’d have to do it over again at my own expense.”
In reality, some polls have shifted slightly in favor of Republicans, mostly by a point or two and well within the margin of error. But polling aside, as Vox noted, "the vibes have shifted a lot."
In other words, Democratic fortunes might not be quite as sunny as they were in late summer/early fall, but the swing of the "vibe" pendulum has been pretty unhinged.
Nonetheless, we're just a couple weeks out from what promises to be among the most consequential midterms of our lifetimes. The top four issues for registered voters in the October Daily Kos/Civiqs poll were (in order): The economy/jobs/inflation, fair elections and democracy, immigration, and abortion. But of those, only the economy, immigration, and abortion break 50% among at least one partisan group. Here's the breakdown:
Voters top four issues (Daily Kos/Civiqs poll)
|
Total |
Democrat |
Republican |
Independent |
| Economy/jobs/inflation |
58% |
38% |
83% |
60% |
| Fair elections/Democracy |
34% |
43% |
26% |
31% |
| immigration |
32% |
19% |
60% |
30% |
| abortion |
31% |
52% |
14% |
24% |
Campaign Action
Strategists are understandably trying to figure what the right closing message is? Have Democrats run too hard on abortion? Should they emphasize an economic message for the next two weeks since the issue tops nearly every poll?
Note that Democrats' primary concern is abortion, with 52% of Democratic voters prioritizing it. Economic concerns are the biggest issue for both Republicans (83%), and independents (60%). So if Democratic candidates are aiming to get their base to the polls, abortion continues to be the key driver.
As PPP pollster Tom Jensen told The Downballot this week, abortion has been uniquely motivating this cycle.
Jensen explained that most issues, regardless of what voters tell pollsters about them, don't result in any movement in terms a voter’s candidate choice. But on abortion, Jensen said, "I can't tell you how many polls we've done over the last 3-4 months where abortion moves the needle by 7 or 8 points."
In fact, abortion is poised to completely separate this midterm for Democrats in comparison to lackluster Democratic turnout in both 2014 and 2010, when Barack Obama was president.
"The big impact that [abortion] has had politically is giving our people a reason to be excited to go out and vote this fall in a way that did not really happen during the two Obama midterms," Jensen said.
Lake agrees.
"Abortion is literally our best ‘get out the vote’ message—it’s how a lot of candidates will drive turnout," she explained. "We need to see higher turnout by women and younger voters, and that’s a message that can help.”
But Lake also stressed making an economic case in the final weeks, particularly given that it tops the issue list and Republicans are so vulnerable to it.
"Why aren’t more [Dems] saying, ‘We capped insulin prices, we gave you hearing aids, we capped Medicare expenses, and Rs will take all that away’? ... Why aren’t they saying Rs are promising to destroy Social Security & Medicare?”
In short, Democrats have stayed focused on abortion for good reason—it’s all about the base and we can’t win without it.
But in the final weeks, anyone who thinks they need to choose between prioritizing the short-term impacts of inflation or the longterm erosion of privacy rights under Republican rule needs to know that it’s a false choice. In fact, Democrats are cutting costs, Democrats are making health care more affordable, and Democrats are committed to safeguarding essential programs such as Social Security and Medicare.
Republicans, however, are a threat on both fronts—strangely obsessed with ending two of the most successful social welfare programs in American history while inserting the government into Americans’ bedrooms and private lives.
Voters need not choose between their money and their rights. Democrats are the total package. And frankly, Republicans have worked overtime to re-up the conversation about cutting Social Security and Medicare—a decades-long aspiration for them just like banning abortion nationwide.
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