The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● AK-AL, AK-Sen: Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski told the Alaska Federation of Natives on Friday that she'd be ranking Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola first in the instant-runoff general election, while the congresswoman used that same event to say that Murkowski was her number one pick for Senate.
Murkowski, though, seemed reluctant to publicly back the Democrat when the question was posed to her, as the Washington Post writes that she paused for 18 seconds before affirming that she was for Peltola, mumbling afterward, "I'm going to get in so much trouble." Peltola, by contrast, immediately responded, "I'm voting for her, so we're even-steven." Peltola's support for Murkowski, though, goes back much longer than this, as she helped run the senator's successful write-in effort in 2010.
Murkowski's declaration came days before two Alaska pollsters, the GOP firm Dittman Research and the Democratic group Alaska Survey Research, released numbers showing Peltola keeping her seat in November, but there's one big methodological issue in both: Neither firm allowed respondents to say they were undecided at any point in the ranked-choice process.
Dittman, which was in the field Oct. 4-8, found Peltola beginning with 45% as businessman Nick Begich edged out fellow Republican Sarah Palin 28-23 for second and Libertarian Chris Bye snagged only 3%. After simulating the instant runoff process, Peltola ended up with a 52-48 edge over Begich.
Alaska Survey Research, which polled more recently from Oct. 19-22, showed Peltola in much stronger shape. The congresswoman started with 49%, just shy of the majority she'd need to win outright, while Palin posted a 26-21 advantage over Begich as Bye snagged 5%. The firm found Peltola beating Palin 51-27 in round two after Bye was eliminated, but it also showed her defeating Begich 56-44 when they were the only two remaining options.
Unlike Dittman, Alaska Survey Research also took a look at the Senate race and found Murkowski edging out her intra-party rival, Kelly Tshibaka, 41-39, while Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley snagged 16% and 4%, respectively. After the two trailing candidates were eliminated from contention, the firm showed Murkowski beating Tshibaka 55.5-44.5.
These are all good numbers for both Peltola and Murkowski, but again, the two pollsters' decision not to allow respondents to say they're undecided is a big potential issue. As we've written before, when a survey does not allow voters to say they're still making up their minds and instead forces them to choose a side, it's leaving out a critical piece of information about the state of the race—and not adhering to best practices.
Begich, for his part, is betting he can drag Peltola down with a new spot, which appears to be the first negative TV ad that anyone's run against the Democrat this entire year. As black and white footage plays of bombs being dropped from a plane, the narrator warns that if Peltola wins a full term, "Alaskans will experience the shock and awe of inflation plus taxation, landing right on your family finances."
One Republican who was not all impressed by Begich's effort was Zack Brown, the former communications director to the late GOP Rep. Don Young. Brown, who backs Peltola, tweeted that this Begich spot is "nearly an EXACT COPY of Young's 'shock & awe' ad from '08," and he shared a copy of that very similar older commercial. "He won't put in the effort to make an original ad," continued Brown, "how much effort will he bring to Congress?"
Brown is far from the only former Young aide who wants to see Peltola re-elected despite their party differences. While Palin, who backed an unsuccessful 2008 primary challenge against the incumbent, continues to have plenty of detractors after abruptly resigning as governor the next year, Insider's Bryan Metzger reports that Young's old employees, known as "Youngworld," have a much more recent and more personal animosity toward Begich.
Begich himself was a former Young ally who even co-chaired his final campaign in 2020, and Metzger notes that Begich spent about a month working in the congressman's office the next year only to launch a bid against Young soon afterward. "It was just such an invasion of our goodwill and the Congressman's goodwill," one unnamed staffer said, adding, "We were completely hoodwinked and betrayed."
Young died in March before that faceoff could occur, but much of Youngworld remains as furious as ever. Brown on Monday night tweeted a picture of Begich's intern badge, writing, "Begich was planning on primarying Young all along. He used DY & staff to secure inside info.” Brown followed up, “According to FEC docs, he claimed campaign expenses BEFORE he came on as an INTERN in Don Young's office. He KNEW he was going to primary Young before he joined our office, but used the Congressman and staff for his own ends anyway. Disgraceful.”
Peltola, by contrast, had a close relationship with Young for decades, and she even hired his chief of staff to run her office after winning the August special election. Several of Young's former staffers have reciprocated by throwing her a fundraiser and filming an ad for the new incumbent. Young's daughter, Joni Nelson, even used last week's Alaska Federation of Natives event to present Peltola with one of her father's famed bolo ties.
Even Palin, who was close to Peltola when they served together in state government in the mid-2000s, has continued to shower her rival, who is the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress, with praise. While both the 2008 vice presidential nominee and Begich have encouraged their supporters to rank the other Republican second, Palin used last week's gathering to say of the congresswoman, "I love her dearly. I'm as proud of her as all of you are." Palin continued, "And doggone it … I just wish she'd convert on over to the other party."
National Republicans are presumably far less fond of Peltola than Palin is, but surprisingly, GOP outside groups have yet to spend any serious money in this contest. Peltola, by contrast, has benefited from $1 million in support from a super PAC called Vote Alaska Before Party.
Senate
● CO-Sen: The League of Conservation Voters is spending an additional $1.3 million to help Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet.
● NH-Sen: CNN reports that Restoration PAC, a group funded by GOP megadonor Richard Uihlein, has booked at least $340,000 to help Republican Don Bolduc days after the Senate Leadership Fund canceled its remaining $5.6 million reservation.
● Polls:
CT-Sen: Quinnipiac University: Richard Blumenthal (D-inc): 56, Leora Levy (R): 41 (Sept.: 57-40 Blumenthal)
GA-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 48, Herschel Walker (R): 47 (Sept.: 46-46 tie)
NV-Sen: Insider Advantage (R) for American Greatness (pro-Laxalt): Adam Laxalt (R): 48, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 46 (Sept.: 46-43 Laxalt)
OH-Sen: Cygnal (R): J.D. Vance (R): 47, Tim Ryan (D) 43 (Mid-Oct.: 47-43 Vance)
OH-Sen: Marist College: Vance (R): 46, Ryan (D): 45 (Sept.: 46-45 Vance)
OH-Sen: Siena College for Spectrum News: Ryan (D): 46, Vance (R): 46 (Sept.: 46-43 Ryan)
OH-Sen: Data for Progress (D): Vance (R): 49, Ryan (D): 46
PA-Sen: SSRS for CNN: John Fetterman (D): 51, Mehmet Oz (R): 45
WA-Sen: KAConsulting (R) for Citizens United: Patty Murray (D-inc): 48, Tiffany Smiley (R): 42
WI-Sen: SSRS for CNN: Ron Johnson (R-inc): 50, Mandela Barnes (D): 49
NV-Sen: American Greatness is a group that denies the results of the 2020 election.
OH-Sen, GA-Sen: Data for Progress' Ohio poll was finished Oct. 12, while its Georgia numbers were completed about a week ago on Oct. 17.
OH-Sen: AdImpact reports that as of Monday, Ryan has booked $3.3 million in ads compared to just $434,000 for Vance, but GOP groups have a $7.9 million to $3.1 million reservation edge over their counterparts.
PA-Sen: This is the best result for Fetterman from any reliable poll conducted in October.
WA-Sen: KAConsulting is the firm run by Kellyanne Conway. And yes, the client is that Citizens United.
Governors
● FL-Gov: Democrat Charlie Crist's team said Thursday that campaign manager Austin Durrer was resigning to "focus on a family matter," but NBC reported soon afterward that Durrer had been arrested earlier in the week on a second-degree misdemeanor assault charge. On Friday, Crist's camp said Durrer "was dismissed as soon as the campaign learned of this situation."
● NH-Gov, NH-Sen: The Republican firm Insider Advantage has released a new survey for American Greatness, a group that denies the results of the 2020 election and doesn't seem to know who is actually running in the 2022 election. The initial writeup, as well as the poll's crosstabs, said respondents were asked how they'd vote in the governor's race between incumbent John Sununu and Democrat Tom Sherman: American Greatness later posted an update saying, "We have removed the polling question for the governor's race due to an error," though Insider Advantage told FiveThirtyEight afterward that it asked about the correct Sununu.
New Hampshire's current chief executive, of course, is Chris Sununu, who is a member of a prominent local political family with two Johns in it. His father, John H. Sununu, led the Granite State from 1983 to 1989 and later became George H.W. Bush's White House chief of staff, while brother John E. Sununu lost re-election to the Senate in 2008. Neither of them, though, are running for governor this year, though Insider Advantage found a Sununu would lead Sherman 54-37.
That question came after Insider Advantage found Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan fending off Republican Don Bolduc 48-47, both of whom are actually on the ballot: Insider Advantage's crosstabs, though, show the question as, "If the race for the U.S. Senate in Neew [sic] Hampshire were held today, for whom would you vote?" This survey was publicized days after the conservative Senate Leadership Fund pulled out of the state, so presumably its numbers showed Hassan in much better shape in the great state of Neew Hampshire.
● NY-Gov: Politico reports that Republican Lee Zeldin's super PAC allies have deployed an additional $3.4 million in recent days, which brings their total spending since August up to $11 million.
● OR-Gov: Tina Kotek is out with a commercial distancing herself from termed-out Gov. Kate Brown, a fellow Democrat who is finishing up her term with weak ratings, and the status quo. "Nobody in Oregon would say, 'Let's keep doing exactly what we've been doing,'" Kotek tells the audience, continuing, "I called for a homelessness state of emergency nearly three years ago while Kate Brown did nothing and [Republican] Christine Drazen killed efforts to make our streets safer." Kotek finishes, "We certainly don't need a red state takeover to clean up the damn trash."
● Polls:
CT-Gov: Quinnipiac University: Ned Lamont (D-inc): 56, Bob Stefanowski (R): 41 (Sept.: 57-40 Lamont)
CT-Gov: SurveyUSA for Education Reform Now Advocacy CT: Lamont (D-inc): 52, Stefanowski (R): 34
GA-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Brian Kemp (R-inc): 53, Stacey Abrams (D): 43 (Sept.: 51-44 Kemp)
MI-Gov: Cygnal (R): Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 50, Tudor Dixon (R): 44 (Mid-Oct.: 49-44 Whitmer)
MI-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Whitmer (D-inc): 52, Dixon (R): 46
NV-Gov: Insider Advantage (R) for American Greatness (pro-Lombardo): Joe Lombardo (R): 49, Steve Sisolak (D-inc): 43, Brandon David (L): 4
NY-Gov: Bold Decision (D): Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 52, Lee Zeldin (R): 37
OH-Gov: Cygnal (R): Mike DeWine (R-inc): 55, Nan Whaley (D): 37 (Mid-Oct.: 56-34 DeWine)
OH-Gov: Marist College: DeWine (R-inc): 53, Whaley (D): 40 (Sept.: 55-37 DeWine)
OH-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: DeWine (R-inc): 58, Whaley (D): 34 (Sept.: 55-32 DeWine)
OH-Gov: Data for Progress (D): DeWine (R-inc): 57, Whaley (D): 38
OR-Gov: Data for Progress (D): Christine Drazan (R): 43, Tina Kotek (D): 42, Betsy Johnson (I): 12
PA-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Josh Shapiro (D): 56, Doug Mastriano (R): 41
TX-Gov: Beacon Research (D) for the Democratic Policy Institute: Greg Abbott (R-inc): 48, Beto O'Rourke (D): 46
TX-Gov: Siena College for Spectrum News: Abbott (R-inc): 52, O'Rourke (D): 43 (Sept.: 50-43 Abbott)
WI-Gov: SSRS for CNN: Tony Evers (D-inc): 50, Tim Michels (R): 48
CT-Gov: Education Reform Now Advocacy CT is an affiliate of Democrats for Education Reform, an anti-teachers union outfit.
NY-Gov: Bold Decision is run by Democratic consultant Adam Rosenblatt and much of the team behind Core Decision Analytics, which released several surveys last year of the New York City Democratic mayoral primary for an unaffiliated lobbying group. This is the first survey we’ve seen from this pollster.
● Polls: A firm called Wick Insights has also dropped a series of polls, all of which were finished Oct. 13 or 14, and a few give Republicans their best numbers in any released survey:
AZ-Sen: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 49, Blake Masters (R): 46
GA-Sen: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 46, Herschel Walker (R): 46
NC-Sen: Ted Budd (R): 49, Cheri Beasley (D): 44
PA-Sen: Mehmet Oz (R): 49, John Fetterman (D): 45
AZ-Gov: Katie Hobbs (D): 48, Kari Lake (R): 47
GA-Gov: Brian Kemp (R-inc): 52, Stacey Abrams (D): 43
MI-Gov: Tudor Dixon (R): 48, Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 47
PA-Gov: Josh Shapiro (D): 49, Doug Mastriano (R): 46
Wick’s CEO is David Burrell, who also holds that title at the GOP firm Revily. Wick released several battleground polls the day before the 2020 presidential election that showed Donald Trump either ahead or very close, with Burrell writing at the time, “We are predicting that Donald Trump is going to win re-election.” Burrell explained:
Imagine the difficulty in achieving an accurate political poll — one that’s supposed to be representative of the honest beliefs of an entire population— in Communist China or North Korea. Would you trust it?
China and North Korea may seem to be extreme examples, but they’re the easiest modern-day example to illustrate that undemocratic societies have characteristics, such as limited freedom of expression and the use of propaganda, that make it difficult or impossible to obtain a set of survey respondents that is representative of a whole population.
In western democracies like America, having your beliefs and opinions represented through polling has been a long-standing component of participating in the democratic process. And thus, like the debate commission and the media, pollsters have been fixtures in the democratic process. But in 2020, we have started to demonstrate some pretty undemocratic characteristics that could be putting stress on the magic behind the ability for public opinion research to be truly representative.
For this new release, Burrell argues that other firms are overestimating Democrats because they don’t weight by vaccination status. “In our latest battleground polling our team noticed boosted individuals are participating in polls at much higher rates than their counterparts which resulted resulted [sic] in a 3% to 5.5% error in polls before our team started correcting for it,” Burrell said, adding, “This discovery is a symptom of an amplified selection bias that has significantly impacted a number of polls up to this point in favor of Democrats.”
House
● Independent Expenditures: The newest edition of our major House group independent expenditures tracker is live, and it shows that the two main GOP organizations, the NRCC and Congressional Leadership Fund, threw down another $39 million from Oct. 18-24 compared to $31 million from the DCCC and House Majority PAC. Altogether, these two GOP super PACs have outspent their Democratic counterparts $191 million to $136 million during the general election across 61 House seats.
We rolled out our update the same day that Politico reported that the DCCC is dropping $600,000 in New York's 17th District to aid its chair, Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, following $3.6 million in attacks from the GOP. This spending, which makes it the first major Democratic group to get involved here, is a hybrid TV buy with Maloney rather than an independent expenditure, which is an important distinction. These hybrid ads not only allow Maloney and the D-trip to split the cost of the spots, they also benefit from the lower ad rate that candidates are entitled to under federal law. The NRCC, by contrast, announced later in the day that it was spending $870,000 more on an independent expenditure campaign.
The DCCC's joint TV buy with Maloney opens by tying Republican Mike Lawler to "MAGA extremists" who tried to overturn the 2020 election, want to ban abortion, and "were accused of stoking antisemitism." Biden would have taken this Lower Hudson Valley constituency 54-44.
Altogether, the race that has attracted the most big four spending is now California's 22nd, a 55-42 Biden seat in the Central Valley: The GOP has deployed $8.7 million here to protect incumbent David Valadao, while Democrats have spent $6.6 million to help Rudy Salas. Not far behind is Michigan's 7th, which spent weeks as the most expensive contest on the list. Biden would have won this seat in the Lansing area and northwestern Detroit exurbs by a tight 49.4-48.9, and Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin is trying to fend off Republican Tom Barrett here.
Some of the other expensive House battles in the nation, by contrast, are taking place in areas that didn't host a particularly high-profile race in 2020. One such battleground is Democratic Rep. Dina Titus' Nevada's 1st, which the Democratic legislature made much more competitive in order to try to protect 3rd District Rep. Susie Lee and 4th District Rep. Steven Horsford. The GOP has used $5.5 million here to help Mark Robertson compared to $4.8 million from Democrats, though Lee's contest is still considerably more pricey.
The NRCC and CLF, by contrast, have yet to engage in Horsford's race, though a GOP super PAC called Morning In America has spent $980,000 so far. Democrats, though, have committed $4 million to help Horsford against Republican Sam Peters.
The GOP, meanwhile, is continuing to make an expensive effort to flip Indiana Rep. Frank Mrvan's 1st District in the northwestern part of the state, an area that last sent a Republican to the House in 1928. Biden would have won 53-45 here, but both sides agree this is now very competitive turf: Republican groups have dropped $4.1 million for Jennifer-Ruth Green, while Team Blue has spent $3.2 million so far.
There's also a pricey rematch in California's 49th District north of San Diego between Democratic incumbent Mike Levin and Republican Brian Maryott. Levin prevailed 53-47 in a 2020 contest that didn't attract much outside attention, but this time, CLF and the NRCC have narrowly outspent their Democratic counterparts $3.4 million to $3.3 million. Biden would have won 55-43 in this new seat, which is similar to his performance under the old lines.
There's a lot more to see, and you can check out our updated major House group independent expenditures tracker for more.
● Polls:
MD-02: KAConsulting (R) for the Maryland Republican Party: Dutch Ruppersberger (D-inc): 43, Nicolee Ambrose (R): 34
MD-06: KAConsulting (R) for the Maryland Republican Party: David Trone (D-inc): 42, Neil Parrott (R): 37
MI-07: Glengariff Group for the Detroit News: Elissa Slotkin (D-inc): 47, Tom Barrett (R): 41
TX-15: Bendixen & Amandi (D) for Way To Win (pro-Vallejo): Michelle Vallejo (D): 45, Monica De La Cruz (R): 45
MI-07: The sample also finds Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is a former state senator from the Lansing area, up 51-40.
TX-15: This poll, which was finished Oct. 14, has Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ahead 45-44 here.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● Polls:
MI-AG: Cygnal (R): Dana Nessel (D-inc): 45, Matthew DePerno (R): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 45-43 Nessel)
MI-SoS: Cygnal (R): Jocelyn Benson (D-inc): 48, Kristina Karamo (R): 41 (Mid-Oct.: 48-40 Benson)
MI-SoS: SSRS for CNN: Benson (D-inc): 51, Karamo (R): 47
TX-AG: Siena College for Spectrum News: Ken Paxton (R-inc): 48, Rochelle Garza (D): 42 (Sept.: 47-42 Paxton)
Ballot Measures
● AR Ballot: A new Hendrix College poll taken on behalf of the local news site Talk Business & Politics finds voters tied 39-39 on whether to approve Issue 2, a ballot measure that if adopted would amend Arkansas' constitution to require 60% voter support for any future ballot initiatives to become law. The 60% supermajority requirement would also apply to constitutional amendments referred to the ballot by lawmakers but not to regular statutes enacted by legislators. As we explained last year, Arkansas Republicans put Issue 2 on the ballot this cycle as part of their multi-year effort to kill off progressive ballot initiatives.
Arkansas voters in recent years have used initiatives to pass key progressive policies such as a 2018 minimum wage increase, and they could do so again this year if they approve Issue 4, a measure that would legalize recreational marijuana usage (which the above poll apparently did not survey). But the GOP's attempt to restrict initiatives via Issue 2 isn't just a reaction to those progressive policies, it's also likely a proactive effort to defend their power to gerrymander, since voters unsuccessfully attempted to put an independent redistricting commission on the ballot the last two election cycles and could try again in 2024.
Back in 2020, voters defeated the previous Republican attempt to restrict ballot initiatives by rejecting a GOP-backed amendment that would have made it practically impossible for progressives—but not conservatives—to put measures on the ballot. That failed measure would have imposed a much stricter geographic distribution requirement for voter signatures that would have asymmetrically burdened progressive-leaning voters compared to conservative ones. However, the GOP is likely betting that voters will be more open to supporting the more straightforward change proposed by this year's ballot measure.
Polling has been very limited for Issue 2, but in the open governor's race, the same Hendrix poll above finds Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders ahead by an unimpressive 51-41 spread even though both parties have long acted as if she's headed for a decisive win in a state that Trump won 62-35 two years ago. Consequently, it's possible this poll's sample was somewhat too favorable to Democrats.
● MI Ballot: SSRS' new survey for CNN finds Proposal 3, which would enshrine the right to an abortion into the Michigan state constitution, ahead 54-45, which falls right between what two other pollsters have shown this month. A mid-October media survey from EPIC-MRA that put "yes" up 60-33, while more recent numbers from the GOP firm Mitchell Research & Communications for MIRS News had "yes" winning just 50-47.
Judges
● OH Supreme Court: Siena College's new poll for Spectrum News of the open-seat election for state Supreme Court chief justice also finds Republican Sharon Kennedy ahead by a slim 42-41 over Democrat Jennifer Brunner, both of whom are currently associate justices. That result is little changed from the 40-40 tie that Siena found in late September.
As we previously detailed, partisan control over Ohio's Supreme Court is at stake this year with Republicans defending a 4-3 majority, but the contest for chief justice won't affect the partisan balance because GOP Gov. Mike DeWine would likely just appoint a Republican to Brunner's current seat if she's elected chief justice. However, the chief justice does wield other important powers, and a close race in that election is a sign that the two other races for associate justice, which Siena does not appear to have polled this time, may also be very close. Democrats would need to win one of the two associate justice races to gain a majority on the bench.
Mayors
● Chicago, IL Mayor: Allies of Democratic Rep. Chuy Garcia have begun collecting signatures to place his name on the 2023 ballot for mayor, though the congressman himself hasn't decided if he'll challenge incumbent Lori Lightfoot. Anyone who wants to run has until Nov. 28 to turn in 12,500 valid signatures, though most serious candidates will try to collect at least three times this amount to give themselves a cushion in a city where aggressive petition challenges are a way of life.
The American Federation of Teachers also announced over the weekend that it was giving $1 million to support Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson, who is gathering petitions even though he hasn't declared he's in. The Chicago Teachers Union, which is an AFT affiliate, and United Working Families both endorsed Johnson last month: UWF's executive director said the organization decided it couldn't wait for Garcia to make up his mind, arguing, "It's just our experience in previous campaigns that you never get time back and we don't have unlimited money to make that up."
Other Races
● Harris County, TX Judge: The University of Houston finds Republican Alexandra del Moral Mealer with a narrow 47-45 edge over Democrat incumbent Lina Hidalgo in the race to lead Texas' largest county. Respondents favor Democrat Beto O'Rourke 50-42 against Republican Gov. Greg Abbott in a county that Biden took 56-43.
Ad Roundup
