Early returns in Colorado demonstrate that at least in the Centennial State (which became a state in 1876), that both Unaffiliated registered voters and Democratic registered voters are up from 2018 while Republican registered voters are down, Mid-term to Mid-term.
Colorado has one of the most progressive voting laws and voter registration administrations in the U.S. where in 2020 its Secretary of State reported (CBS Channel 7): The Math is suggesting there could be a Blue Tsunami here in Colorado.
Colorado had the nation’s second-highest voter turnout rate among both active registered voters (86.5%) and the voting-eligible population (76.4%), Griswold said, only topped by Minnesota. Griswold said that turnout among voters aged 18-24 was 76.7%.
Griswold said that 86% of voters returned their ballots prior to election day and 94% of voters of all parties voting using their mail ballots, with 12,260 people registering to vote on Election Day.
Today the CO’s Secretary of State's reporting of voter returns is pictured here:
What is a change is that Unaffiliated (UFA’s) voters are casting at far higher rates than in 2018 and 2020 compared to previous years and this makes sense since now UFA’s now comprise over 45% of all voter registrations. What makes pollsters unhappy specifically in CO’s voter registration process is it is automatic registration whenever a citizen updates or applies for a driver's license. Previous to May 2020, DMV workers used to inquire whether unregistered persons if they'd like to register to vote. However, two years ago the state switched to automatically registering people with a chance to opt out later. Researchers found that basically doubled the number of new registrations. Colorado Secretary of State Griswald:
Denver, June 29, 2021 - Colorado’s Automatic Voter Registration (AVR) system has proved to be an overwhelming success, with just over 250,000 Coloradans registering to vote through the system since its implementation in May of 2020. AVR was part of the Democracy Package that Secretary of State Jena Griswold worked closely with the Colorado legislature to pass in 2019.
“Enabling Coloradans to easily register to vote is important, but never more so than during a national pandemic,” said Secretary Griswold. “AVR has expanded access to our elections and is allowing more eligible Colorado voters to participate in our democracy. The impressive number of new registrations shows how effective AVR can be.”
Under the AVR system, eligible voters who provide identification that shows citizenship are automatically registered to vote any time they apply for or renew their driver’s license. They are then sent a letter informing them they will be registered and offering the option to decline the registration or affiliate with a political party. This process adds only eligible voters who do not opt out of the registration. If voters do not provide identification that shows citizenship at a driver’s license office, they are walked through a process of registering to vote.
Indications now are most likely that Colorado voters will cast more votes than in 2018 and approach presidential year turnouts. Besides the national political sentiment, Colorado has top-of-the-ticket elections for senator and governor, (plus all state officers) and a new Congressional district notwithstanding a few ballot initiatives including legalizing recreational marijuana sales in some large jurisdictions that will draw interest.
What makes for high turnout percentages in Colorado is we mail a ballot to each active voter and allow the voter three weeks to return their ballot either from a drop-off box, mail it, bring it into a polling place, or vote in person at a voting center. THERE IS VERY LITTLE INTIMIDATION or any other delay tactic that can actually stop a voter from casting a ballot in Colorado except not receiving one or after the fact removing them from the voter rolls. One tactic found in 2008 and 2012 was an administrative change by corrupting an individual voter’s date of birth and therefore creating a mismatch when the ballot is received. Another common tactic is declaring a signature discrepancy. In either case, a voter can track their ballot which is little different than tracking your online merchandise delivery through ballottrax.com/…. see pic below.
All this is quite progressive where the state is executing the basic principle of equality of all voters providing them the most modern access to casting and having their vote recorded. It is a long-held and proven aspect of conservatism to limit access to voting as then conservative votes carry greater weight in determining who wins. Allowing disadvantaged voters to be it due to age, gender, financial means, location, racial/ethnicity, schedule or other obstacles outside the mainstream open access to voting is catastrophic to a conservative. And this is where the math comes in. Modern democracy demands the most basic equality; one person---one vote of equal measure. Add up the votes and declare a winner as in the will of the citizens in a society “of the people, for the people and by the people”.
Here is the math:
New registrations by Party Affiliation since July 2022:
Unaffiliated up 3.14%, Democratic up 1.14% Republican up 0.43%.
Total Registration by Party Affiliation
% by affiliation Unaffiliated 45.47%, Democratic 26.6%, Republican 24.87%, all others 3.05%
A recent non-partisan Colorado news poll that the two top-of-the-ticket Democratic candidates (Bennet and Polis) possess an 11% and 18% advantage when among registrations Democrats hold only a mere 1.73% voter base advantage. Simple they hold at least a 9-10% or greater advantage among Unaffiliated voters, who comprise almost half of Colorado voters.
Back in 2020, I conducted a study that found that for every new 100 voters registered in red county El Paso; In 2020 in El Paso, Democrats gained a net 4 to the GOP, 34-29 in direct registration splits when both parties experienced a 90% turnout. Among every new 100 Unaffiliated registrations Democrats realized a net 6 (53%-47%) split when 80% Unaffiliated voter turnout was factored in. Over the last 65 months since automated registration began Unaffiliated voters represented 65.52% of all new registrations, Democrats 16.81%, and Republicans 13.33%. Thus the math goes to why Bonnie and Clyde went after banks; that was “where the money was”. In Colorado the difference in winning is now squarely in the Unaffiliated voter block and why Republicans except for their gubernatorial candidate and Broebert (who is in trouble and running soft ads) have gone away from MAGA.
I created a simple function: 100f(x) =16.81d + 13.33r + 66.51u +4.45m (m = 3rd’s or minor parties)
Based on these generic 100 new voters and current crossover and UFA splits of the UFA new
registrations you have the following function based on 2020:
In conservative El Paso County, 100 new voters, Dem’s = 48.75 to 41.17 GOP votes, + 10.08 between 3rds & those not voting.
This was a net 7.58 gain per 100 new voters for Democratic candidates. The question then in battleground states and districts is whether this ratio of new voters falls within a range close to this trendline in El Paso County. One other item I found was that over the course of two presidential election cycles in El Paso County the electorate basically turns over 30% while adding new voters. Part of this is due to the inbred natural mobility of El Paso County with four major military installations, and high-tech, collegiate and recreational industries as the major economic drivers attracting aspirants and families. Colorado Springs has jobs, fair weather, and desired destination but also some of the most expensive housing expenses. This invites turnover.
Moving to the 40,000-foot level, pollsters must rely on actual data but the problem these days is that new registrants, especially those who are in same-day registration states, also include the wild card of early voting. Pollsters cannot capture them so they fall back on trying to capture what likely voters are thinking at the moment. This election, no different than what happened in 2020, does not reveal who are the new likely voters, yet this is and will be the determining factor.
So as I hear MSM talking heads, major newspaper pundits, and other commentators or mouthpieces they do not know what really is going to happen. My fear is that indeed a blue tsunami occurs and the Right will immediately cry fraud and foul not accepting the fact that a nation of new voters. It is a dangerous dance going forward.
Let me conclude with a dog-walking conversation with my Trump-cult neighbor. He doesn’t subscribe that democracy (anymore) is legitimate. He subscribes that all of them are taking over. They shouldn’t be allowed to vote he exclaims. I replied that what you are expressing sounds like the old German Lutheran pastor (Niemoller) who said:
“First they came for the communists [socialists], and I did not speak out—because I was not a communist [socialist].
“Then they came for the unions, and I did not speak out—because I was not a unionist.
Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out—because I was not a Jew.
Then they came for me—and there was no one left to speak for me.”
My neighbor look at me totally confused and said: “No only those born here and who pay taxes should be able to vote.”