The House Republicans’ threat to hold the debt limit hostage in return for drastic spending cuts if they gain the majority in next month’s midterm election is already creating angst for economists and analysts, even though the fight could be as much as a year away.
“If we go into recession, the response normally is stimulative fiscal policy, but it seems like the appetite for that may be waning. So that could exacerbate any downturn,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. Of course, the chief economist for JPMorgan Chase is not going to say, “Republicans are threatening harmful cuts,” but that’s what he’s saying. To continue to make the point that Republicans would be a disaster for the economy without saying Republicans would be a disaster for the economy, he pointed to the last time Republicans did this in 2011.
“It seems like we’re setting up for probably a pretty stressful episode again,” Feroli said. “I don’t know how to scale it,” he said of a potential debt default, but still said it’s a risk.
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Another economist, Lou Crandall at Wrightson ICAP, said much the same: “in this political environment, you can’t be complacent about anything, and the debt limit is pretty high on the list of things that could prove disruptive for markets.” The uncertainty isn’t just about whether the U.S. defaults, but how soon it could happen. Right now, it looks like action will need to be taken by late summer or fall of next year, but it could be sooner with a GOP takeover. “The aftermath of the midterm election could upset a lot of assumptions,” Crandall said.
It would sure be helpful if these people were a little more straightforward about the fact that Republicans are economic terrorists. It would also be helpful if reporters, you know, reported it that way. That said, kudos to the team at Bloomberg who initially broke this story and are continuing with this report. Most of the traditional media has moved on.
Perhaps those economists could start putting in a few calls to leading Democrats to tell them that it would be a good idea to take care of the debt ceiling during the lame-duck session. Because at the moment they’re being awfully blasé about this threat.
From President Joe Biden’s knee-jerk response to a question about eliminating the debt ceiling, saying that would be “irresponsible” to do away with it, to Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA) suggesting to Bloomberg News that there isn’t any possible way they could make room for it in the lame duck that is “probably a bridge too far.”
The most responsible thing Democrats could do right now is to take the debt ceiling away from the GOP—even if they manage to hold on to the House and Senate in this election. There’s no good reason for it. It was created in 1917 as an accounting tool for financing World War I, allowing Congress to pass funding for the war effort with fewer votes.
It’s not in the Constitution, it’s not required, and it’s dangerous to leave lying around where Republicans can get their hands on it. Making sure that it can’t be used again by Republicans to create chaos is what any responsible adult would do.
Which is also a pretty good argument for keeping the House out of Republican hands. Help do that, with your $10 to our Daily Kos-endorsed candidates.
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Abortion has been the number one topic for campaign ads this year, so we're talking with veteran ad maker Kelly Grace Gibson, the founder of the women-led Stronger Than Comms, about how Democrats are pressing their advantage on this episode of The Downballot. Gibson walks us through the nuts and bolts of how ads actually get made; how Democrats have shown unusual message discipline on abortion while simultaneously tailoring their messages to different audiences; and why she has hope for some progressive candidates and ballot measures even in difficult states.