The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Cara Zelaya, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
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Leading Off
● PA-Sen: The World Series always gives campaigns and their allies the chance to advertise to an unusually large live audience just before Election Day, which is why both parties are paying top dollar to make sure their messages get out to fans of the Philadelphia Phillies ahead of the Keystone State's Senate race.
The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that, while the Senate Majority PAC recently paid $700 to air a spot on Philadelphia's Fox29 during the 6 o'clock news, the same group shelled out $100,000 for just one commercial in Friday's Game 1 against the Houston Astros. Axios adds that SMP's Republican rivals at the Senate Leadership Fund, meanwhile, have dropped $700,000 for a seven-game advertising package.
These kinds of prices are prohibitively expensive even for some major candidates, but the deep-pocketed SMP and SLF have good reason to splurge. The World Series not only commands a huge audience, but because viewers are much more likely to watch major sporting events live compared to most other TV programs, they're less apt to record them and fast-forward through the ads.
And while the games will attract plenty of eyeballs nationally, local interest will be disproportionately high this year in the Philadelphia and Houston areas as the Phillies and Astros go head-to-head for the championship. National groups have largely avoided spending huge amounts in Texas, where GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is the frontrunner against Democrat Beto O'Rourke, but both parties are continuing to pour money into Pennsylvania's tight Senate battle.
So, what messages can baseball fans in the Philadelphia market, which is home to just over 40% of the commonwealth's residents, expect to see? SMP is using footage from Tuesday's candidate debate, during which Republican Mehmet Oz said of abortion, "I want women, doctors, local political leaders letting the democracy that's always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves." SMP's narrator ties Oz to the GOP's gubernatorial nominee, Doug Mastriano, who is running well behind Oz in the polls, arguing, "Oz thinks abortion decisions belong to politicians, like Doug Mastriano, who could ban abortion with no exceptions for rape or incest."
SLF, meanwhile, alludes to Democrat John Fetterman's May stroke without outright mentioning it in a spot ostensibly about fracking. Its ad begins with a 2018 video in which Fetterman declares he's always opposed fracking before the narrator jumps in, "Now, Fetterman appears confused about his own extreme positions." The spot then plays a long clip of Fetterman haltingly saying, "I do support fracking … I support fracking, and I stand, and I do support fracking." The narrator jumps back in by calling Fetterman "extreme, confused" as on-screen text displays a tweet from Time Magazine's Charlotte Alter calling the Democrat's debate performance "much much worse than I expected."
Baseball fans, though, aren't the only sports enthusiasts who can expect a dose of political messaging. Politico's Jessica Piper tweeted Wednesday that SMP had paid $100,000 to air a single ad during Sunday's highly anticipated NFL game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers, a matchup that will attract the attention of western Pennsylvania viewers who may not care much about the Phillies.
Fetterman, who previously served as mayor of Braddock, a community near Pittsburgh, is airing a commercial where Steelers legend Franco Harris tells the audience, "It's been a while since we had a senator from Western PA, and those years haven't been great." That senator, who goes unnamed, was the notorious Rick Santorum, who lost to Scranton's Bob Casey in 2006 and whom, we are quite certain, absolutely zero Democrats are nostalgic for. (Incidentally, Harris' former teammate, Lynn Swann, badly lost that year's race for governor to Democrat Ed Rendell; we have yet to see Swann in any 2022 campaign ads.)
Harris continues by extolling Fetterman as a western Pennsylvanian who's "been fighting here for 20 years." He adds, "Washington sees us as rust, John sees steel. John will fight to make more stuff here, cut taxes for working people, and make sure no one forgets our home." About 20% of the state's residents live in the Pittsburgh market, though the campaign may also be airing this spot in nearby smaller markets as well.
Pennsylvania is by no means the only state where both parties will be throwing down serious amounts to attract NFL fans. Brian Bakst of Minnesota Public Radio relays that it'll cost $60,000 to run a single 30-second ad during the Minnesota Vikings-Washington Commanders contest that will take place two days before Election Day. "Deep-pocketed outside groups are ponying up," says Bakst, "but most big-name candidates are opting for more affordable pre-and-post-game airings."
Senate
● AZ-Sen: The GOP firm Medium Buying says that the conservative Club for Growth has booked $5.6 million in TV and radio time for the rest of the campaign, though it's not clear if this includes the $2.5 million it reported spending on Tuesday. NBC, meanwhile, says Senate Majority PAC is reserving another $750,000 to help Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly.
● NH-Sen: The Heritage Foundation's Sentinel Action Fund has announced that it has reserved $1 million for the final week of the campaign to help Republican Don Bolduc, a move that comes a week after his ostensible allies at the Senate Leadership Fund canceled its entire remaining $5.6 million in bookings. Bolduc over the last few days has gotten a total $1 million in outside support from Our American Century and Restoration PAC, while the NRSC is spending that same amount on a hybrid ad with him.
● Polls:
CO-Sen: co/efficient (R): Michael Bennet (D-inc): 50, Joe O'Dea (R): 34
NH-Sen: co/efficient (R) for the New Hampshire Journal: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 45, Don Bolduc (R): 45, Jeff Kauffman (L): 3
PA-Sen: Wick Insights (R): Mehmet Oz (R): 48, John Fetterman (D): 46 (Mid-Oct.: 49-45 Oz)
PA-Sen: co/efficient (R): Oz (R): 48, Fetterman (D): 45
CO-Sen: While co/efficient’s polls often give GOP candidates some of their best results, this is the largest margin that anyone has ever found for Bennet.
Governors
● AZ-Gov, AZ-SoS: Defeated Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney is starring in a $500,000 ad campaign from her super PAC, Great Task PAC, where she implores viewers to reject election deniers Kari Lake and Mark Finchem. The spot uses footage of the GOP congresswoman's recent remarks at the McCain Institute where she said, "I don't know that I have ever voted for a Democrat, but if I lived in Arizona, I absolutely would."
Cheney goes on to declare that Lake and Finchem "have said that they will only honor the results of an election if they agree with it." She closes, "If you care about the survival of our republic, we cannot give people power who will not honor elections. We must have elected officials who honor that responsibility."
● Polls:
MA-Gov: YouGov for UMass Amherst and WCVB: Maura Healey (D): 61, Geoff Diehl (R): 33
MI-Gov: Cygnal (R): Gretchen Whitmer (D-inc): 51, Tudor Dixon (R): 44 (Late Oct.: 50-44 Whitmer)
NH-Gov: co/efficient (R) for the New Hampshire Journal: Chris Sununu (R-inc): 52, Tom Sherman (D): 34
NY-Gov: Slingshot Strategies (D): Kathy Hochul (D-inc): 48, Lee Zeldin (R): 42
PA-Gov: Wick Insights (R): Josh Shapiro (D): 49, Doug Mastriano (R): 43 (Mid-Oct.: 49-46 Shapiro)
PA-Gov: co/efficient (R): Shapiro (D): 51, Mastriano (R): 41
House
● AK-AL: Sarah Palin is only now going up with her first TV spot since her defeat in the August special election, and surprisingly, it's a positive commercial focused on her time as governor more than a decade ago. The narrator praises her for securing a "$1,200 rebate and dividend" in 2008, and compares her to the late Rep. Don Young. Far less surprisingly, the ad leaves out how Palin that same year backed her then-lieutenant governor, Sean Parnell, in an almost-successful GOP primary bid against Young.
Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola, meanwhile, is running her own commercial where Young's daughters declare she'll carry on his legacy.
● WA-03: House Majority PAC has launched a late $322,000 buy against election denier Joe Kent, which makes this the first major outside spending from anyone since Kent dispatched his fellow Republican, incumbent Jaime Herrera Beutler, in the August top-two primary. Trump would have carried this southwestern Washington seat 51-47.
HMP’s narrator promotes Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez as “an independent voice to fix our economy” before excoriating Kent as “a far-right extremist.” After the ad plays a clip of Kent saying, “I would move to have a national ban on abortions,” the narrator returns, “Kent treats the Jan. 6 rioters as heroes, even after police officers died.”
● House Majority PAC: NBC reports that House Majority PAC has added another $1.2 million to its buy in Oregon’s newly created 6th District, while it’s throwing another $1 million to help Democratic incumbent Vicente González beat GOP colleague Mayra Flores in Texas’ 34th.
● Polls:
KS-03: Siena College for the New York Times: Sharice Davids (D-inc): 55, Amanda Adkins (R): 41
MI-10: Target Insyght (D) for Carl Marlinga: Carl Marlinga (D): 44, John James (R): 42 (Aug.: 47-45 Marlinga)
NH-01: co/efficient (R) for the New Hampshire Journal: Chris Pappas (D-inc): 48, Karoline Leavitt (R): 44
NH-02: co/efficient (R) for the New Hampshire Journal: Bob Burns (R): 44, Annie Kuster (D-inc): 43
NM-02: Siena College for the New York Times: Gabe Vasquez (D): 48, Yvette Herrell (R-inc): 47
NV-01: Siena College for the New York Times: Dina Titus (D-inc): 47, Mark Robertson (R): 47
PA-08: Siena College for the New York Times: Matt Cartwright (D-inc): 49, Jim Bognet (R): 42
KS-03: This is the first poll we’ve seen of this expensive rematch in months, but both parties are very much behaving like they believe things are far closer. Davids defeated Adkins 54-44 in 2020, but the new GOP gerrymander slashed Biden’s margin of victory from 54-44 to just 51-47.
MI-10: An early October media survey from the Glengariff Group gave James a 44-36 advantage. Major Democratic outraise groups have bypassed this contest, though the Congressional Leadership Fund has spent a serious amount.
NH-01, NH-02: It would be a big surprise if Pappas outperformed Kuster in his more competitive seat: Biden would have won Pappas’ 1st District 52-46, while he would have taken Kuster’s 2nd 54-45. Neither party is acting like they think Kuster is vulnerable either: While the 1st District is one of the more expensive House races in the nation, there has been no serious outside spending in the 2nd since the GOP primary.
NV-01, NM-02, PA-08: These are the first polls we’ve seen from any of these three races in at least a month.
Attorneys General and Secretaries of State
● MI-AG, MI-SoS: The GOP firm Cygnal is out with its newest tracking poll:
MI-AG: Dana Nessel (D-inc): 47, Matthew DePerno (R): 41 (Late Oct.: 45-43 Nessel)
MI-SoS: Jocelyn Benson (D-inc): 50, Kristina Karamo (R): 39 (Late Oct.: 48-41 Benson)
Ad Roundup