Republicans never expected to be playing defense in Ohio. But here we are

Daily Kos Staff

Friday October 07, 2022 · 1:57 PM PDT

2022/10/07 · 13:57

YOUNGSTOWN, OH - SEPTEMBER 17: Ohio Republican Senate Candidate JD Vance enters the stage at a Save America Rally at the Covelli Centre on September 17, 2022 in Youngstown, Ohio. Republican Senate Candidate JD Vance and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) will be speaking to supporters along with former President Trump. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

It's Ohio, folks. Donald Trump won the state by about 8 points in both 2020 and 2016—a thumping. Even after Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance originally won the GOP nomination for U.S. Senate in August with just 32% of the vote, Republicans weren't exactly panicking.

Then Vance seemed to vanish from the face of the earth, while posting what can only be described as pathetic fundraising numbers. In fact, through June, Democratic senatorial nominee Rep. Tim Ryan raised seven times as much money as Vance raised through August.

Ryan's campaign reported raising $21.5 million through June, with $18 million spent and $3.6 million cash on hand
Vance's campaign reported $3.6 million in contributions through August, with $3 million spent and $630,000 cash on hand.

Cue the GOP cavalry. A McConnell-aligned super PAC made a massive $28 million commitment to playing defense in Ohio after bagging efforts to play offense in Arizona, where MAGA Republican Blake Masters is struggling mightily.

But now even Donald Trump—who helped saddle Senate Republicans with Vance, Masters, and puppy killer Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania—is coughing up at least some cash to help triage Vance's campaign. According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate, Ryan is edging out Vance by 1.6 points—meaning it could go either way at this point.

Make America Great Again Inc., Trump's new super PAC, is making its foray into the midterms with $2.1 million in ad buys—$1.3 million of it going to boost Vance while the remaining $770,000 is being directed at helping Oz. (MAGA Inc. has also committed $127,000 in Nevada and over $1 million in Arizona, according to AdImpact.)

On Wednesday, Don Jr. visited the Buckeye State in an attempt to shore up support for Vance.

In recent weeks, a narrative has taken hold in mainstream media that Republicans are gaining momentum, particularly in the Senate. It's true that several races have tightened. But with the key exception of Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada, all of that tightening is taking place in seats where the GOP is playing defense.

Republicans never expected Ohio to be draining upwards of $30 million from their efforts elsewhere. In fact, in more bullish times, back in April, here was how McConnell's PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, originally allocated its resources.

Georgia (offense): $37 million
North Carolina (defense): $27 million
Pennsylvania (defense): $24 million
Nevada (offense): $15 million
Wisconsin (defense): $15 million
Arizona (offense): $14 million
Alaska (defense): $7.4 million

Playing defense in Ohio wasn't even on that list. Now playing offense in Arizona has dropped off. Republicans’ best pickup opportunity in Georgia is nothing short of a shitshow—one they could still win, but it's certainly not going the way they want. And for all the hype about Pennsylvania tightening, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman is still more than 6 points ahead of Oz in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate.

In the meantime, Republicans are holding their breath in Ohio—Ohio, folks.

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Republicans never expected to be playing defense in Ohio. But here we are

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