New polling released this week finds that likely voters across five battleground states overwhelmingly back a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, and are more likely to support a candidate who favors pro-immigrant policy.
The survey, conducted by Hart Research Associates and released by the National Immigrant Justice Fund, found that 73% of voters across Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin support legalization if conditions like background checks are met. As the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program is under threat due to GOP litigation, respondents also said they’d be more likely to support a candidate who favors passing a law to protect young immigrants.
“Ahead of the midterms, this is a pivotal time for candidates to embrace pro-immigrant policy solutions and reject divisive anti-immigrant rhetoric,” said Bri Gillis, vice president of political strategy at the NILC Immigrant Justice Fund. “The data is clear. Being pro-immigrant is good for the country and it’s good politics.”
RELATED STORY: As elected Republicans continue effort to kill DACA, most Americans support continuing program
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“An enormous 73% majority of battleground voters say that undocumented immigrants now living in the U.S. should have a way to earn legal status and be provided a path to citizenship,” polling results said. “Just 23% believe that undocumented immigrants should all be deported.” Support young immigrants commonly known as Dreamers is slightly higher, with 74% of respondents saying they’d vote for a candidate who supports legislation permanently protecting them.
Despite President Biden declaring that the “pandemic is over,” his administration has widely expanded use of the debunked, Stephen Miller policy that has used the virus as an excuse to quickly expel asylum-seekers in violation of their rights. But likely voters in battleground states “say that they would prefer a candidate who favors allowing people to legally request asylum at the southern border” by a nearly 40 point margin.
“Independents prefer the pro-asylum candidate by a remarkable 44-point margin,” 67% to 23%, the polling said. “Biden voters almost universally support allowing asylum requests (86% to 10%), while Trump voters are actually divided on this issue (45% yes, 44% no).”
There was also encouraging news around a number of U.S. Senate races that will be pivotal in determining control of the chamber. The polling found that Democratic candidates lead in four of five races, with Arizona’s Mark Kelly holding the largest lead, over right-wing challenger and Peter Thiel-puppet Blake Masters, at four points. In Georgia, Rafael Warnock leads one-man abortion provider Hershel Walker by three points. In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman leads long-time New Jersey resident and diet pill pusher Mehmet Oz by two points.
The race is much closer in Nevada, where Catherine Cortez Masto leads Big Lie-pusher Adam Laxalt by just one point. Polling conducted by Univision has indicated that her overwhelming support among Latino voters could again push her to victory. Meanwhile, National Immigrant Justice Fund’s polling finds Mandela Barnes trailing another Big Lie-pusher, Ron Johnson, by two points.
Recent polling conducted by Data for Progress shows that as elected Republicans led by corrupt Texas attorney general Ken Paxton are seeking to use the courts to deport hundreds of thousands of young immigrants, most voters support continuing DACA by a nearly 30-point margin, 58%-31%. By a more than 30 point margin, respondents also support legalization for young immigrants protected by the popular and successful policy.
“The results show that voters headed to the ballot box overwhelmingly want to elect candidates who support pro-immigrant policies,” Gillis said in a release. “Democrats must seize on this opportunity to energize voters by making forward progress on real solutions that will impact millions of immigrants, their loved ones, and our communities.”
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How should we be reading the 2022 polls, in light of shifting margins and past misses? In this episode of The Downballot, Public Policy Polling's Tom Jensen joins us to explain how his firm weights polls to reflect the likely electorate; why Democratic leads in most surveys this year should be treated as smaller than they appear because undecided voters lean heavily anti-Biden; and the surprisingly potent impact abortion has had on moving the needle with voters despite our deep polarization.
