UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 7:17:37 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Reports that Chornobaivka has been liberated. That would put Ukrainian forces MUCH closer to the city than any of the videos we’ve been seeing all day — but then, sources have been indicating these videos are 24-48 hours old. If Chornobaivka has been liberated, then yes, the city is next.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 5:36:57 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
You know how some earlier reports indicated Ukraine has been on the move for 2+days and liberation videos weren’t released until today because Ukraine is still protecting operational security? There are some reports that this is continuing, and that Ukraine has positions much closer to Kherson than we are now seeing.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 5:06:50 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Finally hearing that Ukrainian forces have entered Soldatske, directly west of Kyselivka. That was one of the last places along the line where Russian forces had been reported present. I don’t know if they left or surrendered. I suspect there are going to be a lot of new Russian POWs today.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 4:52:23 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Advancing Ukrainian forces have reportedly caught up to retreating Russian forces along the highway south of Snihurivka between Barativka and Oleksandrivka. No word of any combat at this point.
Hard to tell if this is just Russian forces still trying to clear out, of if they’re attempting to set up defenses.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 3:39:07 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Officials in Mykolaiv are reporting that the entire Mykolaiv oblast has been liberated. That would be everything above that faint blue line that cuts back and forth on the map below, all the way down to Oleksandrivka in the middle. But I’m going to wait for individual towns to report in. It’s more fun that way.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 3:30:11 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Just going to put this up there. No point in trying to keep up the idea of a northern and southern front as everything is melting together as the Russian occupied region of Kherson west of the river dissolves.
A picture of Russia in flight.
Expect another update later. The locations are rolling in faster than I can update. It’s exactly the best of all possible outcomes we hoped for yesterday. Still no news of Ukrainian forces bumping up against a new Russian line, but that could happen soon — if there is a new Russian line.
UPDATE: Thursday, Nov 10, 2022 · 3:24:19 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Mylove is reported to be liberated. For completely selfish reasons I can’t tell you have nice it will be to have the front line past this point. because it’s impossible to search for the name of this town in either Twitter or Telegram without getting … other things.
With the sunrise in Ukraine, the images and videos started to appear, and all the best news of Wednesday was confirmed. The fortress town of Snihurivka, which has long guarded any access to the city of Kherson from the northwest and had resisted months of assaults, has been totally liberated.
And that’s just one part of the larger retreat that appears to be going on across the region. After several false starts and false claims, this Russian withdrawal is the real deal. On the northern border, Ukraine has reportedly liberated Piatykhatky, Sadok, Bezvodne, Ishchenka, and Bruskynske. That last one has long been a Russian strongpoint, fortified after Ukraine first established a bridgehead across the Inhulets River south of Davydiv Brid over three months ago. Now it looks like this.
In that Bruskynske video, one of the Ukrainian troops handily holds up his iPhone, showing that the town was actually liberated early on Wednesday afternoon. By now it’s unclear just how far Ukrainian forces may have advanced, or where they’ve run into resistance. However, there are reports that Russian forces have not left some areas, which may give an idea of where Russia is attempting to hold a fallback position as it withdraws toward the crossing at Kherson and Nova Kakhovka.
Confirmed areas liberated by Ukraine as of Thursday morning. Open image in another tab for a closer look.
That loop reaching up in the middle of this area represents a zone in which locals have reported that Russian forces are still present. Best guess as to why it may be is that Russia is trying to guard the highway intersection west of Stepne to prevent a rapid advance by Ukraine to Beryslav. Something similar is going on along the Dnipro, where Russia also appears to be guarding that highway.
However, other videos on Thursday morning show Ukrainian forces advancing rapidly down highways littered with abandoned Russian vehicles. So this tactic may not be holding. Stay tuned through the day to see if these areas also begin to appear on the list of liberated locations.
But as big as what’s happening north of Beryslav may be, there’s another liberation to report west of Kherson city that may be as big, or bigger, than anything else so far.
Confirmed areas liberated by Ukraine as of Thursday morning. Open image in another tab for a closer look.
Though I’ve yet to see videos of Ukrainian forces walking through Kyselivka, enough reliable sources have reported this now that I’m considering it confirmed. Not only was this another fortified position that’s been fought over for months (Ukraine actually managed to free it at one point only to have Russia surge back), Kyselivka is only 20 kilometers from Kherson, right down a major highway.
Previously, Russian forces had taken steps to harden areas around Chornobaivka to safeguard the approach to Kherson. That may still be the case. With the liberation of Pravdyne, which was confirmed on Wednesday, today will also be a day to watch for additional reports and what they reveal about Ukraine’s approach to the city itself.
Meanwhile in Kherson city, Russian forces have stopped any attempt to evacuate civilians. Why? Because of a reported “lack of interest.” In other words, with liberation on their doorstep and the quislings already gone, no one in Kherson wants to leave.
They want to be there to welcome the Ukrainian troops, as they welcome Kherson home.
Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week's episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday's extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and "soft" Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).
