I don’t know if I’m bungling the math here or since they’ve already announced the runoff it doesn’t matter, but on a lark I went and looked at the current counts in the Georgia Senate race just now.
Here’s a link to the NBC current counts.
One thing immediately stuck out. Warnock’s lead as expected has continued to grow, but… he’s also pushed up to 49.6% of the vote. ALL of the remaining vote appear to be coming from the darkest blue areas of the state (touch/point at the counties around Atlanta and Columbus to see percentages). According to that webpage they expect there are about 44K more votes yet to be counted. Now by my estimate if Warnock takes about 36K (82%) of them he’d push past 50% and win outright before the runoff. 82% is a big number, but given the areas those votes are coming from it’s not impossible to see it happening.
Obviously if there are more than 44K votes to count it gets even easier. Based on the percentages from the counties around Atlanta and Columbus, there might be a lot more. depending on if the percentages listed are for districts/precincts or for raw vote count. If it’s raw vote count then there might be as many as 80K more votes to count. if that’s the case Warnock only needs 68% of the remaining votes ~ 54100 to push him over 50%.
I am not an expert and am just looking at the numbers. Can someone weigh in and let me know where I’m being goofy or is it all just a lost cause because they’ve already announced the runoff?
I can picture the angst and the MAGAt heads exploding if Warnock won outright and they had to cancel the runoff.