Let me start with my premise: Chief Justice John Roberts is an unprincipled right-wing hack whose goal is to enable permanent minority rule for the Republican Party and the oligarchs and theocrats who run it.
In Shelby, Roberts and the rest of his right-wing cronies gutted the Voting Rights Act and have voted in favor of Republican Congressional maps in almost every case that has come before them. In Citizens United, he and his right-wing cronies allowed the unlimited spending of dark corporate money that hugely benefits Republican candidates.
Despite this, Roberts has cultivated an undeserved reputation as a reasonable jurist. I believe this is primarily because of two decisions (and his temperament): his vote to uphold the Affordable Care Act (though damaging it) and his vote to uphold Roe v. Wade (though not completely).
I argue that Roberts’ votes in both those cases were politically calculated to help Republicans. I don’t believe for a minute that Roberts thought Obamacare was something he wanted to vote for, but he knew that if it was overturned, it would hurt the Republicans politically. The ruling was issued about four months before the 2012 election and it would have put Romney and other Republicans on the defensive about what they would do about healthcare. Also, it would have invited the Democrats to argue that the court was so right-wing, it needed to be expanded.
Again, Roberts is a political hack, but one who plays the long game unlike his pals Alito, Thomas, et al.
This leads me to Dobbs. Roberts clearly believes that Roe v. Wade was wrongly decided and that he is against women’s autonomy and for forced birth. For God’s sake (joke intended), his wife, Jane, was deeply involved in the anti-abortion movement. He just wanted to whittle away at women’s rights, not send a shock wave through the system because he knew that it would be a disaster politically. I’m sure that is the argument he made to his fellow “conservative” justices. But Thomas, Alito, Barrett, Gorsuch and Kavanaugh are such theocrats, they couldn’t wait anymore. I knew that once Roe v. Wade was overturned, Democrats would have a good midterm.
So did Roberts. Again, I’m sure he tried to warn his colleagues but they wouldn’t listen.
P.S. Roberts can take comfort that by allowing the grotesque gerrymandering, he probably gave the House to the Republicans, and by allowing the unlimited dark money used to slander Democrats, he saved at least two or three Senate seats, particularly the loathsome Ron Johnson.