With the race in Nevada now declared from Cortez Masto, we know that the Dems will keep the Senate (which is just so monumental on so many levels!). And as a result, there has already been a fair amount of chatter about why a Warnock win (and thus getting to 51 seats) would be a much better outcome for Democrats. Committee assignments, for example, would no longer have any kind of power sharing agreement. It would just be straight Dem majorities in all committees. Further, it frees up VP Harris to travel more, because she won’t be required to break all legislative ties. And it’s more insurance in case a Senator dies or resigns (which happens often enough every cycle).
And one very common reason raised is that 51 Dems would allow them to ignore Manchin and/or Sinema. Which is a very good reason why a Warnock win will be important! But I want to expand on this idea to cover an angle that I haven’t seen discussed.
I have a theory about Sinema. A theory that Sinema may have revealed her “true” political temperament over the last two years, but she did so because she believed the political winds favored Republicans. After the 2020 election, Dems clung to a bare majority of 50 seats. With the history of the President’s party getting hammered in mid-term elections, it would have been very easy from Synema to believe that her fortunes actually lay with currying favor with Mitch McConnell rather than Chuck Schumer.
McConnell was going to take back control of the Senate in 2022. That part was obvious. Until the Dobbs decision this summer, there was very little to believe that Democrats could keep the Senate. And for the past two years, you can guess that McConnell was whispering sweet nothings in Sinema’s ear about the favorable treatment she would get once he regained power - if she would just make throw a few roadblocks in Biden’s agenda. She may have even believed that she could switch parties immediately after the election to remain a member of party in power.
I don’t know Sinema, so maybe this is all wrong. But I do know that power is a seductive thing, and if one is inclined toward thinking very highly of oneself (which seems to be a basic pre-requisite for anyone running for Senate), then it’s really not hard to believe that Sinema would act out of pure political calculation.
And now, that political calculation is smashed to bits. Democrats will keep the Senate, and may even expand their majority. Her ability to hog the spotlight on high profile legislation is basically gone. With 51 seats, Dems have a lot more breathing room to pass legislation without being blocked by her (or Manchin). McConnell may even lose his post as Senate Minority leader. If that happens, there is a good bet that whoever takes over won’t give any thought to Sinema, and will do nothing to curry her favor.
In that case, what is a political opportunist to do? Theoretically, she could team up with Manchin to continue their campaign to sabotage Democratic priorities. But to what end? Manchin can safely do so because he’s from West Virginia, so he doesn’t have to worry (much) about getting re-elected. Sinema does not have the same luck. Without an “inevitable” Republican majority to woo her, what does it benefit her to continue pissing off Democrats?
Suddenly, looking like a GOOD Democrat is a lot more attractive. She’s up for election in 2024, and has pissed off a LOT of the Democratic base in the past two years. She will probably want to do anything she can to get back in their good graces and reduce the call for a primary challenge. There is no possible advantage to trying to please Republicans at this point.
We know that Sinema has consistently cooperated with Dems on low profile stuff that doesn’t get media attention (hello judicial appointments!). So she can be a good team player. She just became an ass on the high profile stuff.
Without a political incentive to continue throwing up roadblocks, I think Sinema becomes a LOT more cooperative for the next two years. And if that happens, then Manchin is truly isolated. He becomes a minority of one, and Democrats can truly ignore him. They can suddenly start passing legislation that they couldn’t before — even stuff that Sinema used to oppose.
Of course, this won’t matter as much if Republicans take the House, and somehow manage to get their shit together by electing a Speaker (something that is definitely NOT to be taken for granted if they win only 219 seats!). But if Dems are able to keep the House? I think Dems will be position to pass a LOT of amazing legislation.
So yes, electing Warnock will have huge benefits to Democrats, even beyond simply having an extra vote. It will cause one of the most difficult Democrats in the Senate to sing a different tune, and start working much more closely with Biden and other Democrats. So Democrats will have a LOT more flexibility to pass legislation.
GOTV, and help Warnock win!