This started as a comment on another prediction diary this morning. I’ve done my best to parse out the current status plus integrate two good summaries today from Washington Post and Politico.
Most of the sources of uncalled races start with D at 203 or 204, and R at 211. (It should be D 204 because CA-34 is D vs D).
D 204 vs R 211 leaves 20 races to decide control of the House. Nine of those look very likely for the current leading candidate to win: six are D and three R.
Six D likely Holds:
AK-01 & ME-02 are the ranked choice races.
CA-6, CA-9, CA-21, and CO-8.
Three R likely holds:
CA-3, CA-45, and OR-5
That brings it to D 210, and R 214. Eleven close races left…
Five of those are leaning or expected to be D wins; just one is leaning to be an R win.
Five D leans:
AZ-1 — Maricopa County race (Phoenix). Biden won in ‘20, D Hodge currently has 0.8% lead.
CA-13 — the Dem candidate Gray trails by just 84 votes, and with almost 40% left to count, has good chances.
CA-47— D Katie Porter has a 2.8% lead
CA-49 — D Levin currently leads by 4.8%
OR-6— D Salinas has a 1.8% lead
One R lean:
NY-22— the R candidate B. Williams leads by 1.6% with 97% reported
That brings it to D 215 and R 215; the five seats remaining are rated more toss-up. Whichever party wins three of these controls the House:
The Five Toss-Ups to Control the House:
AZ-6. — D Engel trails by 0.4% with 87% counted. Biden won Pima County (includes Tucson) with 59% in 2020.
CA-22 — The D candidate Salas trails by 5% with 53% of the vote counted. The Washington Post analysts predict Salas will pull it out.
CA-27 — D Smith is down 10.8% now, but… quoting the WP today: “northern Los Angeles County seat is majority Hispanic and a big target for Democrats because Biden ran up double digits here in 2020. Smith is slightly favored.”
CA-41— The R candidate Calvert has a 1.4% lead over D Rollins. Trump won the district by 1 point; chances are Calvert holds his lead.
CO-03— Lauren Boebert has a 1100 vote lead, 0.4% over Adam Frisch. How awesome would it be if the Democrats win the House because Boebert lost her race!!??
I am utterly surprised to say this, but to me it looks like D 218 over R 217.