The Texas GOP asked lone star Republicans who they would vote for in 2024. DeSantis beat Trump by 11% — 43% to 33%. This result follows on the heels of other polls showing the younger, fitter psychopath with a lead over the aging champ.
The Club for Growth asked the same of Republicans in Iowa, New Hampshire, Georgia, and Florida. DeSantis led in all four states — with his lowest margin in Iowa (11%) and his highest in Georgia (16%). [Side note. Dear Mr. Trump, please, pretty please, campaign for Walker.]
Does this mean Trump is doomed? Absolutely not. These were internal polls by conservative groups with who knows what axes to grind. I do not doubt that MAGA groups could produce polls that show Trump lapping his as-yet-unannounced challenger - although they have not. And we do not even know if either of these men is running.
After the voters steamrolled the GOP’s red wave expectations by ignoring the GOP’s belief, “it’s the economy stupid” — the post mortems started. The heart of the matter was whether Trump was fatally wounded by his “it’s all about me” embrace of sycophants, toadies, and ass-kissers. Or whether this greasy escape artist would prove predictions of his political passing were pie-in-the-sky wishful thinking.
Nobody knows. Since 2015, American politics have been in terra incognita. Trump replaced the old rules with no rules. For every Republican who has said that the sun has set on Trump’s ambition, others pointed to his Teflon history of avoiding repercussions for his failures.
Perhaps we will get clarity tomorrow when Trump addresses the nation or whoever is watching on Newsmax? The pundits are divided over whether he will reveal his decision about running in 2024. Or whether, in true Trumpian style, he will use this announcement to announce there will be a spectacular announcement in a “few weeks, two months at most.”
I suspect he will not know his decision — if he does not punt — until minutes before he speaks. Ivanka has told him “no”. Mini-me has told him, “do it.” And Eric’s brain Lara, is a “yes,” unless her father-in-law says no, in which case she will claim that is what she meant all along.
In this maelstrom of misinformation and uniformed guesses, are there any facts prognosticators can use to give solidity to their wind? No. These polls prove little — although I would rather be in DeSantis’s jackboots.
So what is the armchair observer to think? I would suggest viewing it like this. It is halfway through the first quarter, and the score is 7-3 for DeSantis. One commentator suggests that Ron is off to a solid start. While the other claims that Don has a history of starting slow, but he always wins in the end. Both agree that the injury report suggests Don might have lost a step. However, he is a scrapper who can fight through the pain.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are praying that both men are left broken-boned, bloodied, and hobbled for the Super Bowl.