The map is changing tonight, but as of right now, according to AP’s predictions, Republicans lead in the House of Representatives by 214 to 204.
That counts as undecided CA-34, where two Democrats are battling it out. So that makes it 214-205.
Then there’s Alaska where new Congresswoman Peltola has 47.3% of the vote with 80% counted. She needs to gain 2.7 percentage points out of that last 20%, or to get the same amount of second-choice votes from voters who chose Sarah Palin or Nick Begich as their first choice in Alaska’s ranked-choice voting. If she gets either, she will repeat her surprise win in this summer’s special election.
Counting Rep. Peltola, I see Democrats having 5 “decent” leads (CA-6, CA-21, CA-49, AK-1, and ME-02), that is enough of a lead to likely hold up if the remaining votes are about even. Republicans have 3 “decent” leads (CA-27, CA-45, and NY-22). That projection takes us to 217-209. Republicans need just one more win if their decent leads hold up.
But where will they get it?
Republicans lead in 4 more races: CA-3, CA-22, CA-41, and CO-3 — Boebert’s seat.
California is following the pattern of Democrats gaining as more mail-in ballots are counted. For instance, Katie Porter in CA-47 was down by a few points late last week. Now she is up by 1.2 points with 20% remaining. I show the momentum favoring Democrats in all 3 California seats, plus CO-8 where they have a scant lead.
I hate to say it, but Boebert’s lead of 0.4 % has a good chance of holding up since its status is now “99% reporting”. This regrettable outcome would make it exactly 218 Republicans versus 217 Democrats.