Two polls taken after the much-ballyhooed debate between Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman suggest Fetterman’s demonstrated difficulty in overcoming the residual effects of a serious stroke had minimal—if any—impact on the Pennsylvania Senate race between the two candidates.
The polls, from the Monmouth University Polling Institute and Muhlenberg University appear to confirm what is generally true this election cycle: people’s preferences are locked in and barring some cataclysmic event won’t move much between now and Election Day.
As reported by Julia Terruso for the Philadelphia Inquirer:
The Monmouth poll released Wednesday found 48% of voters will either definitely or probably vote for Fetterman, compared to 44% who said they would definitely or probably back Oz. That’s well within the poll’s 4.5-point margin of error, meaning the poll shows the race is essentially tied.
In the Muhlenberg poll released Tuesday, 47% of likely voters said they were voting for Fetterman, and 47% said they were voting for Oz. Three percent said they’d vote for a third party candidate, and 2% were unsure. However, the poll had a significant margin of error: 6 percentage points. (In September, Fetterman led in Muhlenberg’s poll by 5 points. That poll also had a 6-point margin of error).
Fetterman continues to be viewed more favorably than Oz, who can’t seem to shake his New Jersey carpetbagger/snake oil salesman persona despite an influx of dark money ads casting him as some sort of “moderate.” As Monmouth pollster Patrick Murray, interviewed for the Inquirer article, explains, ”Oz is hanging in this race despite the fact that most Pennsylvania voters don’t really like him.” And while people have some doubts about Fetterman’s ability to serve out a six-year term in the U.S. Senate, those doubts appear to reflect more of a concern for his condition than a dismissal of his cognitive capacity. Most Democrats also appear to realize that if Oz wins the seat there is virtually no doubt that Democrats will lose control of the Senate.
The number of people who claim the debate caused them to reconsider their chosen candidate is quite small. As explained in the Monmouth poll summary:
In terms of direct impact, 3% of the Pennsylvania electorate – including 7% of independent voters – say they are reconsidering their candidate choice because of what they saw in last week’s debate. Another 22% say the debate raised serious concerns but did not cause them to reconsider their vote. Most voters either report no serious concerns from the debate (46%) or did not see or hear anything about the debate (27%).
Not mentioned in the polling but important nonetheless is the fact that PA gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro continues to lead his opponent, seditionist Doug Mastriano, by significant margins (54%-40% in the Muhlenberg U. poll). Although Pennsylvania no longer permits “straight ticket” balloting with the push of a single button, we can assume that it still occurs in many instances, with people simply reflexively pushing the little sensor buttons or filling in the little spaces for all of their party’s respective candidates. Assuming those numbers continue to hold, Fetterman may receive some benefit from voters’ enthusiasm for Shapiro and disgust with Mastriano.
The Pennsylvania Supreme Court added another problematic factor to Pennsylvania’s elections by ordering on Nov. 1 that all undated or incorrectly dated mail-in ballots must be segregated and not counted until legal challenges brought by the GOP are litigated. The Republican Party is fully aware that the majority of mail-in ballots are cast by Democrats and thus seek to disenfranchise as many mail-in voters as possible, on any technicalities they can conjure up, in the expectation that more Democratic votes will be ruled invalid. Unfortunately, the six justices on the PA Supreme Court are apparently deadlocked (3-3) on the “date” issue (specifically on whether refusing to count such votes violates federal civil rights law), so it is presently impossible to say whether those undated or incorrectly dated ballots will actually be counted.
As reported by Neil Vigdor for the New York Times, voters who are concerned they may have made an error on their ballots are urged to contact their county election boards.
We are reviewing, but the order underscores the importance of the state’s consistent guidance that voters should carefully follow all instructions on their mail ballot and double-check before returning it,” Amy Gulli, a spokeswoman for Ms. Chapman, said in an email on Tuesday night.
Voters who are concerned that they might have made an error on ballots before returning them should contact their county election board or the Pennsylvania Department of State, Ms. Gulli said.
The Inquirer article notes that because Republicans have been conditioned by lies from Donald Trump and their party’s leaders to distrust the mail-in process, more of them will be voting in person than Democrats. Because of this, Oz will almost certainly lead as the initial ballots from Election Day in-person voting are tallied, then his lead will gradually diminish as the mail-ins are counted. This “red mirage” effect will also provide Republicans a pretext to claim (nonexistent) fraud, much as Trump did in the 2020 election.
Because of these issues it seems probable that if the margin between Fetterman and Oz is particularly close, no final decision on the race—and possibly on the control of the U.S. Senate—will be forthcoming for several days after Nov. 8. All the more reason for Pennsylvania Democrats to Get. Out. The. Vote.