This Week In Congress (TWIC) — Time To Give Thanks
Before I get into the list of mid-term and other recent political events that I am (and we all should be) thankful for on this Thanksgiving holiday, let me start off with one of my disappointments.
The House - Actually, I have mixed feelings about the outcome of the mid-terms with respect to the House. While on one hand we did better than predicted by many of the “so called” political “experts” (which I will get to later under my thankful list), I am disappointed and somewhat fearful over the fact that we didn’t hold the House majority. Perhaps that goal was always out of reach thanks to recent Gerrymandering by Republicans, so I shouldn’t feel so down about it. But I worry about what is to come.
With respect to legislation, we have debt ceiling and/or Government shutdown extortion to deal with (unless we can get something passed during the lame duck session using Budget Reconciliation, and that’s looking bleak thanks to Manchin). While I doubt we will see a default on our debt or a Government shutdown, I fear the only way we avoid those events is by the Dems. caving to the GOP demands for spending and benefit cuts. I hope I'm wrong!
With respect to Committees, we can look forward to a series of joke Hearings and joke subpoenas to go with them. How much damage they will do to the Biden administration will probably all depend on how seriously the MSM covers them (minus Fox who will cover them 100%). I am not optimistic, but time will tell.
Since this is supposed to be an uplifting diary listing political successes that I (we) should be thankful for let’s get on with it. First up:
The House - Although we did not retain the majority in the House, we definitely overperformed beyond almost everyone’s expectations (except maybe Michael Moore’s), especially when measured against the predictions of some of the “quack” pundits who were estimating a 20 to 30 seat GOP majority. As of this writing the split is 220 R to 212 D with 3 seats still to be decided. They include CA-13 where Republican John Duarte currently leads Democrat Adam Gray by 592 votes with 99% counted (50.2% to 49.8%), CO-3 where Republican (Wacko) Lauren Boebert currently leads Democrat Adam Frisch by 554 votes with 99% counted (50.1% to 49.9%) and AK-AL where Democrat Mary Peltola currently leads the closest Republican, Sarah Palin by 59,879 votes with 99% counted (48.7% to 25.8%). We won’t know much about any of these 3 races for awhile. CO-3 is headed to an automatic recount because of Boebert’s very slim lead, and I would guess the same is true for CA-13. The Alaska race will be decided once all the ranked-choice votes are added in. I am pretty confident that we will win AK-AL when all is said and done since Peltola only needs just over 1.3% of the ranked choice vote to get over 50%. On that basis, the best we can do if we somehow win the other two is a 220 R to 215 D split, and the worst we can do if we lose the other two is a 222 R to 213 split. So what’s there to be thankful for?
UPDATE: I just learned that Mary Peltola won the AK-AL seat, so my above prediction is now fact.
In general, no matter how you slice it, the GOP has an extremely thin majority with a Caucus that is highly fractured with several Republicans who don’t play well with others in their own dysfunctional family, and I am thankful for that.
The first ramification from this tight split will be the election of Speaker come January 3, 2023. The front runner Kevin McCarthy can only afford to lose between 4 GOP votes and 2 GOP votes to secure the needed 218 votes needed to win the title of Speaker, depending on how the CA-13 and CO-3 races pan out. At last count there are at least 3 House Republicans who “say” (taken with a sizeable grain of salt) they will vote against McCarthy. So as long as no one in the Democratic Caucus helps him, and I pray there won’t be any, McCarthy has an uphill battle. Anyone who offers a prediction on how the Speaker election will turn out is blowing smoke. We won’t know until it happens, and any outcome is possible. But one thing’s for certain, if McCarthy or any Republican becomes Speaker, whether they will outlast the shelf life of a head of lettuce is highly questionable.
The second ramification is that the passage of any radical legislation with a slim margin and a highly fractured GOP Caucus will likely be impossible. There will almost certainly be enough “moderate” Republicans from purple Districts who together with all the Dems., will be able to block the radical GOP Agenda. Dems. may also be able to bring good legislation to the floor through the use of Discharge Petitions (needs 218 signatures) if they can get a few “moderate” Republicans to sign on. But that’s probably a long shot. Also, the tight margin means that Republicans will only hold a one seat majority on Committees. That means it will only take one “moderate” Republican to block Committee subpoenas with respect to all their FAKE investigations of the Biden administration.
The third and last ramification of the slim GOP majority is whether it will actually hold the majority over the whole two years. It will only take a few Republicans to quit (or pass away) for the Dems. to regain the majority and re-hold the Speaker’s election. Again, another long shot, but not impossible.
The Senate - Of course I am thankful that we retained control of the Senate, as we all are, by retaining our seats and flipping Pennsylvania (Special Thanks to John Fetterman). But looking ahead, which I’m allowed to do as a Time Lord, I am confident we will win the Georgia run-off and thereby obtain a 51 to 49 seat Senate majority, and I am thankful for that. Why am I so confident? Warnock was ahead in every reputable poll prior to the November election, he finished ahead of Walker by over 2 points in the election and leads by 4 points in the latest poll. Basically, if/when we get the vote out, we win.
So what do we get with a 51 seat majority?
For one thing we get a one seat majority on all Committees, which allows us to bring legislation and nominations directly to the Senate floor by a simple majority vote of the Dem. Committee members, cutting out the added step of having a floor vote just to discharge a piece of legislation or a nominee out of a Committee, saving weeks of time. This will mean Schumer will be able to accelerate the filling of Judicial vacancies which he set a record on last year. By the same token it will make it faster and easier to process a SCOTUS nominee should a vacancy occur. Also, having a Dem. majority on each Committee will give us subpoena power without out needing any Republican votes. Both Joan McCarter and
Also, a 51 seat majority will mean no longer having to kiss both Manchin’s and Sinema’s backside to get a majority vote on things like Budget Reconciliation Bills. Sure, together they can still block legislation, but we only have to flip one and not both of them to get things done. Small but important victory.
Both Joan McCarter and David Nir have posted excellent articles on this topic.
Governors and State Houses — In a year of a (wrongly) predicted “Red Wave” we were able to retain and in some cases flip Governorships and State Houses, and I am thankful for that. We retained/flipped Governors in swing States such as Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona (did I miss any). We also, flipped the Michigan State House to Blue and possibly also the Pennsylvania and New Hampshire State Houses. All far beyond pre-election day expectations!
Donald Trump 2024 Announcement — WHAT! Yes, I’m thankful for that. Why? Because it’s a win for our side either way you look at it as brilliantly pointed out in this Kerry Elevald Post. In a nut shell, if the GOP nominates him, there is no reason to believe that he won’t be an easy target to beat in 2024, with or without an indictment. If they don’t nominate him, his large segment of Die Hard MAGA supporters will either back him as an independent candidate or simply not vote for the GOP nominee, again giving us the win. So, yes, I’m thankful for a 2024 Trump run.
Lastly, the #1 Thing I am the MOST Thankful for is:
Democracies Win Over Fascism!
I am thankful that in almost every case, the majority of US voters chose democracy over fascism!
They did that by rejecting almost all of Trump’s MAGA Fascists, in Senate races, House races and Governor races. But most importantly, voters rejected Trump’s Secretary of State (SoS) candidates in all the swing States. MAGA SoS candidates who openly campaigned on the Trump’s Big Lie and overturning the will of their State’s voters in 2024 based on Big Lie #2. I am just so thankful that Democrats will control the vote counting in swing States in 2024, and who will insure that the will of the voters, whatever it will be, will prevail.
In the 2022 mid-terms, the Voters secured our democracy (for at least another 2 years) and we all should be thankful for that!
So before I go, let me leave you with a Thanksgiving Holiday Tradition for your entertainment. A little bit of Arlo Guthrie’s Alice’s Restaurant. ENJOY!