I started with a Senator all of those months ago, so it is fitting that I conclude this series with another Senator I like. He’s in a very close race for re-election in my second home state. This race will hinge on being able to turnout enough voters and keep the McCain Republicans onboard. In order to keep the Senate, we must do everything possible to help Mark Kelly keep his Arizona seat!
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Mark Kelly for AZ-SEN!
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Candidate Background
Sen. Mark Kelly has had a very rich life, and it is next to impossible to condense it down to three bullet points. I would read his biography on his campaign website for more information.
- He graduated from the Merchant Marine Academy with high honors, and then went to Naval Aviation school. He saw combat action in the Navy as a pilot during Desert Storm.
- He and his twin brother were both selected as astronauts for the Space Shuttle program at NASA. He has logged over 54 days in space, and even commanded the last mission for space shuttle Endeavour.
- His wife is the famous Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who was subject of an assassination attempt in late 2011. This stochastic terrorism has been going on longer than this year, and this is the proof of that.
Signature Issues
Sen. Mark Kelly is a moderate in the Senate caucus, but he isn’t an ass about it like Manchin or Sinema. That’s why he doesn’t draw the ire that those two tend to draw for their antics. He votes with Joe Biden’s agenda around 95% of the time, which is fairly good for a swing state senator.
In terms of DW Nominate, Sen. Kelly has a score of -0.177, which backs up his moderate voting record nicely. He is a swing vote in the Senate, being more liberal than 54% of his colleagues but also more moderate than 93% of the Democratic caucus. Only a couple of Senators are more moderate than he is.
Gun Safety: Given that his wife was the target of an assassination attempt, Kelly naturally is concerned about gun safety. But he cannot be too extreme, because Arizona is a gun loving state. He supported the gun safety bill after the Uvalde shooting, for example.
Transparency: Kelly would love to ban members of Congress from trading stocks, re-institute the safeguards in McCain-Feingold that protected us from a torrent of dark money, and more. He is concerned with accountability and transparency for every single member of Congress.
Health Care and Abortion: Kelly is a vote to protect the ACA, Medicare, and Social Security from the Rick Scott plan to devastate all three programs. He also is 100% pro-choice, and would work to codify Roe into law. He has worked to lower costs through the Inflation Reduction Act.
Elections History
Recent Elections —
2020 President: Joe Biden (D) 49.4%, TFG (R-inc) 49.1%
2020 Senate (special election): Mark Kelly (D) 51.2%, Martha McSally (R-inc) 48.8%
This seat used to be held by Sen. John McCain, who was a political hero of mine when I was a conservative in my youth. McCain never had any trouble with any of his elections to the US Senate, as Arizona during his time period was a rather conservative state. Yes, it went for Clinton once, but that was a fluke caused chiefly by Ross Perot more than anything. It is only recently that Arizona became competitive.
The first sign that Arizona was an emerging swing state happened in 2012, when the Senate race was unexpectedly close between Sen. Jeff Flake and Richard Carmona. Romney easily carried the state that year over Obama, but just like other states migrating left, a local race heralded a sea change. It was predicted that Arizona would be a swing state by the end of the decade.
In 2016, McCain romped in the Senate seat yet again, while Clinton contested Arizona against TFG. She pulled within a 48-45 margin, which was the closest a Democratic candidate had come in the state since the fluky Clinton win in the 1990s. It looked as though it were only a matter of time before Arizona would go for the Democratic Party.
2018 brought more hope, as the now reviled Sen. Kyrsten Sinema won a close election for the other Senate seat. But that was a blue wave election, and it remained to be seen how a more neutral environment would play out. McCain died in 2018, leading to a 2020 special election concurrent with the presidential election. The results made history, as both Biden and Kelly won!
Political Tour of the State
This state is all about two trends — winning Maricopa County and having the other Democratic counties cancel out the rest of the state. It took a LOT of moving parts to make a narrow win possible, which is why I am uneasy about the state this year. Will those parts work again?
Here's where races are won for us in the state of Arizona.
- Maricopa County: A combination of McCain Republicans, Hispanic voters, and new arrivals to the state narrowly flipped this county and thus the state. If we win Maricopa County, we should win the state. It isn’t as easy as it seems, as the city of Phoenix and inner suburbs are blue, but the more exurban portions of the county are deeply red.
- Pima County: The city of Tucson is another rich source of Democratic votes, but again it takes a coalition to win this county. There are Native Americans, Hispanic voters, new arrivals, and McCain Republicans to consider. Nothing is easy in this county, as outlying areas and the suburbs trend red. We need about 58% of the vote here to offset other areas of the state.
- Coconino County and the Reservations: The northern section of the state contains the critical votes of Flagstaff/Sedona and the Native American reservations. Both votes were supercharged in 2020, and Mark Kelly will have to rely on them yet again in order to win. We need to win Coconino County by about 61%, get 45% in Navajo County, and win 2:1 in Apache County.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we will lose Arizona.
- Mohave and Yavapai Counties: These are where the insurrectionists, cranks, retirees, and California conservative transplants live in Arizona. These two counties are a rich source of conservative votes, and they may be the reason Mark Kelly loses the race. He has to hold Blake Masters to 63% of the vote in Yavapai and 75% in Mohave, or he will have serious problems.
- Pinal and Gila Counties: These two counties in central Arizona are quite Republican, though Pinal County is growing and changing as commuters live in the middle of the two big metro areas. Mark Kelly needs to limit Blake Masters to 66% of the vote in Gila County and 58% of the vote in Pinal County to ensure a victory in the state overall.
- Southeastern Arizona: Graham, Greenlee, and Cochise Counties are all reliably Republican these days, although when the mining unions mattered they tended to vote Democratic (as the Pinto Democrats). Kelly will have to limit his losses in this section of the state, though some counties are sparsely populated.
Activism — Help How You Can!
Sen. Mark Kelly probably doesn’t need your donation at this point, unless there is a recount. Those get expensive and nasty quickly, so it may make sense to make one last small donation to his campaign. He raised an astounding $22.37 MILLION dollars in the 3rd quarter, but spent a mind boggling amount as well. That leaves him with $13.19 MILLION for the home stretch.
Blake Masters is an oddball propped up by Peter Thiel money, and he doesn’t seem to be able to raise any himself. He raised and self-funded $5.03 MILLION dollars in the 3rd quarter, and spent most of it already. That leaves him with $2.83 MILLION left over, which isn’t enough for the final stretch. Dark money and the NRSC are propping up his campaign right now.
DONATE TO SEN. MARK KELLY HERE
More importantly, there is still time to sign up to help in Arizona. Today is the day to do so, as we need to contact those last minute voters who still have mail-in ballots to turn them in at the appropriate place so that their vote may be counted. That takes an army of volunteers, especially in populous Maricopa and Pima Counties. But the Native Americans cannot be neglected either. Please sign up to help Mark Kelly if you live in Arizona. The race will be very tight and you make a difference.
VOLUNTEER FOR HIS CAMPAIGN HERE
In terms of social media, Mark Kelly has 493.4k followers on Twitter, which is actually down from earlier as the Twitter exodus has started. Below is a GOTV rally in Phoenix attended by Mark Kelly, Katie Hobbs, and Barack Obama!
He also has a great Facebook page, and even his Instagram page is humming along. Finally, he has a YouTube page filled with both campaign videos and his videos from space. It is one of the more active political YouTube feeds, so go ahead and check it out.
This race is a true tossup, just like the presidential race was in Arizona two years ago. This race could come down to a couple thousand votes, meaning there could even be a recount involved. Sadly, I am back in Michigan and I cannot help Sen. Mark Kelly through voting or volunteering, but I am still with him in spirit. If you can help at all tonight or tomorrow, I am humbly asking you to do so!
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Mark Kelly for AZ-SEN!
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