The main event on this year’s elections calendar is control of the United States Senate. With the chamber divided 50-50, the consequences of even a small gain or loss are quite large. Gain one net seat, and the Democrats are no longer dependent on Joe Manchin’s whims as the chamber’s decisive vote; pick up two and Kyrsten Sinema’s influence shrivels, too. But lose one seat, and, well, Joe Manchin is also pretty irrelevant, because the legislative agenda is going to be set by Mitch McConnell instead.
While there may be only a handful of true tossup races this year, the fact that the Senate is already balanced on a knife’s edge, and that those few key races seem to be truly up in the air based on current polls, means that the Senate is very much a tossup in the aggregate. It’s pretty unusual to head into Election Day with a sense that either party has about a 50% chance of winning a majority, but that’s more or less where we are right now.
In this preview of the battle for the Senate, we’re going to start with the five races that are the purest tossups: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire—all of which involve defending a Democratic incumbent—and the open seat in Pennsylvania, the Democrats’ best opportunity for a pickup. We’ll also look at 10 other races where one party has a more pronounced advantage but that are competitive and worth keeping a close eye on as election night (and the days after, most likely) unfold.
The easiest way to think about the “big five” races mentioned just above is that in order to retain control of the Senate, the Democrats have to retain control of any three of them—or in other words, wind up with a net switch of zero seats. So, for instance, they could pick up Pennsylvania while losing, say, Nevada, or perhaps they could lose Pennsylvania but hold Nevada. Either way, they’d remain in charge.
But they can’t lose both Pennsylvania and Nevada, unless they get a pickup in a more difficult race, like North Carolina or Wisconsin. But this sort of result is quite unlikely, since the outcomes of congressional elections tend to be related and not independent of each other. That is to say, if Democrats are losing both Pennsylvania and Nevada, say, such a scenario is more likely to also involve losing Georgia than it would be to include somehow winning North Carolina.
On top of all that, it’s unlikely we’ll know the final results on Tuesday night. In fact, we might not know for days, or maybe even weeks. For starters, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will not begin counting mail ballots until after polls close. That’s thanks to their Republican-controlled legislatures, which have prohibited any early counting, in part to perpetuate the illusion that Republican candidates are “leading” when people go to bed on Tuesday.
But the really big issue is that Georgia, uniquely among states, has runoffs for general elections where no candidate clears 50%—as we all well recall from the previous election cycle. If, once again, no one achieves a majority, the race will head to a Dec. 6 runoff. (Keep in mind that 2021’s runoff occurred in January; Georgia’s legislature subsequently shortened that period.) Since there’s a Libertarian on the ballot, as there was in 2020, it’s plausible that Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and his Republican challenger, Herschel Walker, may be in for another runoff with control of the Senate on the line once again.
You might be wondering, though, how we are classifying which races belong in this “big five” tier. First of all, these contests have the smallest margins in the polls right now, with spreads of 2 points or less. Using Wikipedia’s aggregate of the aggregators’ aggregates, as of Nov. 5, here’s the current state of each race:
Arizona: Mark Kelly (D-inc): 48, Blake Masters (R): 46
Georgia: Raphael Warnock (D-inc): 47, Herschel Walker (R): 47
Nevada: Adam Laxalt (R): 46, Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc): 45
New Hampshire: Maggie Hassan (D-inc): 48, Don Bolduc (R): 46
Pennsylvania: John Fetterman (D): 47, Mehmet Oz (R): 47
The Wikipedia aggregate of aggregates is a useful offering because it not only smooths out the irregularities of each individual poll, but also irregularities in each poll aggregator’s approach, in terms of what polls get used, what sort of weighting happens, and how polls fall out of the average over time. However, even then, the aggregate of aggregates is only as good as aggregators’ choices. For instance, both FiveThirtyEight and Real Clear Politics include pollsters whose results we do not report at Daily Kos Elections because they do not meet our quality control standards (most notably the GOP firms Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and McLaughlin, all of which are operated by election deniers).
It’s more than fair, though, to point out that the polls performed unusually poorly in 2020, especially on the Senate side. In fact, let’s go so far as to ask, what if you simply don’t think the public polls can be trusted? Then what?
There’s one more very clear and convincing piece of evidence that these are the races that you should be focusing on, and that’s the resources invested by the four big establishment independent expenditure groups that do much of the spending on the Senate races. These are, for Democrats, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) and its closely linked super PAC, the Senate Majority PAC (SMP); and for Republicans, the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) and its own tightly associated super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF).
While much of their decision-making is indeed informed by polling, it’s of a higher quality than much of what we see leaked publicly. But it’s by no means the only source these organizations rely on. They also have access to a wide variety of data sources we simply never get to see, ranging from focus groups to reports from door-knockers and much more. But above all else, while they’re certainly capable of making mistakes, they don’t take any chances and don’t engage in out-of-left-field “let’s try and make this race happen”-type spending.
With that in mind, here are the contests that they’ve collectively spent in, in order from the largest outlays to the smallest:
- Pennsylvania: $101 million (D: $51 mil, R: $50 mil)
- Georgia: $93 million (D: $50 mil, R: $43 mil)
- Nevada: $75 million (D: $46 mil, R: $29 mil)
- North Carolina: $57 million (D: $13 mil, R: $44 mil)
- Wisconsin: $57 million (D: $28 mil, R: $29 mil)
- Arizona: $48 million (D: $38 mil, R: $10 mil)
- New Hampshire: $37 million (D: $18 mil, R: $19 mil)
- Ohio: $32 million (D: $0, R: $32 mil)
- Alaska: $6 million (D: $0, R: $6 mil)
There are those same five races again, plus the Democrats’ two next-best pickup opportunities, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Only two other races have seen any spending from this quartet (apart from a late $25,000 SLF dropped in Illinois, of all places), and in both cases, it’s all been from the GOP: One is the Republican-held open seat in Ohio while the other is Alaska, a special case that we’ll discuss at the end of this article.
Having laid the groundwork, let’s take a further look at each of these nine races, as well as five others that could also prove to be pivotal.
The Big Five
ARIZONA
Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly picked this seat up in 2020, defeating rather hapless Republican appointee Martha McSally by a 51-49 margin against the backdrop of a narrow win by Joe Biden here in the presidential race. Since that was a special election to serve the final two years of John McCain’s term, Kelly faces the voters again this year, this time for a full six-year term, against businessman and Peter Thiel protege Blake Masters. The billionaire Thiel notably kept his distance from Masters after helping him win the primary, and SLF has also stayed away. But the swingy nature of Arizona—Biden’s victory was the first by a Democratic presidential nominee in decades—is keeping this one close.
GEORGIA
Few Democratic incumbents may be luckier than Sen. Raphael Warnock in terms of Republican candidate recruitment: Former football star Herschel Walker’s campaign has been a nonstop parade of incoherent pronouncements and embarrassing revelations. However, this race is an unfortunate example of the effect of widespread polarization and the nationalization of Senate races in the current era. Unlike even, say, a decade ago, when gaffes by Republicans Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock helped them lose in deep-red states, these days, no amount of embarrassment or incompetence can stop Republican voters from voting the party line when Senate control is up for grabs.
NEVADA
It may be a little surprising to see Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto emerge as perhaps the most endangered Democratic incumbent this year, when Nevada, while still very much a swing state, is a smidge bluer than Arizona or Georgia. There are two main reasons for that: One is that, while her Republican opponent Adam Laxalt is no moderate, dignified statesman (and, in fact, has dabbled in election denialism), he remains head-and-shoulders above the Republican standard-bearers in other close races. He’s held statewide office before, serving one term as attorney general, and is a more disciplined campaigner. The other factor is that, compared to Arizona and Georgia, Nevada—with a Democratic base that is mostly Latino, non-college-educated, and service workers—is generally at more risk of weaker Democratic turnout in midterms (most gravely seen in 2014).
NEW HAMPSHIRE
New Hampshire is a bit of a puzzle: Republicans not long ago appeared to triage retired Army Brig. Gen Don Bolduc, a Big Lie enthusiast they were not eager to see win the GOP nomination, with both the NRSC and SLF cutting millions in TV reservations in October. But then the NRSC returned with a late ad buy while other Republican groups showed up with some sizable spending of their own. Democrats, however, never treated Sen. Maggie Hassan as safe and never stopped running ads on her behalf. The Granite State, perhaps more than any other, frequently witnesses large vote swings from election to election, so even though Biden’s 7-point win in New Hampshire was considerably wider than his victories in any other state in this tier, it remains a tossup.
PENNSYLVANIA
The Keystone State has loomed large over all Senate races this year. For a period this summer, it looked like Democratic Lt. Governor John Fetterman was in the driver’s seat, putting up high single-digit leads in the polls and regularly pantsing TV personality Mehmet Oz on social media. Some in the media have blamed Fetterman’s stroke recovery and poor debate performance for Oz pulling back into a close race, but that’s really more of a natural tightening as undecided Republican voters gravitate back to their party when the chips are down. Fetterman’s margins over the summer were something of a mirage, thanks to outspending Oz (who’s closer to parity now) and Republican disharmony after a very nasty multi-way primary.
Five Further Democratic Pickup Opportunities
Now let’s take a look at five more races where the Democrats are on offense. However, they’re further back in the polls than in the main cluster of races, and there’s generally been less outside spending.
FLORIDA
Democrats got a strong recruit in Florida with Rep. Val Demings, who is running against Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, now seeking a third term. Democratic fortunes in the usually swingy Florida, however, don’t seem to be bouncing back this year after an underperformance in 2020. Neither party has found any evidence here to motivate any spending by the party committees or top super PACs, given the massive advertising cost of running ads throughout Florida, and Rubio currently has a 51-44 aggregate polling lead over Demings.
IOWA
This race piqued a lot of people’s interest when Selzer & Company—the one pollster that seems to really get Iowa—found Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley (running for an eighth term!) leading his Democratic opponent, retired Vice Admiral Michael Franken, by only a 46-43 margin in early October. But the most recent Selzer poll, taken just days ago, gave Grassley a more expected 53-41 advantage, similar to his overall 50-42 aggregate polling lead. As Democratic pollster Tom Jensen said of undecided voters who lean Republican, you can always count on them to do the wrong thing in the end.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina has an open-seat contest due to Republican Sen. Richard Burr’s retirement, and these sorts of races often give the other party the best opportunity for a pickup in swing states. Unfortunately, the nature of the midterm is limiting the Democrats’ opportunity here. Republican Rep. Ted Budd and his Democratic rival, former state Supreme Court chief justice Cheri Beasley, were neck and neck in polling for many months, which explains why there’s been a lot of outside spending here, but Budd has started to put a little distance on Beasley in the closing months; he currently sports a 49-45 aggregate polling lead. (Notably, while SMP spent here, the DSCC did not.)
OHIO
Ohio’s open-seat race had looked unusually promising over the summer, with Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan often beating his charisma-challenged Republican opponent, author J.D. Vance, in head-to-head polls. But as in Pennsylvania (where John Fetterman was sporting even larger leads), a lot of that had to do with Ryan dramatically outspending Vance on the airwaves and benefiting from higher name recognition, and also had to do with Vance suffering fallout from a divisive primary. Yet as we’ve seen elsewhere, previously undecided GOP voters ultimately came home, though SLF had to spend heavily to guide them back into the fold. Ohio is also a redder state at the presidential level than Pennsylvania or North Carolina, and Vance now holds a 48-45 aggregate polling lead.
WISCONSIN
Wisconsin is actually a very similar story, though with an unlikable Republican incumbent, Ron Johnson, in place of an unlikable primary winner. Democratic Lt. Governor Mandela Barnes took advantage of a spending advantage in the summer and led narrowly in a number of polls until several months ago, but Johnson, buoyed by both his own and outside spending (and some truly repellent ads), has seized the initiative here and now has a 48-45 aggregate polling lead.
Two Longer Shots for Republicans
There are two additional races where the Republicans are on the offense. GOP challengers are within single digits in both, but their odds are stiffer than in any of the “big five” contests.
COLORADO
Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet faces Republican businessman Joe O’Dea in a race that hasn’t drawn any spending from any of the four major groups. O’Dea is a bit of a rarity in that he’s trying to run an overtly moderate-sounding campaign, but Colorado, in the end, is probably too blue for O’Dea to close the gap. All the major groups have stayed out, and Bennet is sitting on a 51-42 aggregate polling lead.
WASHINGTON
Motivational speaker Tiffany Smiley has proved to be a surprisingly strong fundraiser in her bid to topple Democratic Sen. Patty Murray, allowing for an ad-intensive race by both sides here—though again without any spending from any of the four big outside groups. Probably the best reason for Murray to feel fairly confident here is that she already hit 52% in the state’s usually predictive top-two primary in August, where all candidates from all parties run on a single ballot and the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the general election. Collectively, Murray and several minor Democrats combined for 55% of the vote, while Smiley and the other Republicans took 41%. The polling hasn’t looked quite as favorable, though, as the incumbent enjoys a smaller 50-45 aggregate polling lead.
The Special Cases
Two unusual special cases also deserve some attention this year.
ALASKA
Alaska now uses a unique “top-four” primary combined with a ranked-choice general election, which new Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola used to her advantage in the recent special election here. Unlike in that contest, though, the Democratic candidate for Senate this year, retired teacher Pat Chesbro, is something of an afterthought; rather, the main challenge to Republican Sen. Lisa Murkowski is from her right, from fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka, a former state cabinet official endorsed by Donald Trump. In fact, that’s why this is one of the handful of races that has seen SLF spending, since Mitch McConnell is trying to protect an incumbent member of his caucus (against a probably less cooperative rival). Polling this kind of race is very difficult, but recent surveys show Murkowski emerging from the final round of the ranked-choice runoff with a considerable advantage.
UTAH
Finally, Utah features a very rare sort of race—and probably the best the Democrats could expect in this deep-red state—between Republican Sen. Mike Lee and former CIA agent Evan McMullin, who performed surprisingly well here as an independent alternative to Trump in 2016. While McMullin is a conservative never-Trumper more than anything else, he’s the de facto Democratic candidate here: The state party declined to field a candidate and endorsed him instead in the hopes of winning over moderate Republican voters. McMullin has promised to caucus with neither party, but Lee still holds a 47-38 aggregate polling lead.