UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 6:27:47 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Putting this up with the warning that we’ve had this kind of report before. However, there are dozens of reports coming in, many of them reportedly originating with Ukrainian forces and with locals remaining in towns and villages, that Russia is deserting northern Kherson area wholesale.
White cities represent locations reported abandoned.
On this map, the locations with a black-and-white marker represent locations that have been reported abandoned by Russian forces. Still waiting for verifications that Ukrainian troops have moved into these locations. If this is accurate, expect those verifications to come very quickly.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 3:38:54 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
This appears to be official. It is now appearing on Russian state media. Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu has ordered a withdrawal of all Russian forces from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson region.
Still, there is active fighting going on. Wait for word of actual cities and towns being liberated.
But get ready. Keep your fingers crossed. Be prepared for good news.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 3:01:01 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Ask for specific locations, and ye shall receive: Ukraine has reportedly liberated Kalynivske, a small town along the Inhulets River just a few kilometers north of Snihurivka. This leaves just the village of Bobrovyi Kut between Ukrainian forces pressing in from the north, and those pushing west into Snihurivka. Be prepared to hear the name of that village again soon.
UPDATE: Wednesday, Nov 9, 2022 · 2:51:51 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
As the update was being written this morning, news started to roll in that there is, in fact, fighting near Kyselivka (see map below) with Ukrainian forces reportedly pressing along the highway and Russian fighters concerned that they could be rapidly cut off and isolated.
Also, Kirill Stremousov, a strident anti-vax quisling who was appointed by Russia as the deputy governor of their occupation government in Kherson, has died. The official statement indicates that he died in a car crash. Take from this what you will.
Finally, a report from Russian Telegram sources that some Russian forces in Kherson Oblast have received an order to withdraw from the right bank, some have already crossed, and some have been told to hold the front until the rest can complete the escape. Some forces are also reported to be out of communication, which may reflect earlier reports that no one is in communication with Russian forces in Snihurivka. As with all claims that sound this good, keep a salt shaker handy — especially as we’re still not seeing named locations as liberated.
On Saturday, Russian sources report that they have lost all contact with their forces inside the town of Snihurivka, a location that has been, for months, a fortress town guarding access to the city of Kherson. There has been speculation that those forces have gone into deep shelters, or that they are maneuvering to new locations. What’s clear at this hour is that Ukrainian forces have completely surrounded Snihurivka and entered parts of the city, which presents another option for that Russian silence: There may be no more Russian presence in Snihurivka.
In addition to liberating some portion of Snihurivka (reportedly the northern end of the town), there are multiple reports of a large number of Russian forces and Russian vehicles being destroyed in the area over the last two days. However, it should be noted that the video reportedly showing a Russian convoy being destroyed while trying to escape the city—which was widely distributed on Friday, including by me—has actually proven to be from months earlier.
Right now, only one Russian Telegram channel is reporting that Ukraine has completely liberated Snihurivka. Other channels and sources on both sides have confirmed that Ukraine has entered the city and established a presence there, but have not claimed that Russian forces have been eliminated. It’s going to be some hours yet before the real status of Snihurivka, and of other points along the front lines in Kherson, are better understood. But what news we have is all good news. Russia’s position in Kherson really does seem to be rapidly eroding.
Kherson area. Open in another tab for a closer look.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is reportedly advancing south of that location following a night-long exceptionally heavy bombardment with artillery. That includes an attack located east of Pravdyne. Based on the location of fighting, there are several locations that may have already been liberated in this area, but there has been no official announcement. There has, so far, been no report of renewed fighting at Kyselivka.
On the northern line, there are reports indicating that Russian forces are fleeing from locations, running back toward Beryslav in hopes of passage across the Dnipro River. In the process, Russians have reportedly destroyed their own bases at various points as well as blowing up bridges across the Inhulets River and a whole series of small rivers and bays along the western side of the Dnipro to slow the advance of Ukrainian forces.
However, everything except the fact that Ukraine has entered Snihurivka—which has been confirmed by multiple sources and represents all on its own a huge change in the battle for Kherson—should be read with extreme caution. Those reports of Russians leaving positions on the north currently lack any kind of specificity, and they’ve not been followed by any images, or even reports, or Ukrainian forces entering Mylove, Bruskynske, and Sukhanove. (Though the bridge just north of Mylove is one of those reportedly destroyed on Friday night.)
Meanwhile, there are additional reports that Russian locations in and around the city of Kherson itself have been abandoned. Some of those reports have been accompanied with videos of abandoned checkpoints. At the very least, it’s clear that Russian forces have been redeployed to other locations. Those could be along the line to hold back pressure from Ukraine. Or they could be across the river. We don’t know, but you can bet that the Ukrainian military does.
There are even Russian sites claiming that Kherson “will be surrendered” on Sunday. However, these reports, like the reports of the line falling apart in the north, are likely reactions to the news that Ukraine has entered Snihurivka. Every sign of Ukrainian advance in the last month has immediately generated over-the-top claims that Kherson was going to be liberated in days, if not hours.
One of these days, hopefully one of these days very soon, those reports are going to be true. However, there is no confirmation that this is that day. Still, things are changing. To coin a phrase … stay tuned.
For now, I am leaving all the positions in the north unchanged. In the south, Ukraine has advanced into Snihurivka, which I am marking as still in dispute. Below that, Ukraine has advanced east of Pravdyne, but I’m leaving that town and neighboring Soldatske as in dispute pending further information. If I see confirmation of any towns/cities being liberated, expect both updates and updated maps.
Not in Kherson, but also not to be missed. Warning: The video for this definitely shows humans being injured and killed.
