In the end, the Georgia Senate runoff will all come down to which party turns out more of its diehard voters. But if CNN's latest poll is any indication, independent voters are poised to give incumbent Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock a slight edge over his GOP rival Herschel Walker.
The poll put Warnock ahead of Walker by several points, 52%-48%, with 99% of Democrats supporting Warnock while 95% of Republicans were backing Walker. That's about what we'd expect given the highly tribal nature of our times.
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But independents favored Warnock in the poll by 25 points, 61%-36%. Independent voters, however, will likely make up a smaller share of the electorate on Dec. 6 than they did on Election Day. The CNN survey suggested they would account for 17% of voters versus making up nearly a quarter of the electorate (24%) in the initial round of voting in Georgia.
But again, with the race so close, turnout will be the ballgame. In the initial round, Warnock edged out Walker by a little less than a point, 49.4%-48.5%.
CNN notes that voters under 35 largely prefer Warnock (74% to 25%), while those 65 or older favor Walker by 26 points (63% to 37%).
Younger white voters prefer Walker too, but not by much, while their elders favor Walker by a lot.
Younger White voters are far more closely divided than older White voters (52% Walker to 48% Warnock among White voters younger than 45, while 75% of White voters age 45 or older say they back Walker). Support for Warnock is about the same among younger and older Black voters.
So an electorate that includes a high concentration of younger voters and people of color would be a good sign for Warnock.
And anyone listening to Barack Obama give this hype speech in Georgia is likely fired up and ready to go.
Are you fired up and ready for a 51-seat Democratic majority in the Senate? Give $5 right now to make that dream a reality on Dec. 6!
Early voting is already going strong in Georgia. You can help keep the momentum going and get out the vote from the comfort of your own home. Here are all the activities you can be involved with to help Warnock over the finish line.