Ukraine announced that it is open to a February peace summit at the United Nations with a stipulation that war crimes trials will happen. Branko Milanovic has one compelling explanation for the current war that has at least four possible hypotheses, some of which explain the persistence of oligarchic corruption and nationalist stupidity in the current war.
Thus to get a better understanding of the current war it is important to go back into history. What we observe today is caused by two factors: first, the unsuccessful economic development of the formerly communist countries, and second, the structural political setup that enabled republican elites to cover-up the economic failure by defending the nationalist interests of their constituents. The latter was both an easy solution, and was permitted by the way the regime was organized. If one argued for the return to capitalism, he was likely to end up dismissed from his job, or in jail. But if one argued that his republic was unequally treated, he was likely to climb up the ladders of power.
Legitimation of the national interest as such provided then for the legitimation of nationalist ideologies and ultimately for the desire for national independence, and the wave of nationalism that motivated and followed the revolutions in 1989. The moving force of these revolutions was the same in both ethnically homogeneous and ethically heterogeneous countries: it was nationalism. But nationalism in the first group of countries coalesced with democracy, and nationalism in the latter group of countries, because of unresolved territorial issues, led to wars. Russia was slow to move to a strong nationalist posture, and its reaction can be seen as delayed. But because of its size, large population and enormous military, it represents a much greater threat to peace once nationalism is dominant. For obviously a very small state with the same nationalist ideology is much less of a threat to the world peace than a state with 6,000 nuclear missiles.
Without seeing that the roots of the current conflict are historical and are lodged in the initial setup of communist federations and in the economic failure of the communist model of development, we are unlikely to understand the current conflict, all the unresolved one, and possibly even those that may yet come.
branko2f7.substack.com/…
Ukraine is aiming to hold a peace summit by the end of February – preferably at the United Nations with its secretary general, António Guterres, as a possible mediator – according to its foreign minister.
But Dmytro Kuleba said that Russia could only be invited if the country faced a war crimes tribunal first.
Kuleba also said he was “absolutely satisfied” with the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s
visit to the US last week, and he revealed that the US government had made a special plan to get the
Patriot air defence system, which can shoot down enemy missiles, ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. Usually, the training takes up to a year.
Kuleba said during the interview at the foreign ministry that
Ukraine will do whatever it can to win the war in 2023, adding that diplomacy always plays an important role.
Asked about whether they would invite Russia to the summit, the foreign minister said that Moscow would first need to face prosecution for war crimes at an international court.
“They can only be invited to this step in this way,” Kuleba said.
The Russian authorities were greatly mistaken when they considered the Ukrainians to be prudent, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky — able to negotiate, military expert Yuri Knutov believes.
Russia made a strategic mistake at the stage when the special operation in Ukraine was being planned, Yuri Knutov, the Director of the Museum of Air Defence Forces believes.
According to him, one may draw a parallel between the special military operation and the beginning of the Great Patriotic War, when the Soviet Union tried to avoid a large number of casualties among German soldiers and tried to win them over to its side.
"It took us some time to come to realise that the German soldiers, who came to us as workers and peasants, were not the workers and peasants whom we thought them to be. They came to us to kill and plunder," Yuri Knutov told Ukraina.ru.
Russia also assumed that a peace treaty with the Ukrainian president would be possible. That was another serious mistake, the expert said. The command of the Russian Armed Forces pulled back the troops from Kyiv, but the Zelensky regime took advantage of the situation to get the Armed Forces of Ukraine ready for an offensive.
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A Russian meat mogul 'jumped' from the roof of a hotel In India and was found in a pool of blood. He was a member of the Russian parliament and had recently criticized the Russian invasion.
The 306th day of the Russia-Ukraine War: official operational information by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on 26.12.2022.
During the day, the Russian army carried out 19 MLRS attacks from multiple rocket systems. The threat of Russian air and missile strikes remains on the entire territory of Ukraine.
Russian troops continue to focus their efforts on conducting offensive actions in the Bakhmut and Lyman directions, in the Kupyansk, Avdiivka, and Zaporizhzhia directions – they are trying to improve the tactical position. The Russian army is defending in the Novopavlivsk and Kherson directions.
- In the Volyn, Polissya, Siversk, and Slobozhanskyi directions, the situation has not changed significantly, and no signs of the formation of Russian offensive groups have been detected.
- In the Slobozhansk direction, the districts of Starytsa, Ohirtseve, Vovchansk, and Ridkodub of Kharkiv oblast were hit by artillery fire.
- In the Kupyansk and Lyman directions, the Russian army inflicted fire damage in the areas of more than 20 settlements. Among them are Novomlynsk, Dvorichna, Zapadne, Tabaivka and Berestove in Kharkiv oblast; Ploshchanka and Dibrova in Luhansk oblast and Torske in Donetsk oblast.
- In the Bakhmut and Avdiivka directions, Russian military shelled the areas of more than 30 settlements. In particular, these are Berestove, Bilohorivka, Soledar, Bakhmut, New York, Avdiivka, Vesele, Nevelske, Marinka and Novomykhailivka of the Donetsk oblast.
- In the Novopavlivsk direction, Prechystivka, Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka in Donetsk oblast came under fire from Russian soldiers.
- In the Zaporizhzhia direction, the Russian army shelled more than 15 settlements with tanks, mortars, barrel and rocket artillery. Among them are Novopil in the Donetsk oblast and Olhivske, Malynivka, Dorozhnyanka, Charivne, Bilohirya, Mala Tokmachka, Novodanilivka, Novoandriivka and Mali Shcherbaky in Zaporizhzhia oblast.
- In the Kherson direction, the Russian army continues artillery shelling of populated areas along the right bank of the Dnipro River. In particular, the civilian infrastructure of Novooleksandrivka, Havrylivka, Respublikanets, Novokair, Tomaryne, Tyahynka, Mykilske, Prydniprovske, Inzhenerne, Antonivka and Kherson was affected.
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As investigators piece together clues, Russia has quietly taken steps to begin expensive repairs on the giant gas pipeline, complicating theories about who was behind September’s sabotage.
More than 15 years ago, when the Nord Stream gas pipeline between Russia and Germany was little more than an idea, a Swedish government study warned of the risks inherent in running a critical piece of energy infrastructure along the Baltic Sea floor.
Sabotaging Nord Stream also creates uncertainty about what other infrastructure could be attacked. In addition to damaging the pipeline, the explosion came perilously close to damaging a cable carrying electricity from Sweden to Poland. “You are sending a signal,” said Martin Kragh, deputy director of the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies at the nonprofit Swedish Institute of International Affairs. “It’s signaling ‘We can do this, and we can do this elsewhere.’”
The pipeline would be vulnerable to even the most rudimentary form of sabotage, analysts wrote, and underwater surveillance would be nearly impossible. The 2007 study, written by the Swedish Defense Research Agency, even posited a scenario:
“One diver would be enough to set an explosive device.”
Today, European investigators face almost exactly that scenario. The Swedish authorities leading a criminal investigation have concluded that a state actor was most likely responsible for a September blast that ripped through the gas pipes. Officials and experts say that explosives were probably dropped from ships or — just as the Swedish report warned — planted on the seafloor using submarines or divers.
The Nord Stream attack has been a wartime mystery, prompting finger-pointing and speculation about how — in an era of constant satellite surveillance, in the midst of an energy crisis and with Europe on alert because of the war in Ukraine — a vessel could creep up on a crucial energy conduit, plant a bomb and leave without a trace.
The Baltic Sea, it turns out, was a nearly ideal crime scene. Its floor is latticed with telecommunication cables and pipes that, as had been warned, are not closely monitored. Ships come and go constantly from the nine countries bordering the sea, and vessels can easily hide by turning off their tracking transponders.
[...]
In recent weeks, Nord Stream AG, which is majority-owned by a Kremlin-controlled company, has begun pricing out the cost to repair the pipe and restore gas flow, according to a person briefed on the work who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about it publicly. One repair estimate starts at about $500 million, the person said. Consultants for Russia are also studying how long the damaged pipes can withstand saltwater exposure. The inquiries raise the question of why, if Russia bombed its own pipelines, it would begin the expensive work of repairing them.
www.nytimes.com/...
Unfortunately for the Kremlin, Putin and Medvedev’s good cop, bad cop routine is now failing in the West. The international media spotlight of the past nine months has done much to expose Russian lies and reveal the naked imperial ambition behind Moscow’s talk of phantom fascists and oppressed minorities. Few remain receptive to Putin’s convoluted explanations for the invasion of Ukraine other than ideological allies and those still willing to buy into the Kremlin’s conspiratorial narratives.
The contrasting rhetoric being offered up by Putin and Medvedev has proven more successful among domestic audiences and has helped convince millions of Russians that the Kremlin authorities know what they are doing in Ukraine. Raised in an authoritarian political culture, many Russians find Medvedev’s extremism emotionally appealing and are persuaded by Putin’s more measured approach.
The impact of this strategy is plain to see. While the Russian death toll for the invasion of Ukraine approaches 100,000 and the Russian economy continues its downward slide, there is no sign of any significant domestic opposition to the war. As more Russian sons and husbands return from Ukraine in coffins, the durability of the Kremlin duo will be further tested, but at present their double act appears highly effective.
www.atlanticcouncil.org/...