House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s quest to become speaker of the House is only getting more difficult. McCarthy needs 218 votes, which means that, with 222 House Republicans, the six Republicans who’ve announced they won’t support him leave him short. And that was before another seven Republicans—five currently in office, two entering Congress in January—sent a letter detailing their demands for a potential speaker.
McCarthy is likely to object to two of the letter’s demands in particular: The writers want to make it easier to force a vote on replacing the speaker, which would put McCarthy under constant threat, and they want Republican leadership to commit to staying out of primaries. They’re also demanding more “conservative” representation on major committees. By “conservative,” they mean House Freedom Caucus members or equivalent, as they make clear by noting that just two of the 27 Republicans on the appropriations committee are Freedom Caucus members, and they especially want more of that representation on the rules committee. To top it all off, they also want a “centralized, empowered investigation and action committee to frame and carry out the fight against weaponized government,” or, in translation, attack the Biden administration nonstop.
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The letter is led by Rep. Scott Perry, joined by Reps. Chip Roy, Dan Bishop, Andrew Clyde, and Paul Gosar, along with Reps.-elect Eli Crane and Andy Ogles. None of those seven had previously publicly said what they planned to do in the speaker election—and they still haven’t. What they’ve done is opened their bargaining with McCarthy, who desperately needs their votes. They’re seeking to find out what he’ll give up to achieve his dream, but they’re also telling him that he’ll need to suck up a lot, and bargain away a good bit of power.
The concessions McCarthy has already made, Perry told Axios, aren’t good enough. “We've got to go much further than rules, but we’re happy to have a conversation,” he said. You know, a conversation about how McCarthy can win their votes by making it easy for them to replace him, staying out of primaries, and turbocharging efforts to keep the Biden administration from ever doing anything without facing a barrage of subpoenas.
McCarthy’s struggle to round up the votes to become speaker is a preview of what he’ll face if he does become speaker. Namely, constant fighting and jockeying for position. McCarthy has shown he’s willing to take some of the hostages demanded by the far right, like the debt ceiling, and with it the U.S. economy. But they want still more, and they always will.
The only person who’s declared he’s officially challenging McCarthy is far-right Rep. Andy Biggs. Nobody thinks he’ll win, but that’s not to say there’s not a game plan.
“I don't know anyone that’s predicting anyone that’s predicting Andy Biggs will get 218,” Rep. Bob Good told Axios. “What Andy is courageously doing is opening that door for us to help us deny Kevin the majority.”
And if they succeed at denying McCarthy the majority in a floor fight, there won't be enough popcorn in the world.
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Election season overtime is finally winding down, so Democratic operative Joe Sudbay joins David Nir on The Downballot as a guest-host this week to recap some of the last results that have just trickled in. At the top of the list is the race for Arizona attorney general, where Democrat Kris Mayes has a 510-vote lead with all ballots counted (a mandatory recount is unlikely to change the outcome). Also on the agenda is Arizona's successful Proposition 308, which will allow students to receive financial aid regardless of immigration status.
Over in California, Democrats just took control of the boards of supervisors in two huge counties, Riverside and Orange—in the case of the latter, for the first time since 1976. Joe and David also discuss which Democratic candidates who fell just short this year they'd like to see try again in 2024, and what the GOP's very skinny House majority means for Kevin McCarthy's prospects as speaker.