On Thursday morning, the situation in Ukraine remains more tense, and more uncertain, than it has since Russian President Vladimir Putin began a buildup of Russian forces around its beleaguered neighbor last November. In the last few hours, a kindergarten has been shelled by pro-Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and, despite Russian claims that some forces were being withdrawn from the area, U.S. satellite observations show no such withdrawal. In fact, Russian forces appear to be constructing military hospitals near the border with Ukraine—something many experts view as a critical sign of pending invasion. But things are not all going Russia’s way.
When Putin started the buildup around Ukraine, he may have thought that he had this in the bag. After all, Donald Trump spent four years attacking allies, running down the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and showing Ukraine that all the U.S. wanted from them was more corruption. The most important European member of NATO is heavily dependent on Russian natural gas. The pandemic has left the U.S., Canada, and the U.K. even more politically divided—with the assistance of some good old fashioned propaganda. Ukraine itself has still been unable to shake off two decades of deliberate Russian interference, invasion, and funding of separatists. This must have looked like a cakewalk.
Now if Putin invades he is certain to get the one thing he said he feared at the outset: a NATO army camped on his doorstep. And he may get it even if he doesn’t invade.
The pretext of defending Russia against “aggression” from the Ukraine that has been so ripped by constant war fueled by Russian funds, Russian arms, and not-so-secret Russian troops was never more than laughable. Russia has not only invaded Ukraine and taken some of its most valuable territories, it has fueled both military and political conflict that has ensured Ukraine can’t become the kind of stable and vital democracy in former Soviet territory that has been achieved elsewhere.
Russia’s actions against Ukraine—including employing former Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort to help ensure Ukraine did not become part of NATO a decade ago—have ensured that not only is a section of eastern Ukraine completely cut off from services and the people there held hostage, but that the entire country suffers economic and political instability.
Putin’s claims against Ukraine are entirely equivalent to a bully who keeps smashing a smaller kid’s hand into that kid’s face while saying, “Why do you keep punching yourself?” Only Putin is also using this as a pretext for doing some direct punching.
What Putin didn’t count on was that over the last two months, President Joe Biden has worked tirelessly to bring NATO together and to confront Russia in a way that goes way beyond a finger-waggle and sanctions on a select list of oligarchs. Biden has demonstrated his ability to play hardball in two phone calls with Putin, including making direct threats against the assets that Russia cares about most: its gas pipelines into Europe.
Biden has made it clear that should Russia take military action in Ukraine, the U.S. will move to shut down those pipelines. To bolster that claim, the U.S. has already moved to make more natural gas available to Europe, and to accelerate plans for making Germany and other nations less dependent on Russian oil and gas. This action alone represents a real threat to the Russian economy, one that affects Russia’s ability to maintain its (shrinking) military and (crumbling) infrastructure.
NATO has emerged from the last two months stronger, more unified, and more committed to acting against the kind of aggression Putin has displayed. As Defense News reports, NATO members are considering stationing additional troops both along the eastern and southeastern borders of the alliance as part of a “package of measures” to strengthen the posture against Russia. The numbers now under discussion are relatively small—1,000 troops each to four nations—but the growing consensus at NATO is that the whole organization needs an eastward shift, bringing troops, bases, and equipment closer to the only current threat.
With the U.S. adding another 5,000 troops and F-15 fighter jets to be stationed in Poland, any movement into Ukraine would immediately give Russian forces multiple borders defended directly by NATO forces. Even if Russia doesn’t go into Ukraine at this point, it’s likely that the eastern shift of NATO troops will be lasting, with some discussion about the leadership for new eastern battlegroups and an eastern command.
"We're also going to consider a more long-term adjustment of posture,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said.
By threatening Ukraine, Putin has tested the NATO alliance—and he can’t be too happy about the results of that test so far. Even so, Putin may decide to move into Ukraine anyway, confident that his gas pipelines make him immune to any real punishment. He may even be right.
No matter what happens going forward, Putin has generated the result he claimed to be afraid of in the beginning: NATO forces knocking at his door. Every day this standoff continues is likely to strengthen NATO’s position, increase determination to avoid such threats in the future, and improve support for making Ukraine and other nations direct members of the alliance.
If Vladimir Putin assumed he was going to glide into Ukraine, complete another step in his dream of rebuilding the Soviet empire, and get away with nothing but some statements of “serious concern” and a few easily dodged sanctions … that’s not happening.
But the idea that Putin has suffered political frustration won’t matter much for the people trapped in the middle of the fighting should Russia move.