A three-judge panel has until Feb. 23 to decide whether the new North Carolina congressional and legislative maps passed late on Thursday meet the standards the state Supreme Court set when it rejected the GOP’s original plans as “unlawful partisan gerrymanders” and ordered new ones. As we’ll discuss, the new congressional plan remains something of a Republican-friendly gerrymander while still creating several potential battlegrounds.
Democrats currently control only five of the state’s 13 congressional districts, and even with the state gaining a 14th seat, a bad midterm could leave Team Blue with even fewer members than they have now. However, this map has a surprisingly high number of competitive seats: In an especially good Democratic year, this could potentially turn into a map where each party holds seven districts—or, if absolutely every card gets played right, an outright eight-to-six Democratic majority.
Based on Dave’s Redistricting App data for the newly passed map, Democrats start with three very safe Democratic seats: Deborah Ross’ 2nd District in Raleigh; the open 4th in Durham and Chapel Hill, where David Price is not seeking reelection; and Alma Adams’ 12th in Charlotte. There is the light blue 1st in eastern North Carolina where Rep. G.K. Butterfield is retiring, which joins towns like Greenville, Rocky Mount, and Wilson and would have favored Biden 53-46. This district has the highest African American percentage in the state, though it still has a 49-42 white plurality. The GOP originally tried to make this seat much more vulnerable to a pickup: Biden won the old 1st 54-45, while the now-defunct GOP map (which renumbered this as the 2nd District) dropped his margin to 51-48.
Finally, there is one other district that Biden would have carried, but only just. The new 7th, which he would have won 49.4-49.0, joins together the odd combination of coastal college/resort town Wilmington and inland military outpost Fayetteville. Republican Rep. David Rouzer represents just over half this new seat, but since he’s never had to win in turf this blue, it’s possible he’ll instead barge into the adjacent 13th in Raleigh’s southern suburbs. The 13th has no incumbent running there, though unfortunately for Rouzer, it’s still potentially competitive at 50-48 Trump.
That leaves one other member of the Democratic caucus: Kathy Manning, who will most likely run in the new 6th District, which covers Greensboro but also rural areas to its south, and would have gone for Trump by a tiny 49.4-49.2. Manning, for her part, said Friday she’d wait for the courts to rule on the constitutionality of the map before making any decisions. Two Republicans have announced bids here: former Rep. Renee Elmers and former North Carolina State University football player Bo Hines, who has the backing of the Club for Growth.
The final competitive district is the new 14th, which includes Gastonia and Charlotte’s western suburbs and would have supported Trump 49.4-49.1. There’s no Republican incumbent, and state House Speaker Tim Moore would likely run here if he seeks a promotion to Congress in 2022.
The other remaining Republicans all keep their dark red districts: Greg Murphy in the 3rd; Virginia Foxx in the 5th; Richard Hudson in the 8th; Dan Bishop in the 9th; Patrick McHenry in the 10th; and Madison Cawthorn in the 11th. The unaccounted-for Republican member is Senate candidate Ted Budd, who would have been double-bunked with Hudson had he instead run for reelection.
