Republican Reps. Rodney Davis of Illinois and David McKinley of West Virginia have some things in common: They both voted to certify the 2020 election, and now they're both facing primaries from Trump-backed GOP incumbents who were redistricted out of their seats.
The two men are also defying expectations in the money race to keep their seats while their GOP challengers turn in underwhelming fundraising numbers. Davis' opponent in Illinois' 15th District, Rep. Mary Miller, featured a quote from Adolf Hitler during the pre-insurrection speech she gave on Jan. 5, the day before pro-Trump terrorists stormed and desecrated the U.S. Capitol.
“Each generation has the responsibility to teach and train the next generation. You know if we win a few elections, we’re still going to be losing unless we win the hearts and minds of our children," Miller said at the "Save the Republic" rally. "This is the battle. Hitler was right on one thing. He said, ‘Whoever has the youth has the future.’"
Miller later apologized for the comments but, alongside her objection to certifying the 2020 election, it was clearly enough to earn Trump's endorsement. That, however, hasn't translated into clear momentum for Miller, according to CNN.
Miller raised less than $165,000 in the fourth quarter of 2021, bringing her fundraising totals of the year to $788,000. By contrast, Davis hauled in some $421,000 in the final quarter of 2021, bringing his total on the cycle to $1.8 million. Davis also had $1.2 million cash-on-hand to begin the year, while Miller claimed just $415,000 at the outset of 2022.
A similar dynamic is playing out in West Virginia's 2nd District, where McKinley is trying to fend off Rep. Alex Mooney. McKinley not only voted to certify the election, he voted in favor of forming an independent commission to investigate Jan. 6.
Mooney secured Trump's endorsement in November, but his fourth-quarter fundraising totaled just $200,000, one of his lowest showings, according to CNN.
McKinley, on the other hand, amassed $1.1 million in the final quarter last year, though $500,000 of it was self-funded. Trump-backed Mooney does have a cash-on-hand advantage in this race however, ending 2021 with $2.4 million, more than double McKinley's $1.6 million.
The congressional races in Illinois' 15th and West Virginia's 2nd reflect a broader pattern of underperformance by Trump's picks in their primary races—which should presumably be gimmes once they get the Trump nod.
Those stumbles include high-profile races such Georgia's contest for governor, where Trump-backed David Perdue appears to be floundering in his bid to unseat incumbent GOP Gov. Brian Kemp.
It also includes Trump's effort to oust Rep. Liz Cheney from her at-large seat representing Wyoming. In the final quarter of 2021, Cheney took in $2 million—besting the haul of her Trump-backed challenger, Harriet Hageman, by a whopping $1.6 million.
Money isn't everything in politics, but it undoubtedly gives candidates a sizable advantage. We have yet to see how Trump's candidates actually perform in their primaries, but by and large, many of them have proven underwhelming thus far, calling into question just how much of a kingmaker Trump really is in the GOP.
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